I wonder how many people are ready for just how bad the next six weeks plus are going to be. This is going to be the most dangerous election since 1860, with substantial odds that America as we know it will be damaged or even destroyed 1/
Trump's campaign strategy is to brazen it out with obvious lies: the virus isn't a threat, we have a vaccine, the economy is booming, violent mobs are roaming the streets of New York. Many people will believe him 2/
Even so, it probably — probably — won't be enough. He's behind in the polls, and the two most cited models give him a 15-23 percent chance of winning 3/

projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-…
There is, however, a near-zero percent chance that he'll accept the result if he loses. He'll try to stop counting of absentee ballots, claim massive fraud, and probably try to get the Supreme Court to overturn the result 4/
Expect violence from Trump supporters, maybe lots of it, both to disrupt voting on Election Day and in the days that follow. Is this overheated? So far Trump and his party have borne out every prediction by pessimists and made fools of optimists 5/
If you aren't terrified, you aren't paying attention. But terror isn't productive; you should be asking what you personally can do to save democracy, which is very much under threat 6/

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More from @paulkrugman

4 Dec
So, I was too busy to comment on the jobs numbers this AM. But let's step back: you should see where we are in the context of Trump's decision, back in April, to stop fighting the virus and in fact bully states into relaxing restrictions 1/
This was supposed to lead to rapid economic recovery; in fact, after a few months the recovery slowed and has now effectively stalled, with the US still ~10 million jobs down 2/ Image
Meanwhile, the virus was supposed to go away; instead, 200,000 more people have died, with high likelihood that another 100,000 or more will die before Trump leaves office 3/ Image
Read 4 tweets
4 Dec
I write about debt; couldn't resist the Strangelove reference 1/ nytimes.com/2020/12/03/opi…
Now, many people will surely start waving around frightening-looking projections, like those of the CBO 2/ cbo.gov/publication/56…
But while I respect CBO's integrity, those long-run debt projections are much more questionable than people probably realize. Realistic projections, I (and many sensible economists) argue, are much less alarming 3/
Read 10 tweets
2 Dec
More on fiscal issues: once Biden is in office, expect Rs to wave around a lot of charts purporting to show a dangerous long-run debt trajectory. And to be fair, long-term CBO projections show a big rise in debt 1/
But what's driving those projections? Mainly it's rising interest costs — which in turn are driven largely by the assumption that rates will rise a lot 2/
But as Furman and Summers point out, CBO has consistently projected big rate increases that haven't happened 3/ piie.com/system/files/d…
Read 6 tweets
28 Nov
This is going to be a very dark and tragic winter — especially tragic because so many Americans are going to die unnecessarily 1/ nytimes.com/2020/11/27/hea…
We've known since the early days of the pandemic that it was crucial to flatten the curve to avoid overloading the health care system 2/ nytimes.com/article/flatte…
And the case for flattening the curve is especially strong now that we know that a vaccine is on the way: at this point an infection postponed for a few months may well be an infection avoided 3/
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov
So Trump lost, but we're still talking about why so many people voted for him. And story seems to be that millions thought "We feel disrespected by liberal elites, who think we're stupid. So we're going to own them by ... 1/
voting for a corrupt, dishonest, incompetent guy who barely conceals his contempt for his own supporters." I honestly have no idea how we're supposed to deal with this 2/
To say that many Trump supporters basically engaged in a massive self-own sounds condescending; yet what could be more condescending than pretending that this isn't exactly what happened? 3/
Read 5 tweets
26 Nov
The first major decision from the Trump-packed court — and, naturally, it will kill people 1/ nytimes.com/2020/11/26/us/…
The bad logic is obvious. Suppose I adhere to a religion whose rituals include dumping neurotoxins into public reservoirs. Does the principle of religious freedom give me the right to do that? 2/
Freedom of belief, yes; the right to hurt other people in tangible ways — which large gatherings in a pandemic definitely do — no. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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