John Hayward Profile picture
23 Sep, 10 tweets, 2 min read
The question hanging over this whole election has been whether voters who aren't already committed partisans are willing to make it purely a referendum on Donald Trump, with an invisible generic Democrat as the alternative.
It worked for Biden for a while because people are angry and frightened over the coronavirus, and because Trump does tend to make himself the center of attention. The first debate is really the moment when voters will decide if the Generic Democrat is an acceptable alternative.
I don't think that game will work for much longer. One reason for tightening polls is that people are working through bad feelings about Trump, driven by saturation anti-Trump media coverage, and starting to wonder what the alternative really is. That's very bad for Biden.
The electorate changes over the course of generations, so maybe this has changed too, but in the past it's always been tough to make presidential races pure referendums on the incumbent. It's been tried, and sometimes the incumbent looks vulnerable in early polls.
But eventually people start asking about who the other guy is, and what he's planning to do, and what forces he would bring into the White House with him. The incumbent is seen in a new light as the challenger's weaknesses are considered. Voters update their scorecards.
Even the elder George Bush didn't lose in a pure thumbs-down referendum on the incumbent. He had Perot splitting the vote and Clinton hustling hard to sell himself as the "Man from Hope." If Clinton ran like Biden is running now, it probably wouldn't have worked.
The big issue in this election is still the return to normalcy, and if Biden stays in the basement, it will be much harder for him to sell himself as the one who can deliver it. Dems aren't helping with their apocalyptic freak-outs over the Supreme Court.
Right at the moment when Biden's trying to cap off the Democrat campaign of domestic terrorism - vote for us and the cities won't burn any more - the rest of his party is howling threats to pack the Supreme Court or start ignoring it, hotwire the Senate, blow up the system.
Dems are making it harder to sell themselves as the return to normal, and it will be exceptionally difficult for Biden to do that if he stays invisible and counts on a pure anti-Trump referendum vote to carry the election. Hard to close the deal without talking to the customer.
Think of it this way: at some point, people have heard all they want to hear about, or from, the incumbent. They turn to the challenger... and if they hear silence, nonsense, or mumbles, they turn back to the incumbent, who gets that precious chance to close the deal. /end

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with John Hayward

John Hayward Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Doc_0

27 Oct
How can anyone look at the greedy, power-mad, emotionally unstable, petulant Democrats and think life would get better in any way by giving them authority? A party given to tantrums and violent thuggery will not suddenly mature and grow respectful of dissent if given power.
The arrogance and privilege of Dems like Nancy "Secret Salon" Pelosi shows you how little they think of their own followers, never mind the opposing voters they viscerally hate. And it shows you they have no intention of living in the hell they create for YOU.
There is no reason not to believe Democrats when they promise to make war against the Constitution, against the Supreme Court, against capitalism and the middle class, against everyone who doesn't obey their commands. They've proven they mean it.
Read 21 tweets
26 Oct
The myth of benevolent totalitarianism is pernicious and incredibly dangerous. Totalitarianism, the politicization of everything, NEVER ends well - no matter how benevolent and high-minded the totalitarians claim to be.
There is no way to pluck the "good" features from collectivist systems while discarding the "bad" stuff. There is no way to use totalitarianism to reprogram the public in a positive way, building a utopia by controlling the speech and thought of the public.
There is no "deeper freedom" that is nourished and preserved by cracking down hard on the "superficial" freedoms of speech, assembly, and property. That's one of the sickest lies of Marxism - the promise to "liberate" people from capitalist responsibility and material need.
Read 8 tweets
23 Oct
DNC Media frames the Hunter Biden stuff as if Joe just helped his poor kid get a job at Wal-Mart so he could put food on the table between stints in rehab.

Hunter had a THRIVING influence peddling business that raked in millions, year after year. His customers seem satisfied.
In fact, has anyone yet come up with evidence that any of the shady foreign operators and agents of hostile powers that stuffed money into Hunter's pockets were dissatisfied with his services? Nobody seems to regret paying him off. No one acts like they wasted money on him.
The bombshell emails uncovered in the Forbidden Story of Doom, and other evidence discovered since then, make it crystal clear that all of those dodgy business partners and enemy agents knew EXACTLY what they were buying from Hunter: influence and access. No pretense otherwise.
Read 7 tweets
23 Oct
Joe Biden exemplifies the kind of witless globalist foreign policy that allowed fascist China to become a hegemonic world power. They think every problem is "solved" by holding meetings and issuing press releases.
It's an extension of the left-wing dogma that domestic problems are "solved" by loudly announcing how much you care about them and demanding billion-dollar government programs to address them. What the programs actually DO, or fail to do, is irrelevant.
China long ago mastered the art of exploiting the globalists by studying their bloviations in Western media telling them exactly what they want to hear. Then China actually DOES the exact opposite, but it doesn't matter because they said the right things at the right forums.
Read 15 tweets
23 Oct
Remember, aggressive ignorance is an important way for left-wingers to signal their unthinking, absolute loyalty to The Cause. They make a point of knowing nothing about guns or gun laws while yelling for gun control; likewise with immigration, abortion, etc.
Imagine if someone in one of these buzzing lefty hives spoke up and said, "Actually, guys 'coyote' is a well-understood term for human traffickers and there's a ton of documentary evidence about them being involved in the big migration waves of the past few decades."
They'd be torn to shreds by the rest of the hive. It would be like those scenes in The Walking Dead where people are covered in zombie guts, trying to shuffle through a horde, but they make a false move and the zombies devour them.
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
If Trump wins despite oceans of polls giving Biden big leads, Big Tech putting every thumb it has on the scales for Biden, and legacy media smothering stories that hurt Biden like WW2 soldiers throwing themselves on hand grenades, it will shake the pillars of punditry Heaven.
Of course, Trump's 2016 event was a "black swan" event as far as pundits were concerned - a black swan the size of Mothra descending upon Washington D.C. Remember how they promised they'd get in touch with voters, learn from their mistakes, become bubbled and blinkered?
Yeah, none of that happened. DNC Media doubled down on its political biases, made its bubble thicker, made its blinkers bigger, and effectively took over the Biden 2020 campaign while their candidate hides in the basement. Fake news stories became their hottest product.
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!