Otoh, R campaigns, including the Trump campaign, are pushing their voters to cast ballots by mail, indicating that campaign professionals believe it is the optimal way for their side to run up the numbers (which it generally is)
Typically about 1% of mail ballots are rejected and there isn't a big partisan difference in who votes by mail, so that doesnt matter much. But mail voting tends to increase turnout by well over 1%, so it's a net gain in participation.
(And if only one party is using it, that party will net votes, barring a catastrophic failure)
Now, is it possible there will be a catastrophic failure this year with all that's going on? Yes, of course. But that probably shouldn't be your presumption if you're war-gaming this.
Also, if you're war-gaming it, there's an equal chance of a catastrophic election day failure -- long lines at polling stations, polling stations closed, a storm and flooding, etc. So, again, it isn't just automatic that the people who vbm will turn out to be the suckers.
Finally, there has been a really remarkable series of Democratic panics over this
1) Chaos will lead to ballots not being counted. (Record turnout in primaries)
2) Trump is rigging USPS to kill mail voting (Postal service says mail voting should be fine)
And now 3) Trump will use the red mirage to get R state legislatures to appoint their own electors and steal the election.

Possible? Sure. But it'd require a very, very specific set of facts to happen, a 2000 Florida-like finish in the key state(s).

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More from @NickRiccardi

3 May
Diaz is gonna blow this, isn't he?
Yep
The Diaz meltdown in 2019 began in Philadelphia. And here we go again....
Read 6 tweets
24 Sep 20
"According to booking data from TripIt, a travel organizing app, Denver is the third-most popular fall travel destination this year." Seriously? Don't you people have somewhere better to go?! washingtonpost.com/travel/tips/de…
Denver is fine but if you're gonna come here you should really just keep driving west and visit the mountains. Denver is your typical pleasant western lifestyle town, but the mountains are just amazing.
Random list of places you could go in the fall that are better than Denver, even w crazy limited travel and the west coast on fire:

1) New Orleans
2) New York
3) New England (their fall color is better)
4) Florida (beaches! Just watch for hurricanes)
5) Santa Fe/NM
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep 20
This isn't the way people live their lives!
Jordan clarifies in the thread that he's just looking for a nudge like endowing a lab at University of Wyoming, but....this isn't gonna spark an exodus of blue staters. Have you been to southern Wyoming? It's an acquired taste.
In fact if you want to live a lovely western lifestyle and be 2 hours from Denver there are already a wide range of options in places not as cold and windy and bleak as the Laramie area. They're all in the state of Colorado, which is pretty reliably blue.
Read 4 tweets
22 Sep 20
Actually the Supreme Court has been conservative for decades
This isn't subjective. There's been a conservative majority for a long time
There has been a continued pull rightward with conservatives complaining various justices (Kennedy, Roberts now) aren't "conservative," but they are actually in the conservative majority.
Read 5 tweets
21 Sep 20
The parties don't get to pick their ideological formation. They exist in response to societal trends and the Ds' shifts are due to an increasing college-educated population clustering in metro areas that are also magnets for immigration + job growth.
The fact that this coalition is now a majority of the US population and increasingly a majority of presidential election voters but not well distributed for the electoral college/Senate is a feature, not a bug, of the coalition.
I keep seeing stuff like this and yes, tactically this is absolutely what the party should do. But its voters aren't going to play along -- they're a majority, why should they have to adjust their views to win elections?
Read 4 tweets
18 Sep 20
Only 1 in 4 Latinos views themselves as a person of color. Why Latino politics isn’t what you think nytimes.com/2020/09/18/opi…
A crude assumption that Latinos will essentially replicate the black political experience and be a voting bloc that can be rallied by ethnic solidarity underlies a lot of assumptions about the demographic. It is a very big error.
(Also a crude understanding of black voters but that’s a thread for another day)
Read 5 tweets

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