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(((James Acton))) Profile picture
@james_acton32
Sep 23, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
<THREAD>Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov responded to @USArmsControl in an interview with @ElenaChernenko. Beyond the predictable lack of interest in U.S. proposals, two points caught my eye.

**ONE IS ACTUALLY GOOD NEWS!!**

(1/n)

mid.ru/en/foreign_pol…
First, the good news. If Biden wins, Ryabkov did not rule out agreeing to a New START extension in the time between Biden's inauguration (Jan 20) and the treaty's expiry (Feb 5).

Previously, Russian officials and experts had said that time would be too short. (2/n)
Second, in his interview, @USArmsControl explicitly threatened that, if New START is not extended, the U.S. will "unconvert" converted delivery systems so they can be used to deliver nuclear warheads. (3/n)

In my onion, it was a bad idea to make this threat explicit at the same time as the U.S. is trying to convince Russia that U.S. conversion procedures are effective. And sure enough... (4/4) Image

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More from @james_acton32

(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Oct 1
Bad move. As U.S. policies make the ME more unstable--including by increasing the likelihood of Iran's acquiring nukes--we pledge to defend Qatar.

If Trump believes the U.S. should defend Qatar, he should negotiate a treaty and present it to the Senate, not issue an EO. (1/n)
There's a real debate to be had about U.S. interests in the ME (one that the China firsters within USG are losing).

But, even if you think the U.S. should defend Qatar, it's indefensible--as a matter of basic democratic accountability--to make the commitment via an EO. (2/n)
Defending another country is a huge deal--primarily because it could involve fighting a war, conceivably even a nuclear war, on that state's behalf.

Accordingly, in the past, guarantees like the Qatar commitment have been offered as treaties that require.... (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Jul 28
On Friday, I argued in @ForeignPolicy that Trump admin claims it had set Iran back by "years" were true but disingenuous.

The same day, the normally excellent @IgnatiusPost amplified the misleading U.S. and Israeli narratives.

Let's take a look...

(Links below). (1/n)
First off, here are links for my @ForeignPolicy and @IgnatiusPost's @washingtonpost piece.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/25/ira…

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/…

(2/n)
@ForeignPolicy @IgnatiusPost @washingtonpost Ignatius's oped is written as if it's a news story. The "news" in this case is that--SURPRISE!--an Israeli source backed up claims by the Israeli government! (3/n) Image
Read 12 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Jul 21
🧵How much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program?

An analysis of Friday's reporting of the U.S. government assessment. I'll focus on the @nytimes, which was clearer than the earlier but confused @NBCNews story. (1/n) Image
U.S. officials continue to argue that it would take Iran years to rebuild the facilities that were hit. That seems right to me.

But a key question is this: How long would it take Iran to build the bomb? (2/n) Image
Image
Attempts to play down the survival of most or all of Iran's HEU are comical.

It may be true that "only" the HEU at Isfahan is accessible--but that's almost all of it! (3/n) Image
Read 13 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Jul 9
🧵Introducing optimal deterrence.

Here's my proposed U.S. nuclear strategy for managing escalation, arms racing, and proliferation with two nuclear peers, published through @CFR_org.

Health warning: If you like counterforce, take a DEEP breath before reading on. (1/n) Image
The U.S. faces a security environment that's bad and getting worse. There's an emerging bipartisan consensus that, in response, the U.S. needs more nukes. The justification stems from the current policy of "counterforce" targeting. (2/n)

cfr.org/report/optimal…Image
The logic of counterforce targeting is merciless, however, and will catalyze an expensive, tension-generating, and futile three-ways arms race in which the United States will fail to achieve the nuclear superiority it seeks. (3/n) Image
Read 10 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Jun 26
How effective were strikes against Iran?

U.S. and Israeli officials stress how long it would take Iran to rebuild its previous nuclear program.

But there's a MUCH more important issue: How long it would take Iran to get the bomb? For that, a small program would suffice. (1/n)
As in yesterday’s Axios article, these officials stress the damage done to Iran’s major declared facilities.

But the main issue isn't whether the U.S. & Israel severely damaged what they attacked; I'm sure they did. It's what they did NOT attack. (2/n)

axios.com/2025/06/25/ira…Image
I'm sure Israel did indeed destroy "several" centrifuge production lines.

But what about the stockpile of centrifuge components that Iran has ALREADY produced?

Israel has not claimed to have hit them--which suggests Iran could rebuild a new enrichment plant. (3/n) Image
Read 11 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Jun 24
How far has military action set back Iran's nuclear program?

Netanyahu says 2-3 years.

JD Vance says "substantially."

In @politico, I argue that Iran could build the bomb in a year. And it now has much stronger reasons to do so. (1/n) Image
Iran still has its own nuclear triad: highly enriched uranium, centrifuge components, and expertise.

That's right.

A war waged nominally for nonproliferation has left Iran with several bombs worth of un-safeguarded highly enriched uranium. (2/n)

politico.com/news/magazine/…
IAEA DG @rafaelmgrossi has indicated, pretty explicitly, it was removed by Iran to locations unknown before the war began. (3/n)

iaea.org/newscenter/sta…Image
Read 7 tweets

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