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(((James Acton))) Profile picture
@james_acton32
Sep 23, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
<THREAD>Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov responded to @USArmsControl in an interview with @ElenaChernenko. Beyond the predictable lack of interest in U.S. proposals, two points caught my eye.

**ONE IS ACTUALLY GOOD NEWS!!**

(1/n)

mid.ru/en/foreign_pol…
First, the good news. If Biden wins, Ryabkov did not rule out agreeing to a New START extension in the time between Biden's inauguration (Jan 20) and the treaty's expiry (Feb 5).

Previously, Russian officials and experts had said that time would be too short. (2/n)
Second, in his interview, @USArmsControl explicitly threatened that, if New START is not extended, the U.S. will "unconvert" converted delivery systems so they can be used to deliver nuclear warheads. (3/n)

In my onion, it was a bad idea to make this threat explicit at the same time as the U.S. is trying to convince Russia that U.S. conversion procedures are effective. And sure enough... (4/4) Image

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More from @james_acton32

(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Sep 25
🧵Initial thoughts on Russia's new nuclear doctrine, based on a machine translation of Putin's comments. (I have not seen the doctrine yet; my assessment may change when I do).

BLUF: It's not tied as directly to the Ukraine war as others think. (1/n)

kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Here's the key passage (thanks, @ChatGPTapp).

(2/n) Image
@ChatGPTapp As has been reported, Putin is saying he might use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear weapon state that attacked Russia in concert with a nuclear-weapon state.

This mirror U.S. declaratory policy until 2009 (I think), which contained a similar provision. (3/n)
Read 13 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Aug 5
This thread is a transparent attempt by Colby to foreclose scrutiny of his behavior around the insurrection on Jan 6, 2021. I want to explain what he did and why it shouldn't be ignored.

(Like all my tweets, these are my personal views.)



(1/n)
My criticism of Colby is nothing to do with his conservative views. We were friends—good friends—for years. We regularly had lunch or dinner. I went to Rio for his wedding. He came to mine. Throughout that time, we disagreed a lot about policy—domestic and foreign—but...

(2/n)
… we discussed those disagreements in a good-faith, productive way. We found common ground on nuclear policy and wrote together. I read part of his book manuscript and he thanked me in his acknowledgments.

(3/n)


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Read 19 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
May 24
🧵Entanglement in action.

Ukraine has reportedly attacked the Russian early-warning radar at Armavir. This strike was a bad idea. It provided only limited military benefit to Ukraine and exacerbates nuclear risks.

It's time for the U.S. to act. (1/n)

The Armavir radar is part of Russia's "strategic" early warning system. It is designed to detect an incoming nuclear strike and enable Russia to launch its nuclear forces before they are destroyed. Image
However, such radars can also contribute to nonnuclear warfighting--not least by detecting nonnuclear ballistic missiles and enabling defenses. I assume that Ukraine hit this radar to help U.S.-supplied ATACMS penetrate Russian defenses. (3/n)
Read 21 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Nov 8, 2023
At @CSIS @csisponi yesterday, Frank Miller engaged with my recent essay on targeting. In a collegial spirit, I'd like to respond to him here--he has mispresented me--and accept his offer to a public debate.

Link:

Here's the transcript. (1/n) csis.org/events/project…


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First, I do not claim or imply in my recent essays that changing U.S. targeting policy would induce Beijing or Moscow to make changes to theirs.

I do not believe that our making changes would induce them to do so. (2/n)

warontherocks.com/2023/11/two-my…
I believe the United States should adopt CMI targeting (Conventional Military forces and war-supporting Industry) because it would make us and our allies more secure, whether or not China or Russia changed their targeting policies (which, again, I don't think they would). (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Jun 24, 2023
<THREAD>There's been evidence-free speculation that Prigozhin may try to seize a nuclear weapon or two. I think this fear is misplaced. That said, there is a nuclear risk associated with this insurrection--one that isn't yet being discussed. (1/n)
CAVEAT: The situation on the ground in Russia is clearly very fluid and unpredictable, and I'm certainly not going to try to predict what's going to happen. Here I aim to assess what we should worry about NOT how worried we should be. (2/n)
An armed insurrection in a nuclear-armed state is clearly disquieting (even if its current leader goes around invading his neighbors). But, for two reasons, I don't see Prigozhin (who probably isn't much better BTW) seeking a nuclear weapon. (3/n)
Read 15 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Mar 28, 2023
<THREAD>China now appears to have a comprehensive early-warning system against a U.S. first strike, allowing it to operationalize launch-under-attack options.

Stay tuned a new discovery: a new-ish Chinese radar that rotates (no, not Korla).

(1/n)
As Chinese sources and the Pentagon have reported, China has been developing an early-warning (EW) system for a decade-ish so it could launch its nuclear forces before being destroyed by a US first strike (launch under attack). (2/n)

media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/20… Image
Recent analyses have suggested China’s EW system is not yet complete. According to one news story, the geostationary TJS-2, -5, and -6 satellites are for EW. If so, they'd detect US Trident-D5 launches from the pacific, BUT… (3/n)

spaceflightnow.com/2021/02/07/chi… Image
Read 23 tweets

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