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stuart mcdonald Profile picture
@ActuaryByDay
Sep 23, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Latest COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths data for England has been published.

Daily admissions rose rapidly over last two days, reaching 237 Sunday and 275 Monday, after a few days at around 200.

The increase in the moving average implies doubling time of 10-11 days. Image
For those who’ve asked, here is the same admissions data plotted on a log scale. A straight line increase implies exponential growth. Image
Average daily COVID-19 hospital deaths in England has increased from under five on 31 Aug to over 20 in recent days.

For more discussion see my recent @COVID19actuary bulletin which explains how we correct for reporting delays.

👉 covid-arg.com/bulletins Image
It was great to have a chance to discuss this admissions and deaths data Radio 4 @BBCMoreOrLess today.

The podcast is now available if you missed it or want to listen again.

bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0…

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More from @ActuaryByDay

stuart mcdonald Profile picture
Feb 25
There’s a lot of confusion about the new ONS excess deaths methodology. Some thoughts on the model, its limitations and #ExcessDeaths in general.

These are personal views. I don’t speak for ONS or any other organisations or individuals involved in updating the method. 1/17
Firstly, neither the new method nor the 5-year average it replaces, were designed for measuring the impact of a multi-year pandemic on mortality.

I’ve said this before but it bears repeating. 2/17
The first question to ask about excess deaths (or excess anything!) is 'excess over what?'

The new method gives the excess over mortality expected at the start of the year. So expectations for 2024 reflect the fact that we've seen higher mortality rates since the pandemic. 3/17
Read 17 tweets
stuart mcdonald Profile picture
Dec 4, 2023
Our new commentary published in @LancetRH_Europe discusses the ongoing excess deaths in the UK, and for the first time provides granular analysis by age, place and cause.

Excess deaths now highest for middle-aged adults, driven by cardiovascular causes.
thelancet.com/journals/lanep…
Excess deaths arise directly and indirectly from the Covid pandemic. This includes:
- increased pressure on NHS urgent care services, resulting in poorer patient outcomes
- direct effects of Covid-19 infection
- disruption to chronic disease prevention, detection and management.
Newly published data from @OHID shows that, from June 2022 to June 2023, excess deaths were highest for ages 50-64, at 15% above normal.

In comparison, excess deaths were 11% higher than expected for under 25s and 25-49s, and were 9% higher for over 65s.
Read 9 tweets
stuart mcdonald Profile picture
Oct 6, 2023
This week the CMI released an international comparison of excess mortality during the coronavirus pandemic (using data up to end 2022).

England & Wales (E&W) had the 3rd highest excess mortality of Western European and Nordic comparators, since the start of the pandemic. Image
Austria and Italy are the only Western European and Nordic countries analysed with higher excess mortality than E&W since the start of the pandemic.

The Western European and Nordic countries analysed with the lowest excess mortality are Norway and Sweden. Image
When compared to all countries analysed, E&W had the 9th highest excess mortality since the start of the pandemic.

Bulgaria had highest, followed by Poland and USA.

New Zealand (NZ), Australia and Norway have the lowest excess.

NZ mortality has been lower than pre-pandemic! Image
Read 8 tweets
stuart mcdonald Profile picture
Oct 4, 2023
On @BBCMoreOrLess this morning I was delighted to have the opportunity to debunk the most ludicrous claim I’ve yet been asked to address!

John Campbell shared a video with his 2.9 million followers with claims of over 150,000 excess deaths compared to if no-one was vaccinated.
In the video John repeated and endorsed incorrect claims made in an anonymous blog by “the nobody who knows everybody” that there have been over 150,000 excess deaths as a result of people getting vaccinated.

Here is how and why we can be certain this is completely false. 🧵 Image
The claims in the blog:
1. Death rates lower for unvaccinated than vaccinated ❌
2. If no-one vaccinated there’d have been under 340,000 deaths in a year in England ❌
3. There were actually 490,000 deaths that year ❌
4. So over 150,000 excess deaths due to vaccines. ❌
Read 20 tweets
stuart mcdonald Profile picture
Sep 6, 2023
Another day, another viral post sharing vaccine misinformation.

Has @tniwef really discovered “proof of a mRNA Disaster!”

Unsurprisingly, that’s a firm “No!”

Can you see what they did wrong? 🧵 Image
Let’s zoom in on that graph.

It shows that the % of all cause deaths from vaccinated people aged 18plus is:
1. Higher than the % of all cause deaths from unvaccinated people
2. Higher than the % of people aged 18 plus who have been vaccinated.

Should this concern us? No! 2/n Image
The first point can be easily dismissed. More than 9 out of 10 UK adults has been vaccinated. So of course more of the deaths are from vaccinated people!

So far so obvious, but to be fair this one wasn’t the focus of the claim. 3/n
Read 12 tweets
stuart mcdonald Profile picture
Apr 13, 2023
ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 31 Mar.

2,004 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to 5-year avg. That’s 21% more, a large excess but partly due to Easter distorting 5yr avg.

Year-to-date there have been 171,600 deaths recorded, 8% above the 5-year avg. Image
There were 634 deaths registered in England and Wales this week where COVID was mentioned on the death certificate. That’s higher than last week (624).

68% of deaths with COVID mentioned on the death certificate had it listed as underlying cause.
That’s another concerning excess.

On the face of it, it’s the largest excess this year, but as noted above it is inflated a bit by because some years in the 5yr avg had a Bank Hol this reported week.

Looking past this though it’s clear that deaths are high for the time of year.
Read 5 tweets

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