How the SCOTUS confirmation process plays out in Congress and in the campaign is TBD. Based on some recent polling, I have some thoughts on how we can make Republicans pay a political price for rigging the court. messagebox.substack.com/p/a-supreme-co…
1. Make it about the issues, not GOP hypocrisy or process fouls. The best message about the GOP rushing to confirmation to get a Justice that will help them overturn the ACA in the middle of a pandemic. messagebox.substack.com/p/a-supreme-co…
2. Keep the Fight Big. The person Trump nominates is beside the point. We know that person will overturn Roe V. Wade, the ACA, and a new Voting Rights bill. Keep the focus on the policy implications not the specifics of the nominee. messagebox.substack.com/p/a-supreme-co…
3. Remind people that Trump and the Republicans are rushing this nomination out of weakness, not strength. The believe Trump is losing and they know their agenda is too unpopular to enact through the democratic process. messagebox.substack.com/p/a-supreme-co…
4. Talk about court expansion (NOT PACKING!)in terms of restoring balance to the courts, not retribution for McConnell's misdeeds. If Trump succeeds, 5 of 9 justices will have been appointed by Presidents that ascended to office despite getting fewer votes messagebox.substack.com/p/a-supreme-co…
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1. Many Dems worry that Trump will "cancel" the elections to avoid getting his ass kicked in 2026, but he doesn't have the power to do that. Trump has a different plan to rig elections in 2026 and beyond.
And it's already underway.
2. It begins with the mid-decade redistricting in Texas and elsewhere. Republicans hope to net enough seats to keep the House, which gives them control of the process for seating the winner of the 2028 Presidential election.
3. Trump wants a new census that excludes the undocumented. A new census would allow Trump to manipulate the numbers and shift seats and electoral votes from blue states to red ones. Courts have resisted this in the past, but it's uncertain what they will do in the future.
1. The GOP just passed the most unpopular piece of legislation in history. It could not only cost them the majority, but it might be a generational political error that could blow up the Trump coalition and reshape politics for the foreseeable future.
2. Everyone thinks Trump has remade the GOP in his image, but slashing health care and food stamps to pay for tax cuts for the rich is something Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney would have done a decade ago.
But while the policy is the same political context has changed.
3. Back in Paul Ryan's day, cuts to Medicaid and SNAP primarily hurt Democratic voters. But the political coalitions have shifted dramatically since then. Now GOP voters - espcially the ones who swung to Trump in 24 - that will bear the brunt of this bill.
1. Trump is desperately trying to avoid blame for the downturn in the economy since he took office. Trying to blame Biden simply isn't going to work. Here's why:
2. On the campaign trail, Trump made outlandish and absurd promises about how he would end inflation on day one. This is why so many voters who were skeptical of Trump ultimately voted for him.
3. Voters have turned even more negative on the economy since Trump took office and specifically since Trump put his tariffs in place.
We now have four new polls that show the same thing -- Donald Trump's approval rating sinking into the mid-40s. This would be one of the shortest honeymoons for a new president in recent history. The reasons for the dip are pretty clear.
1. people do not like his agenda. In the @washingtonpost poll, 43% oppose what Trump has done in his first month. Those who strongly oppose outnumber those who strongly support by 37 percent to 27 percent
2. Elon Musk is dragging down Trump. Only 34% approve of the job he is doing and majorities are concerned about him accessing their private info and shutting down agencies
Before all of the votes are counted, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on what @KamalaHarris and her team have achieved. Trump should be running away with it, but he isn’t because Harris has run a near-flawless campaign under the utmost pressure. messageboxnews.com/p/how-kamala-h…
Incumbent parties around the world are getting crushed. 3/4s think the country is on the wrong track, 2/3s are pissed about the economy, and Biden's approval is in the low 40s. The fact that this is a toss-up is amazing. messageboxnews.com/p/how-kamala-h…
With no preparation and under the utmost pressure, Harris stepped into the breach and delivered in the biggest moments. She has made Dems as fired up as they have been since 2008. It's an incredible feat. messageboxnews.com/p/how-kamala-h…
1. The pundits universally declared JD Vance the "winner" of the debate. Sure, he was slicker and smoother than an initially nervous Tim Walz. They are wrong and that assessment shows a real disconnect with the voters who will decide the election. messageboxnews.com/p/no-jd-vance-…
2. Folks like me would have loved to see Walx rhetorically eviscerate Vance and hold him to account for all of his shameless lies and blatant hypocrisy, but that's what the voters wanted. They view debates as opportunities to learn not gladiator combat messageboxnews.com/p/no-jd-vance-…
3. The press and politicos care much more about precise speaking than the public, who cares more about what politicians say than how they say it. messageboxnews.com/p/no-jd-vance-…