Thread by @clearing_fog

-Thread-

There is a lot of confusion around this news that Trump is considering a plan to appoint “loyal” electors in battleground states, to try to ensure the Electoral College goes his way.

This is a serious sign of desperation, and unlikely to accomplish much.

/1

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1308768081838329856

First, for background, I wrote a thread back in January to explain the concept of so-called “faithless electors,” and how their actions comported with the framers’ actual intentions for the Electoral College.

While not strictly necessary to know, this is important background.
/2

https://twitter.com/clearing_fog/status/1220526975179034625

tl;dr:

The EC was originally *designed* to allow electors to go against the popular vote. This was envisioned as a protection against unqualified, populist demagogues - like Trump.

Clearly it didn’t work, even though one brave elector tried to do this in 2016.
/3

Over the years, many states have enacted rules and laws dictating that their electors have to vote according to the way that their state voted (some use percentages; different states handle it differently).

This goes against the spirit of the EC, but not the letter of the law
/4

At any rate, in July, the case in my original thread above was taken to the Supreme Court.

SCOTUS ultimately decided that it’s okay for states to force their electors to vote a certain way, because the Constitution doesn’t explicitly prohibit it.

/5

scotusblog.com/2020/07/opinio…

All this really means is that the states which already had laws governing electors could continue to use them - and that it is okay for states to create new laws to enforce elector voting behavior.

But not all states have those laws.

/6

There are currently 33 states that require electors to vote for the state’s pledged candidate.

This means that, in 33 states (the ones that are colored below), Trump couldn’t force a “loyal” elector to vote for him even if he wanted to.

/7
infogram.com/states-laws-bi…

You’ll notice that there aren’t many swing states where Trump would ever be able to pick “loyal” electors to begin with.

So which ones are even a concern? Pennsylvania?

What do you think would happen if Trump tried to override the voters’ will in PA?

Lead balloon.

/8

Now, I’m not saying that the GOP wouldn’t *try* to do this.

But this is not a strategy that would allow Trump to win a US election.

As far as I can tell, there are three risks here - none of them quite as bad as everyone is making it out to be.

/9