1. OMG. I've been restrained here. Remarkably, frankly, given...
I'm assuming Elliott was blocked for pointing out that @NateSilver538's model is expanding prob even as polls stay flat bc "days until," which he used to suppress his model's probability, are disappearing quickly.
I'm assuming Elliott was blocked for pointing out that @NateSilver538's model is expanding prob even as polls stay flat bc "days until," which he used to suppress his model's probability, are disappearing quickly.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1308837941071015936
2. As those days disappear his model will inevitably march towards a high probability. One that @gelliottmorris' more honest model is already. And you know what? I'm guessing since Morris released his Congress forecast today & its honest account produces the honest prob of 99%
3. (But note, not 99.5%-LOL, sorry couldn't resist) anyway, the 99% is the more honest account then what the 538 modeling is accomplishing. You know how you can tell? Look at which 1 is making their data and methodology available. And as you all know, I have no incentive here.
4. Anyway, the House is not competitive in any scenario for the GOP other than in a model that is modeling massive voter fraud, suppression, and mb vote switching. So unless the model includes these aspects, I'd be suspect of any model showing Rs gaining control in any interation
5. And a note on Elliott's senate model, at 63% for 51 seats this is great news for our model, which comes in at similar ranges. When you are putting forward and entirely new approach, and there are approaches that are known to work well, you want to be in-line w them. The
6. Website process is MASSIVE. But guys, when I can finally read you into what I'm really up to, I swear two things. 1st, you're going to agree it was worth the wait in terms of the forecast repost which will now be reposted w House races. 2nd- Rachel unplugged is gonna be lit!
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