1/ No, @skorusARK. Think this through. First of all, you really think that Tesla would waste its already-constrained battery production on a 90kWh pack for a "car for the masses" with a 405mi range?! NO! Tesla has no issue currently selling $38k Model 3s with 250mi range.
https://twitter.com/skorusARK/status/1308805650705780737
2/ Let's be more realistic. The "Model 2" will likely have a 45kWh pack, with a range of 202mi (4.5mi/kWh) to 243mi (5.4mi/kWh). ID.3 range.
3/ Also, why are you keeping gross margins fixed? If Tesla can even get down to $56/kWh, $56/kWh x 45kWh = $2,520 ÷ $25,000 = 10.1% of COGS, which imputes an increase of 9.1% that can be, ceteris paribus, added to the current 15% gross margin = 24.1% total gross margin.
4/ Let's say Tesla sells 500k $25k "Model 2s" in 2024: Under your assumptions, Tesla would make $2.5B in profit and would require 45GWh of batteries. Under "mine", it would make $3B in profit and would require only 22.5GWh of batteries.
5/ Unfortunately, though, none of this matters because these cost and range projections on which you're basing all of this are for TESLA'S cells, which the $25k car won't use. Model 2 will use LFP.
6/ Anyway, however you figure your cost curve projections, none of this will really matter too much for @ARKInvest. By 2024, will be Ark's largest holding, "Golden Goose" or not.
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