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Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) Profile picture
@BrendanNyhan
Sep 23, 2020 • 89 tweets • 29 min read • Read on X
This is the nature of tail risk. We should acknowledge uncertainty but focus first and foremost on the very real danger. Experts are gravely worried. We should act now not ask later why warnings weren't heeded (see: 9/11, Chernobyl, etc.). Image
This is not a drill.
A democratic emergency. Full stop.
A democratic emergency.
History will remember what you do now. This is it. This is the red line.
A time for choosing. Do you believe in democracy or do you not? Who will speak up? Who will put country over party?
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency.
One Republican stands up.
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency. My comments this AM on @Morning_Joe.
.@RepSteveStivers joins @MittRomney. Who else will do so?
A third: @Liz_Cheney.
The media must convey that we are facing a democratic emergency. The fact that Trump has said similar things before does not in any way reduce the gravity of the situation.
Encouraged by statements like this - now from @marcorubio. But we've seen this kind of talk before from Rs who ultimately bent the knee. Will they stand firm if Trump creates enough chaos to generate a pretext for overturning the vote/stopping the count?
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency that the media needs to cover as such.
No criticism of Trump; instead attacks Democrats, trying to leverage negative partisanship. Ominous.
Image
If the Dept. of Justice will take these kinds of irregular actions now to promote false claims of widespread voter fraud, what will they do in November? A democratic emergency. ImageImageImage
A democratic emergency. Image
A democratic emergency. nytimes.com/live/2020/09/2…
A democratic emergency: "his most substantial threat yet to the nation’s history of free and fair elections."
A democratic emergency. Image
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency. Image
A democratic emergency that must not be covered using idiotic both sides frameworks. Image
A democratic emergency. Image
A democratic emergency. Image
My latest comments on the current democratic emergency
A democratic emergency. Listen to one of the most eminent scholars in the field.
A democratic emergency. The former Chief Justice of the Florida Supreme Court. Image
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency.
The President continues his ongoing and unprecedented campaign against the legitimacy of an election he seems likely to lose. A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency.
The President spent a significant portion of a presidential debate attacking the legitimacy of the U.S. electoral system and suggesting that the election could be "fraudulent." A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency
What would you say if you saw it in another country? A democratic emergency.
Totally plausible. A democratic emergency.
NYT news analysis (not opinion/editorial): "the most direct threat to the electoral process now comes from the president of the United States himself." nytimes.com/2020/09/30/us/…

A democratic emergency.
"'It's the kind of language you might expect from a dictator': Trump's remarks on election integrity and poll-watching alarm experts" nytimes.com/live/2020/09/3…

A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency. nytimes.com/2020/09/30/mag… Image
A democratic emergency.
The U.S. faces "the gravest challenge in its history to the way it chooses a leader and peacefully transfers power" nytimes.com/2020/09/30/us/…

In other words, a democratic emergency.
American intelligence and homeland security officials are worried the President of the United States is signaling foreign powers to interfere in our elections on his behalf.
nytimes.com/2020/09/30/us/…

A democratic emergency. ImageImage
A democratic emergency. To Racicot's great credit that he is speaking out.
"Almost every single claim Trump made during the debate segment about the integrity of the election was inaccurate... His Tuesday performance was just the latest component of a systematic, months-long disinformation campaign"

A democratic emergency.
"something of a more perilous nature for a democracy"

"recently floated conspiracy theories that also sound like calls to arms."

A democratic emergency. nytimes.com/2020/09/30/us/… Image
A democratic emergency. apnews.com/article/virus-… Image
A democratic emergency. propublica.org/article/doj-fr… Image
A democratic emergency. Allows DOJ to be further weaponized in the ongoing attack on the legitimacy of the election. nytimes.com/2020/10/07/us/… Image
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency. Image
The President and Vice President have refused to commit to the peaceful transfer of power. A democratic emergency.
An ongoing, systematic attack on the legitimacy of our elections. Delivered at a de facto campaign rally held at the White House. A democratic emergency. Image
The President demanding that his Attorney General prosecute his political opponents before an election he is otherwise likely to lose. A democratic emergency. nytimes.com/2020/10/09/us/… Image
A democratic emergency.
The AP is covering a potential attack on the peaceful transfer of power as just another campaign tactic (@JonLemire @ZekeJMiller @colvinj). A democratic emergency. apnews.com/article/electi… Image
Officials in one of our largest cities are preparing for the very real possibility of serious election unrest to be incited by the President and his allies. What would you say if you saw it in another country?

A democratic emergency.
The President's lawyer may be "cooperating with Russian intelligence operatives on a hack-and-leak operation to influence the presidential campaign." A democratic emergency. (From @jonathanchait but not linking to avoid direct amplification of anything related to this story.) Image
The President is threatening to fire the FBI director for failing to bring charges against his opponent on the eve of an election. A democratic emergency.
The President and his allies are undermining public confidence in our election system. A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency. What if someone at DOJ acts on these demands between now and Election Day or afterward?
"A win, no matter the margin, will embolden Trump to ax anyone he sees as constraining him from enacting desired policies or *going after perceived enemies*" - including the FBI director. A democratic emergency. Image
The President is falsely suggesting the election will be stolen in PA by the governor. A democratic emergency.
The President is calling *before Election Day* to prevent vote counts from being completed. A democratic emergency.
The President is engaged in a systematic - and baseless - assault on the legitimacy of the upcoming election. A democratic emergency.
The President is calling for votes that are legally cast by Election Day to not be counted. A democratic emergency. Image
A democratic emergency
A democratic emergency
The President's adviser is suggesting that counting legal votes is a plot to steal the election and should be stopped. A democratic emergency.
The President is planning to prematurely declare victory before all of the legally cast votes have been counted. A democratic emergency.
In the culmination of a months-long campaign against the legitimacy of an election he is likely to lose, the President now openly opposes counting all the votes and is encouraging violence from his supporters. A democratic emergency. nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/… ImageImage
Unprecedented and authoritarian: The President is attacking the basis of our system of government by prematurely declaring himself the winner before the votes have been counted. A democratic emergency. washingtonpost.com/elections/2020… cnn.com/2020/11/04/med… ImageImageImageImage
A democratic emergency. The President opposes the *first* count of the votes. Not a recount, not a change in standards. Counting the votes. Image
A democratic emergency. washingtonpost.com/politics/trump… Image
The *counting* of the votes, which *always* continues after Election Day. A democratic emergency.
A democratic emergency. We must be clear about what is happening here even if it is so far largely unsuccessful.
A democratic emergency. The President is falsely challenging the results of an election he is very likely to lose and trying to overturn the outcome.
A democratic emergency. A scorched earth strategy that could do lasting damage to confidence in elections in our democracy. Image
A few GOP members of Congress already supporting Trump's baseless attack on our electoral system. A democratic emergency. Others must speak up.

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More from @BrendanNyhan

Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) Profile picture
Jul 27, 2023
New @nature: Like-minded sources on Facebook are prevalent but not polarizing
(open access!)

Our key findings:
-Median FB user gets 50.4% of content from like-minded sources
-But reducing exposure by ~1/3 for 3 months had no measurable effect on attitudes https://t.co/IpaHQ0bnGznature.com/articles/s4158…



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Increased polarization and hostility are often blamed on echo chambers on social media.

We therefore look at the sources people are exposed to on Facebook to see (a) how slanted they are toward people's political leanings & (b) what effect changing those sources would have.
We estimate user political leanings with a validated classifier and categorize other users, Pages, & groups as "like-minded" (sharing user's leanings), "cross-cutting" (on other side), or neither (in the middle). Exposure data are June-Sept. '20, experimental data Sept.-Dec. '20.
Read 14 tweets
Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) Profile picture
Apr 22, 2023
Inducing all of the 1M+ follower accounts to denounce your product is some god-level marketing genius Image
Being treated by huge accounts like it's a virus Image
They're going to teach this in business school someday Image
Read 9 tweets
Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) Profile picture
Dec 6, 2022
Here's a whole pseudo-panel on our YouTube paper (sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/20…) featuring synthetic @j_a_tucker, @AdamBerinsky, @emilythorson, @AliceMarwick, and @duncanjwatts. The real people are of course way better but it's a pretty good summary of key points!
Next I pressed ChatGPT to make synthetic @j_a_tucker,
@AdamBerinsky, @emilythorson, @AliceMarwick, &
@duncanjwatts more critical & to draw on specific research. Again not nearly as good as the real folks but how long until we're evaluating R2 on value above ChatGPT (VOCG)?
Here's a review written by synthetic me. I gave my paper an R&R, which I guess is a good sign?
Read 4 tweets
Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) Profile picture
Dec 1, 2022
How many technical class syllabi are now going to include recommendations to query ChatGPT with questions? Simple example - look how clear this is Image
Holy cow Image
Read 22 tweets
Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) Profile picture
Nov 30, 2022
Academics: Papers that say they are preregistered must (a) attach the prereg as filed and/or (b) provide a working link to the full prereg. Anything else should be bounced by the journal or rejected by reviewers. Otherwise prereg just becomes a totem people invoke w/no content.
I ran out of room but this too! Reviewers HAVE to look at the prereg. Writing down a few vague hypotheses and then saying the whole study is preregistered is not a preregistered study. Telltale signs: lack of description of deviations & what is exploratory
If you are an editor or on an editorial board, you need to include these checks in your post-submission workflow. Don't let papers get to the review stage that don't provide full preregistration information if they claim it!
Read 4 tweets
Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) Profile picture
Nov 9, 2022
What a s***show. Come on.
All a joke until something real happens
Read 16 tweets

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