Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
@Dartmouth poli sci professor, @UpshotNYT contributor, @BrightLineWatch co-organizer. Before: @fordschool @umich / @CJR / Spinsanity / All the President's Spin.
Eric Nelson, Ph.D. Profile picture Puneet Kollipara Profile picture 2 added to My Authors
16 Jan
Lots of evidence-free claims about the insurrection being an inside job w/Capitol Police or members of Congress. What happened should be investigated and prosecuted to the full extent of the law. But we should also beware of the appeal of conspiracy theories in moments like this.
The known facts are abhorrent. No need to speculate prematurely before what happened is better understood.
Lots of reasons people might leap to conclusions about a conspiracy beyond the evidence per this discussion with @RyanDEnos
Read 8 tweets
16 Jan
Great to require that experiments be preregistered but need a careful phase-in and should include preacceptance to avoid creating a massive file drawer problem cambridge.org/core/journals/… nytimes.com/2014/09/19/ups…

Also creates weird differences in standards between types of research
Thoughtful reflections on the merits and challenges of preregistration from @TJRyan02
Read 4 tweets
13 Jan
Horrifying that inciting an insurrectionist mob to storm the US Capitol only moved Trump approval down to the mid-30s. The political penalties for encouraging extremism and attacking democratic norms are dangerously weak.
Horrifying that inciting an insurrectionist mob to storm the US Capitol only moved nine Republicans to vote for impeachment. The political penalties for encouraging extremism and attacking democratic norms are dangerously weak.
10
Read 7 tweets
9 Jan
The professional association of political science literally did a "both sides" statement after a violent insurrection. Do better.
The statement does say this. But the part on what to do about the insurrection is pure both sides-ism.
*Axe Body Spray* managed to denounce the insurrectionist riot at the Capitol without engaging in "both sides" equivalence. Somehow the American Political Science Association couldn't. Sigh. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
8 Jan
Also the people with the time and money to go to DC on a weekday are going to be relatively advantaged
More examples here - a lawyer, a teacher, a chief executive (!), a sheriff, and a small business owner. As with Trump's supporters, higher income/status than many assume washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01…
Read 4 tweets
3 Jan
An authoritarian is trying to overturn a free and fair election. He presents an ongoing threat to democracy every day he is in the White House and should be removed from office.
Read 10 tweets
1 Jan
Precisely what I'm warned against in podcast with @MattGrossmann niskanencenter.org/how-much-did-t… - the way Trump is now warping the incentives of ambitious Republican politicians
"At least 140 House Republicans to vote against counting electoral votes" - we're at the edge of the precipice; a major party is on verge of refusing to accept the result of an election cnn.com/2020/12/31/pol…. This is how Trump is warping incentives.
Per @BenSasse: "in private, I haven’t heard a single Congressional Republican allege that the election results were fraudulent - not one. Instead, I hear them talk about their worries about how they will 'look' to President Trump’s most ardent supporters." facebook.com/SenatorSasse/p…
Read 11 tweets
28 Dec 20
Hilarious - this is going into presidency textbooks washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020…
Trump has to be the most feckless legislative president of modern times and it doesn't seem particularly close. (And yet he has still managed to push our democracy to its limits.)
Right from the Trump playbook () - we're currently on #3
1. Present distorted version of status quo
2. Create crisis over distorted version of status quo
3. Restore status quo (often at substantial cost)
4. Take credit for status quo
Read 7 tweets
21 Dec 20
Election-denying lunatics join forces Voltron-style
The confederacy of dunces that is urging the man with the nuclear codes to overturn the election. What could go wrong?
Read 6 tweets
21 Dec 20
Hilarious to hear him list all the absurd claims they are forced to disavow under legal threat. Never thought I'd see a single conspiracy theory that somehow involves Hugo Chavez and Diane Feinstein. What a time to be alive.
Read 7 tweets
20 Dec 20
Seems pretty important to understand this before you tweet about why the CDC is wrong to 3.6M followers. Image
The issue of how to prioritize vaccines is genuinely complicated and one where science doesn't provide definitive answers - lots of ethical and logistical concerns as well.
the problems with the above are captured perfectly here
Read 5 tweets
20 Dec 20
The President and his totally insane advisers are discussing seizing voting machines and declaring martial law cnn.com/2020/12/19/pol… nytimes.com/2020/12/19/us/…

Doesn't matter that it won't happen. These are grounds for removal from office. Full stop.
The President is having meetings in the White House about whether to mount a coup. We cannot be silent.
The Wall Street Journal editorial board mocked me for warning of the threat Donald Trump posed to American democracy back in 2017. People were still suggesting that the threat had been overblown just a few weeks ago. And here we are.
Read 15 tweets
11 Dec 20
64% is a staggering number. Consider: Who runs for office and who retires in the coming years? Who ascends into leadership or moves to higher office? Easy to imagine pro-democracy folks opting out and anti-democracy folks opting in to an extent that people are not grasping.
And how many of these are only mounting federalism objections? Not all 70 actually oppose contesting the election; some are just objecting to the means by which the suit attempts to do so
Only 25% of retirees are signing compared to 69% of those staying.

Put another way, 21% of the House Republicans who haven't signed on are retiring. Now compound that over a few cycles if this continues.
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec 20
Most Republican states are calling on a R-dominated Supreme Court to overturn the result of the election despite the outcome being obvious and the legal arguments being laughable. Imagine a Bush/Gore situation where legal issues are less clear and the margin is closer. What then?
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec 20
"the correlation of Twitter metrics—likes and retweets—and persuasion was -0.3, 'meaning that the better the ad did on Twitter, the less it persuaded battleground state voters.'"
super-interesting to contrast viral videos with what was found to be most persuasive super PAC ad
This. Also note that Lincoln Project folks note that some of their online stuff was directed at media conversation and Trump himself, not persuadable voters. (Cost-effectiveness question there seems substantial, though.)
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec 20
Important @jbview on how Rs are happy to roll Trump on the defense bill, Fed nominees, etc. but are terrified of him in other domains (e.g., Biden winning) - suggests it's less about being scared of him than of GOP voters on certain high-salience issues bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Also this from @anthlittle. Depends how you define power! Trump got Rs to refrain from criticizing him or even support him as he violated countless norms up to and including trying to overturn the election. But he didn't get his way on policy very often.
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec 20
The President is trying to overturn an election that he lost. We know what to call this when we see it in another country.

The fact that he won't succeed doesn't make his actions any less serious. Attempted arson is still a crime.
The President is literally attempting to overturn an election he lost. Wildly dangerous and unacceptable even if it will be unsuccessful. Image
Read 5 tweets