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Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) Profile picture
Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️)
@BrendanNyhan
@Dartmouth political scientist & @BrightLineWatch co-director. Before: @upshotNYT; @UMich; @CJR; Spinsanity https://t.co/uYqX3jPmks
7 subscribers
Jul 27, 2023 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
New @nature: Like-minded sources on Facebook are prevalent but not polarizing
(open access!)

Our key findings:
-Median FB user gets 50.4% of content from like-minded sources
-But reducing exposure by ~1/3 for 3 months had no measurable effect on attitudes https://t.co/IpaHQ0bnGznature.com/articles/s4158…



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Image Increased polarization and hostility are often blamed on echo chambers on social media.

We therefore look at the sources people are exposed to on Facebook to see (a) how slanted they are toward people's political leanings & (b) what effect changing those sources would have.
Apr 22, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Inducing all of the 1M+ follower accounts to denounce your product is some god-level marketing genius Image Being treated by huge accounts like it's a virus Image
Dec 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Here's a whole pseudo-panel on our YouTube paper (sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/20…) featuring synthetic @j_a_tucker, @AdamBerinsky, @emilythorson, @AliceMarwick, and @duncanjwatts. The real people are of course way better but it's a pretty good summary of key points! Next I pressed ChatGPT to make synthetic @j_a_tucker,
@AdamBerinsky, @emilythorson, @AliceMarwick, &
@duncanjwatts more critical & to draw on specific research. Again not nearly as good as the real folks but how long until we're evaluating R2 on value above ChatGPT (VOCG)?
Dec 1, 2022 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
How many technical class syllabi are now going to include recommendations to query ChatGPT with questions? Simple example - look how clear this is Image Holy cow Image
Nov 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Academics: Papers that say they are preregistered must (a) attach the prereg as filed and/or (b) provide a working link to the full prereg. Anything else should be bounced by the journal or rejected by reviewers. Otherwise prereg just becomes a totem people invoke w/no content. I ran out of room but this too! Reviewers HAVE to look at the prereg. Writing down a few vague hypotheses and then saying the whole study is preregistered is not a preregistered study. Telltale signs: lack of description of deviations & what is exploratory
Nov 9, 2022 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
What a s***show. Come on.
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
All the ingredients are there for the GOP elite to finally make the anti-Trump move they couldn't coordinate to pull off in 2015/2016. But this is a feckless crew and coordinating against an overwhelmingly popular leader in the party is difficult; we'll see.
Nov 9, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
My assessment of where I updated my priors on threats to democracy Corresponding points from @paulnovosad
Nov 9, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Important - we need every losing candidate to affirm the legitimacy of the result and to concede with grace
Nov 8, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Things NOT to do tonight - be the person who says any of these:
-[early, partial result] means [sweeping conclusion about the election]
-[complex election outcome w/many causes] means [I am right about a policy or strategic dispute]
-[shifts or delays in vote counts] mean [fraud] Also, if you don't talk about midterm election losses for the incumbent party as the baseline for assessing Democratic performance, you're going in the counterfactual reasoning penalty box Image
Nov 6, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Life comes at you fast
Oct 31, 2022 • 9 tweets • 8 min read
NEW: @BrightLineWatch on state of US democracy brightlinewatch.org/american-democ…

-R acceptance of Biden win/trust in natl. vote ↑ vs '21, but vote confidence still ↓ vs '20
-Pervasive candidate denialism
-Experts: Trump run profound democratic threat, prosecution major benefit

🧵 below From new @BrightLineWatch report brightlinewatch.org/american-democ…

For the first time since the election, we observe substantial movement among Rs, 33% of whom now regard Biden as the rightful 2020 winner, up significantly from 27% in November 2021, though the partisan gap remains vast.
Oct 31, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If every account followed by @verified subscribes b/c of this shakedown, that's $26M/year.

Musk owes $1B/year in interest.

Not sure this is the magical solution.

(And the risk of chasing verified users off the platform and confusing everyone seems.... not worth $26M/year.) Now $100M/year if everyone pays but um a ton won't and it'll be a confusing mess and cost the platform a lot of high-profile users theverge.com/2022/10/30/234…
Oct 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The dangerous discourse of illegitimacy (and an ugly smear). How long until he starts referring to the Biden administration as a "regime"? Not good Image
Oct 4, 2022 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
Incredible. Almost art. Did no one at PNAS take a class on surveys? What is happening?
Sep 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Would appreciate people of good faith - especially those who worry about "cancel culture" - speaking up against the increasing use of state power against speech. An ominous trend
Sep 26, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Verified this is genuine (email sent to employees below). Key excerpt:

"faculty or others in charge of classroom topics & discussion must themselves remain neutral on the topic & cannot conduct or engage in discussions in violation of these prohibitions w/o risking prosecution"
Sep 25, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Exactly - per @sinanaral, the goal was "[to] do an experiment on 20 million people and to then roll out a better algorithm for everyone’s jobs prospects as a result of the knowledge that you learn"
Sep 23, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
academic.oup.com/qje/advance-ar…
Sep 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Sep 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
After a failed coup attempt, the defeated former President is increasingly directing his appeals to members of a violent, conspiratorial, authoritarian cult.

What would you say if you saw it in another country? How about asking Rs what they think about Q and Trump's embrace of it? Accountability is important