"Get rid of the ballots & you'll have a very peaceful - There won't be a transfer, frankly. There'll be a continuation"
Trump refuses a peaceful transfer of power if he loses in November news.yahoo.com/trump-campaign…
At the moment of constitutional crisis on Jan 20th, 2021, will US military escort the former president from the White House or do nothing & watch Black Lives Matter plaza become Tahrir Square?
3/ US will need a pacted transition to incentivize Trump leaving, w minimum violence. Republican & Dem elites will have to remove his fear of prosecution for manifest crimes. People protesting on streets cannot credibly commit to amnesty. ht @TomPepinsky tompepinsky.com/2020/07/27/the…
4/ In case one thinks its unlikely, troops from 82nd Airborne amassed in DC during June's Floyd protests. But Military stood up to Trump & refused to fire on citizens. They'll have to be ready in January to remove him from office. defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/…
"The Financial Times has misled its readers by not clearly stating that its promotion of trade blocs and revision of other key principles means in reality the abandonment of neoliberal globalization as a project"
Martin Wolf: "It is conflicts over power that most threaten globalisation. By seeking to enhance their security, great powers make their rivals more insecure, creating a vicious downward spiral of distrust. We are already a long way down this spiral" ft.com/content/8954a5…
1/ I'm not sure that ppl outside of California have grasped the magnitude of this deadly and still-escalating wildfire catastrophe. Fires in WUIs, fanned by 80 mph+ winds, bone dry stubble, after 2 yrs of growth in wet winters. Tens of thousands of people are being evacuated.
2/"The Getty Villa Museum has caught fire as the Palisades Fire pushes forward in Southern California, according to reporting from the LA Times. The museum’s collection contains more than 125,000 artifacts, many of them Greek and Roman antiquities" latimes.com/california/sto…
3/ "A second fast-moving wildfire is burning out of control in the Los Angeles area hours after another blaze tore through the city’s Pacific Palisades neighborhood, destroying many homes and prompting evacuation orders for tens of thousands." sfchronicle.com/california-wil…
The market: Electricity hungry BigTech created a credits "system is akin to buying the right from a fitter colleague to say you have cycled to work, even though you arrived by a car that runs on petrol." @CamillaHodgson ft.com/content/2d6fc3…
“The market will solve climate”
The market: Oil Pipelines are ESG and low carbon! This giant tub of ice-cream won't make you fat because the tub is made of zero-calorie material & by athletes.
Netanyahu assassinates Haniyeh in Tehran & Hezbollah’s Shukr in Beirut. We are on cusp of regional war in Middle East. Forces are being deployed, Defences readied, Redlines of targets communicated.
2/ In Israel's corner are US, UK, Egypt, Saudis, Jordan &Abraham Accord (informal milvalliance) with oil Kingdoms - UAE, Bahrain.
They have communicated to Israel that they will defend Israel if it is attacked by Iran axis but will not participate in a war initiated by Israel
3/ "US is expecting the anticipated Iranian attack may be similar to the barrage of ballistic missiles & drones launched against Israel on April 13...But this attack could be larger...including the possibility of a coordinated attack with Iranian proxies from multiple directions"
The vibe shift, on the ground, in swing state Wisconsin
" Kamala Harris electrified the crowd in her first campaign rally as presumptive Democratic nominee. "I haven’t felt anything like this in many, many years,possibly since President Obama’s first run" therecombobulationarea.news/p/in-west-alli…
For 2yrs, gap between sentiment & economics widen. Did Kamala end vibecession? @kylascan
"There's layers to the cake:
How people expect things to be (expectations)
How things are supposed to be (theory)
How things are (reality)"
2/ Ecology: With super hot oceans, we are very worried about this Atlantic hurricane season. THIRTY storms are predicted plus minus 5, depending on el nino
3/London, Zurich, Bermuda are home of reinsurance.
Insurance model rely on risks being 1 Uncorrelated 2 Calculable 3 Paid for by mkt returns elsewhere
But #globalwarming upends Insurance
It correlates risks (global!); creates catastrophic fat-tails; and crimps returns everywhere.