Thread by @nicktolhurst

"The Northern Brexit vote".

1. It doesn't exist.
2. Its a myth invented by the media & politicians & due to the otherwise laudable achievement that Sunderland area is very good at counting votes quickly.

A thread.

2/

Every English region except London voted Leave - but the biggest Brexiters were Northerners - right?

Wrong.

The 2 regions with highest Leave vote:
East Midlands
West Midlands

Not only that but turnout was very high in both meaning that the Midlands absolute vote higher.

3/

"Yeah but Northern areas had the highest individual town votes right?"

Wrong.

The vast majority of high Leave voting areas were:
The Midlands
East England

Not a single North-West area had a top 20 Brexit.
Even London had one!

breakingnews.ie/world/20-areas…

4/

The "Red Brexit Wall" is a myth.
If any region could be said to have been crucial its The Midlands with its high Leave % PLUS high tunrout. The TOTAL North East Leave vote was ultimately barely more than a rounding error in the final results...

But there's another thing....

5/

We know that the Leave vote was heavily correlated with age.

Yet the North East region has an OLDER population than both the East & West Midlands.

Given this the real question is why "North East Brexit Vote" was so low compared with other older demographic English regions.

6/

We know that younger voters have trouble voting:
Under 40s have many claims on time with career/family compared with over over 55s.

But the timing of the refendum just as the academic year ended also meant students were often caught between areas if not abroad.

But also...

7/

We know that Students had lowest Leave vote - but logically universties are not uniformily dispersed.
They are city based not town/rural based.

So Brexit vote emptied areas of the most likely Remain voters and makes it difficult for them to vote or transfers them to cities.

8/

The North East in particular has an older demographic, fewer universities & lower turnout....

...and yet had a lower Brexit % vote than the huge combined Midlands region of over 7 million.

The North East had barely any impact on Brexit vote.
The Midlands did. Massively.

"Poor people voted Brexit".

This is kind of true...but only if other factors ignored.
Pensioners tend to earn less - but how do we explain this:

The poorest region by far - the older, poorer North East - voted less for Brexit than the significantly richer & younger Midlands?

So forget what you were told about the North East & Brexit - its BS.

The real questions are:

1. Why was the NE England Brexit vote so low?
2. Why was the Midlands Brexit vote so high?

You may not be surprised to know...

...I think I have the answer to this...

11/

Here's where it gets controversial...

Why should richer, younger Midlands vote more Brexit than poorer, older NE?

Its because in crucial ways the Midlands is different:

1. Higher inequality

Yes the NE is poorer - but its more equal - this affects how people view life.

12/

2. Higher Conservative vote

While both NE & Midlands traditionally vote Labour - the Midlands Tory vote is large - even in cities.
NE has never voted majority Tory.
Indeed often unreported:
The last time the NE Tory vote topped 40% was 1950s.
They still lost. Massively.

13/

3. There is some evidence that Midlands cities are "less integrated" both economically as well as ethnically than many northern ones.

One can see this in the way neighbouring constituencies return hugely differeing results. Also the legacy of past housing policies.

14/

So why did "Northern Brexit myth" catch on?
Simple.

It serves a narrative & hides uncomfortable questions.
This thread hasn't been to slander the Midlands - but rather to ask:

If the richer, younger Midlands voted Brexit so much what is the lesson of Brexit?

It's this...

15/

The real inequality-driving force behind Brexit was not the NE against London & Brussels..

..but that the most unequal, less integrated places within an hour of London among well-off people....

....drives angry politics where resentment & fear can be weaponised.

& so to..

..& so back to Sunderland.
It got the votes in 1st.
That was it.

But it hides the real causes of Brexit - which Brexit will only make worse - thats why Brexiters harp on about Sunderland.
Don't let them get away with it.

/Ends