3). There have been incumbents who have run during recessions, crises, and scandals, but Trump is the first incumbent who has never had an approval rating over 50% in a non-partisan poll for a single day of his presidency. What happens when all of these factors combine?
4). Trump can't contest the election if he loses red states. Let's say Trump loses Arizona, Iowa, and/or North Carolina along with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I am not considering FL, TX, and GA at the moment due to their history of systemic voter suppression.
5). Trump could sue to get the results overturned in one or two swing states, which is where the Supreme Court comes into play, but if he loses 5-7 swing states, the use the Supreme Court scenario to stay in power falls apart.
6). A lot of the doomsday election scenarios that are being published are bordering on science fiction, and contain as many assumptions as the #TrumpCoupPlot Since 2017, the political inertia has been moving toward Democrats.
7). The Supreme Court fight isn't going to help Republicans in the way that they think it will, because this isn't2018 or 2016., They are defending more seats in states where Democrats are stronger. The map has flipped, and the Supreme Court plot is energizing Democrats.
8). Trump is trying to cheat to win this election, but doomsday election scenarios become sort of a cottage industry in the weeks running up to a presidential election. There is a stronger than reported possibly that this election result ends up being obvious, and not in doubt.
9). Trump is trying to run the exact same campaign as 2016. Don't play into Trump's hands by falling for the assumption that this election will come down to one or two states. Treat like every battleground like a swing state, and Trump won't be able to contest the results.
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