THREAD:

1). The idea that Trump is being "underestimated" is being pushed by some in the corporate press, but a look at Trump's actual debate performances tell a much different story. 2). Going back and watching Trump's old debate performances is a useless adventure because the Trump of 2020 is not the same candidate that he was in 2016. Even his own staff admit that he has "lost a step." His energy has not been close to what it was then.

3). There have been incumbents who have run during recessions, crises, and scandals, but Trump is the first incumbent who has never had an approval rating over 50% in a non-partisan poll for a single day of his presidency. What happens when all of these factors combine? 4). Trump can't contest the election if he loses red states. Let's say Trump loses Arizona, Iowa, and/or North Carolina along with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I am not considering FL, TX, and GA at the moment due to their history of systemic voter suppression.

I don't see how the SCOTUS nominee fight is going to help Trump and McConnell. In fact, it is likely to backfire on them.

1). If Democrats needed one more reason to get people out to the polls to vote Trump and Mitch's Majority out, Republicans are giving it to them. 2). Overturning Roe v. Wade is extremely unpopular with voters. 69% of voters don't want the Supreme Court to overturn it. Forcing a nomination fight before an election is a good way for the GOP to get destroyed in the suburbs.