Thread by @Nate_Cohn

I think it's fairly clear that our polling suggests that Biden's rebounded among northern white rural voters, whether in ME/MN/IA, but not at all in the South (not surprisingly):
Rural/exurban white voters:
TX: Trump 80, Biden 16
GA: Trump 82, Biden 14
IA: Trump 45, Biden 42

With Biden lagging a bit in PA compared to other Obama-Trump states in the polls, I think it's reasonable to theorize that the Appalachian white vote has been a bit more like the Southern rural white vote in this respect, or maybe even trended further Trump

This pattern has shown up in a number of recent primaries, including the GOP '16 primary. Trump swept the Southern/Appalachian white vote, including PA, while he struggled a bit in the more Midwestern/northern states

Ohio is an interesting mix here: the northwestern part of the state is more reminiscent of the Upper Midwest; the eastern/southern part of the state is more Appalachian. It was pretty stark in the GOP '16 primary, in fact

Also interesting to compare this to self-reported 2016 vote among validated '16 voters:
Iowa: Trump 50, Clinton 36
Texas: Trump 83, Clinton 12
Georgia: Trump 85, Clinton 13

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1309117913614503937?s=20

Looking across all of our polling, you can see an interesting pattern of Dem suburban v. rural gains by region. I think it makes a lot of sense of the shifts we see

PA is the rare state with some northern metros but kinda southern rural. Bad combo for Biden. A state like AZ--very little rural vote, Sun Belt metro--could be great for Biden, as our poll found. No surprise to see Biden surges in rural north, like our MT poll

Here again, Ohio is an interesting case. It does have plenty of suburbs and you could call them northern, but they are *red* suburbs, unlike PHI, for ex., and that could be the real factor underpinning whether Biden has opportunities for a big breakthrough

I didn't label that clearly btw--but that chart is only among white voters, hence the Trump lead in the metro South