Not that were's approaching the final 30 days, polls are gonna start coming fast and furious. PLEASE remember, it is the *averages* that matter, so don't freak out when you see 1-2 polls that show an undesirable result.
For example...
Today, Siena released a poll that shows Biden +3 in IA, while YouGov released a WI poll with Biden +4.
Demographics alone tell us those two numbers cannot both be accurate, but if you feed them into the averages, you'll get a better picture.
Also, watch for first-time pollsters: yesterday's freak out was on the ABC/WaPo and Ipsos polls, but turns out neither had polled those states before, so we have no idea what the trendlines are, or what numbers their model tends to create in respect to the averages.
A few general tips:
First, consider methodology and past results. Most reliable are live phone interviews. After them are automated calls and online, which have seen some increases in its accuracy and reliability over the past 2-3 cycles, though still less than live interviews.
Figure out which polls generally favor one candidate or the other, either due to model or house effect. Most are a matter of 2-3% (YouGov for Trump, Fox News for Biden). Some are much larger (Trafalgar for Trump, Binder for Biden); with those, watch trendlines, disregard numbers.
538 has done a lot of this work for us, which is why I use only polls rated A+ through B/C in my updates, but even they can't keep up with every new development (such as Emerson using MTurk paneling, which tends to move their results 3-5% toward Trump).
Well that's it for now. Happy polling watching, y'all!
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🧵: #Bidenomics has worked better than anyone could've hoped, in every way possible. And by any fair measure, Biden’s economy is better than Trump's economy ever was, before or after CoVid.
(PSST... polls consistently show economy is undecided voters' #1 issue, so please SHARE!)
INFLATION: after worldwide inflation hit, the rate came down faster in the US than any G7 nation, and it's been back to the "target rate" since June 2023.
Not coincidentally, US corporations also posted *all-time* record profits during the period in which inflation was at its worst, by most experts’ accounts contributing 50-60% of it, as opposed to the 10-12% average we see otherwise.
On January 6th, 2021, Trump supporters—fueled by weeks of lies and violent rhetoric on a “stolen” election—attempted Insurrection to stop the certification of Biden’s win. A THREAD of all the things we have learned about the Seditious Conspiracy that led to that tragic event:
Before we start: the fact that ALL of Trumpworld's lawsuits lost in court would be enough for most to know there's no evidence the election was “stolen,” but if not, here’s Giuliani admitting (under oath) they didn’t even check if the claims were true.
2. This thread is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on current data. Earliest possible guess at election outcome 11/1, if then, and probably with caveats.