MINI-THREAD on polls:
Not that were's approaching the final 30 days, polls are gonna start coming fast and furious. PLEASE remember, it is the *averages* that matter, so don't freak out when you see 1-2 polls that show an undesirable result.
For example...
Not that were's approaching the final 30 days, polls are gonna start coming fast and furious. PLEASE remember, it is the *averages* that matter, so don't freak out when you see 1-2 polls that show an undesirable result.
For example...
Today, Siena released a poll that shows Biden +3 in IA, while YouGov released a WI poll with Biden +4.
Demographics alone tell us those two numbers cannot both be accurate, but if you feed them into the averages, you'll get a better picture.
Demographics alone tell us those two numbers cannot both be accurate, but if you feed them into the averages, you'll get a better picture.
Also, watch for first-time pollsters: yesterday's freak out was on the ABC/WaPo and Ipsos polls, but turns out neither had polled those states before, so we have no idea what the trendlines are, or what numbers their model tends to create in respect to the averages.
A few general tips:
First, consider methodology and past results. Most reliable are live phone interviews. After them are automated calls and online, which have seen some increases in its accuracy and reliability over the past 2-3 cycles, though still less than live interviews.
First, consider methodology and past results. Most reliable are live phone interviews. After them are automated calls and online, which have seen some increases in its accuracy and reliability over the past 2-3 cycles, though still less than live interviews.
Figure out which polls generally favor one candidate or the other, either due to model or house effect. Most are a matter of 2-3% (YouGov for Trump, Fox News for Biden). Some are much larger (Trafalgar for Trump, Binder for Biden); with those, watch trendlines, disregard numbers.
538 has done a lot of this work for us, which is why I use only polls rated A+ through B/C in my updates, but even they can't keep up with every new development (such as Emerson using MTurk paneling, which tends to move their results 3-5% toward Trump).
Well that's it for now. Happy polling watching, y'all!
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