Frederik Christopher Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
In 1999, at the height of the tech bubble, Jeff Bezos sat down for an interview with Playboy Magazine. A few highlights:

davidsheff.com/jeff-bezos
"I don’t believe any Internet company is appropriate for short-term investors."
"It's too easy to check stock prices and it's a complete waste of time."
I almost spit out my coffee when he talked about dating:
"I am not the kind of person women fall in love with. I sort of grow on them, like a fungus."
Looking for a partner who is resourceful:
"I told my friends that my future wife would have to be able to get me out of a Third World prison."
Young, nerdy Bezos was either Star Trek's Spock or the Computer

"I was hard to punish as a child because I was very happy to go to my room and read."
Starting Amazon:
"Believe it or not, it was illegal to do commerce over the Internet in the spring of 1994."

Timing:
"The first online bookstore started 17 years ago, on 300-baud modems. It was way too early."
"In 1994 we passed the elbow in the curve."
But where are the profits?

"It would be incredibly shortsighted to optimize for short-term profitability when we face innumerable opportunities, all of which require investment."

"You have to look at the ratio of mature businesses to new opportunities."
"Customers are loyal to us right up until the second that somebody else offers them better service. We live or die based on the customer experience."

"We have been customer obsessed, while our competitors have been Amazon.com obsessed.
Not a book store, a "customer store"
"Customers rank selection as our most valuable asset."

"A lot of what we will do is find and discover things for people."
"When I meet somebody new, my first question is, “How can we make the experience better for you?”

"I am convinced that we have received more honest feedback from customers in four years than probably any other company has received in 20 years."
The value of negative reviews:
"The amount you pay isn’t the biggest cost; it's the time you spend with the product afterward. You can spend $20 on a book, but that’s nothing compared with the eight hours of your life that you are going to give to this thing."
It's always Day One
"As companies get bigger, they have something to lose. They lose their boldness. They lose the spirit to innovate. They lose their pioneering qualities. I am bound and determined not to let that happen to Amazon.com."

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More from @NeckarValue

Oct 25, 2023
What are your favorite pieces with reflections on investment success and failure or lessons from decades in markets?

A few that come to mind:
Mark Sellers: So You Want To Be The Next Warren Buffett? How is Your Writing?

"If your competitors know your secret and yet still can't copy it, that's a structural advantage. That's a moat."

"Trait #1 is the ability to buy stocks while others are panicking and sell stocks while others are euphoric.

When 1999 comes around and the market is going up almost every day, you can't bring yourself to sell because if you do, you may fall behind your peers."
Read 11 tweets
Sep 29, 2023
Very interesting new paper by @mjmauboussin on the corporate lifecycle.

Rather than go by age or size, the framework ties life cycle to cash flows.

Stages: Introduction > Growth > Maturity > Shake-out >Decline.

Roughly: Investing -> returning capital -> liquidating assets.
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Unexpected:
"We expected low or negative spreads between ROIC and WACC for companies newly listed, rising spreads as they mature, a decline in senescence.

What we found was nearly the opposite. The spread at the date of the IPO was high and narrowed before stabilizing."
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Companies going public (selling equity to new investors) when return on capital looks most attractive (and is about to decline)?

Returns to shareholders on the other hand were most attractive for more mature companies.
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Read 6 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
Druckenmiller: "I am so tired of being a bear, and being labeled a bear."

But: Liquidity ⬇️
"Since it's taken so long, the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate. Inflation gets stickier the longer its in the system. That increases the probability of a hard landing." Image
"We always short the same way. ... I try and think of a situation 12 to 18 months from now and if I think the security prices are going to be less, I short.

Frankly, I'm not sure I've ever made money in shorts. I like it. It's fun, but you can get your head handed to you."
"When I was at Soros, I shorted $200 million worth of Internet stocks in March of 99. And in three weeks covered them at a $600 million loss. I lost $600 million on a $200 million investment in three weeks.

I was short 12 stocks. They all went bankrupt Every one of them."
Read 6 tweets
Jun 8, 2023
ROIC and margins for companies with different moats by @mjmauboussin ImageImage
"A company creates value when its ROIC is in excess of cost of capital. Stated differently, it makes a dollar worth of investment worth more than a dollar in market value.

The market broadly appreciates this, especially when growth is considered as an additional variable."
"Markets are akin to an ecosystem where investors fill various niches. Investors with a short-term horizon tend to focus on near-term metrics such as sales and earnings.

Investors with a long-term horizon focus on competitive advantage and the size of the market opportunity."
Read 5 tweets
May 24, 2023
Like other great investors, Sam Zell used content as a form of leverage. His "guide to the risky art of resurrecting dead properties" earned him his nickname, the Grave Dancer. Image
"Some might see buying and creating value from others’ mistakes as a form of exploitation, but I see it as giving neglected or devalued assets new life.

Often in my career I’ve been the only bidder for them—the last chance for a resurrection."
"I’m not claiming to be altruistic— just optimistic, and confident that I can turn those assets around.

That, in my definition, is an entrepreneur. Someone who doesn’t just see the problems but also sees the solutions—the opportunities."
Read 10 tweets
May 9, 2023
Druckenmiller keynote on debt, entitlements, and the dollar.

"The Fed can’t save us."
"The demographic storm is just getting under way." ImageImage
"In 20 or 30 years there will be fewer young workers, many more seniors that need support… and the starting point is the highest national debt in our history."
"Booming economies in 2018 and 2022 never had worse fiscal results. Unless something changes, this Bipartisan “Ratcheting effect” will continue." Image
Read 6 tweets

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