Climate change: F. Trump withdrew from the Paris climate accords and denies that this existential threat to the planet (and thus to all Americans) is even a problem. Trump’s refusal to even try to tackle climate change might be his greatest foreign policy failure. 2/
China: D+. Trump ... deserves credit for accurately diagnosing the challenge in the 2017 National Security Strategy. In 2020, however, his team then exaggerated this threat, claiming that the Chinese Communist Party seeks to export Marxism-Leninism & undermine global freedom. 3/
Trump’s prescriptions resulted in few tangible benefits. His trade war, resulting in a “phase one” deal, caused damage to American farmers, workers and manufacturers.... 4/
Trump’s silence on human rights abuses in Xinjiang & Hong Kong makes it difficult for his government to frame our fight with China in moral terms. Trump’s greatest success has been inadvertent - how ineptly Chinese President Xi Jinping has taken advantage of Trump’s mistakes 5/
Russia: F+. In his quest to befriend Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump has downplayed or dismissed countless belligerent actions...Trump’s embrace of Putin has not achieved a single beneficial outcome for the American people. 6/
Iran: F. Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, promising to secure a better deal and roll back Iranian influence in the region. Episodically, U.S. officials hinted at a larger objective — regime change. None of these goals have been achieved. 7/
North Korea: D. Trump experimented with a novel strategy: direct diplomacy with Kim Jong Un. Regarding the North Korea dictator, Trump said, “we fell in love.” But this bromance has not produced any reductions in North Korea’s threatening deployment of nuclear-armed missiles. 8/
Syria/the Islamic State: C-. Trump continued the U.S.-led military operation against the Islamic State launched by Obama in 2014. Trump flirted with using force to stop Assad’s atrocities, but pumped the brakes after a day of missile strikes & withdrew U.S. troops from Syria...9/
Diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel: B. Trump deserves credit for helping to establish diplomatic relations between these Arab monarchies and Israel. But it’s not “Middle East peace.” The ... benefits to the United States are minimal. 10/
Israeli-Palestinian peace: F. Trump’s grade here is shared by many presidents. Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, did float a novel approach. But presidents get judged by results, not originality. 11/
NATO: D-. Trump has expressed more disdain for the transatlantic alliance than any other American president since its creation in 1949. Tensions between the United States and several NATO members remain high. 12/
Africa: F. Trump’s only major policy initiative was to call them “shithole” countries. Enough said. 13/
Latin America: F. Mexico did not pay for the border wall. The attempt to overthrow the Venezuelan dictatorship has failed. New restrictions on travel, and relations more generally, with Cuba have produced no tangible security or economic benefits for the American people. 14/
The pandemic: F+. Trump has grossly mishandled the domestic response to the novel coronavirus, resulting already in more than 200,000 deaths, and did next to nothing to organize a global effort. The United States has provided some humanitarian assistance to other countries. 15/
The global economy:C-. The Federal Reserve has played a positive role in helping both the U.S. & global economy recover. The new trade agreement with Canada & Mexico is an incremental improvement over NAFTA (much of its language was lifted from the TPP drafted by Obama's team)16/
Democracy promotion: F. Trump does not even define advancing democracy abroad as a U.S. objective. He often brags about his friendly relations with dictators. 17/
Final grade: a gentleman’s D–. 18/ END THREAD.
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"When you add it all up – Trump’s concessions to Putin, insults to Zelenskyy, extortion of Ukraine, bad negotiation tactics and refusal to enforce a peace deal – there’s no evidence that Trump is serious about mediating a peace, and there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that all he cares about is courting Putin." 1/ THREAD
"I hope I’m wrong, because trying to appease Putin and abandon our democratic partners in Ukraine will have terrible implications for American security interests not just in Europe, but also worldwide. If Putin gets away with it, why wouldn’t China’s Xi Jinping invade and take over Taiwan? I hope Trump and his team will eventually realize how weak they will look if they capitulate to Putin and throw a democratic partner under the bus." 2/
"But, if I am right, then the rest of America who cares about freedom, who wants an enduring peace in Ukraine, who does not wish to ally with the autocrats of the world must stop Trump’s reckless foreign policy." 3/
I hope @SecRubio and @MikeWaltz47 have studied Mearsheimer. This paragraph in the thread below is particularly relevant for today. It's Realism 101. 1/ THREAD
“Appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and therefore it is a fanciful and dangerous strategy. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous foe into a kinder gentler opponent much less a peace loving state. Indeed, appeasement is likely to whet not shrink and aggressors appetite for conquest.” 2/
“Because great powers are programmed for offense, and appease state is likely to interpret any power concession by another state as a sign of weakness -- as evidence that the appeaser is unwilling to defend the balance of power the appeased state is then likely to continue pushing for more concessions.” 3/
Zelensky has thanked Trump, Congress, and the American people many times.
But let's be clear: when Trump and Vance said that THEY are trying to help Ukraine right now, and need to be thanked for the work personally, there are reasons to wonder. 1/ THREAD
1. Team Trump has told Ukraine that they have to give up territory to Russia. Zelenskyy should thank them for that? 2/
2. Trump has told Ukraine that they cannot join NATO. Zelenskyy should thank them for that? 3/
Lots of folks, including in the Trump administration, invoking "realism" as the reason why Putin needs to be appeased. I hope they have read this scholar, one of the most important realist scholars of our era. 1/THREAD
"Appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and, therefore, is a fanciful and dangerous strategy. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous force into a kinder, gentler opponent, much less a peace-loving state." 2/
"Indeed, appeasement is likely to whet, not shrink, an aggressor’s appetite for conquest. … Because great powers are programmed for offense, an appeased state is likely to interpret a power concession by another state as a sign of weakness…" 3/
So, let's summarize the negotiations for peace in Ukraine so far -- who got what in the last week. THREAD 1/
Concessions given or floated to Putin: (1) Ukrainian territory, (2) no Ukraine membership in NATO, (3) US withdrawing forces from Europe, (4) elections in Ukraine BEFORE real negotiations, (5) lifting of sanctions, (6) normalizing US-Russian relations, ... 2/
(7) lecture to Europeans about their bad democracies from VP Vance without a word of criticism about Russian dictatorship, (8) blaming Ukraine for starting the war, (9) falsely claiming that Zelensky has a 4% approval rating. 3/
The new Trump team has a very confused posture when it comes to sovereignty. On the one hand, they preach sovereignty, America First, no international constraints, for the US etc. 1/ THREAD
One the other hand, they tell Europeans how they need to change their policies on censorship and immigration. 2/
And they threaten to annex Greenland, Panama Canal, and Gaza! 3/