For the first 3 or so years of Trump's term there was certain mode of analysis fairly common among self-styled savvy centrists, #Resistance averse leftists, and tons of conservatives that basically held that everyone freaking out about Trump was being overwrought and hysterical.
The argument went, look, yes, he's a jerk and says crazy stuff, but the country is basically not that changed: unemployment is low, daily life continues as normal, there aren't tanks in the streets. You libs have lost your minds, obsessing over Russia and each new scandal, etc
Now, the counter argument was: look at the incompetence and cruelty on display in the aftermath of hurricane Maria, and the mass child abuse of child separation, and the vicious racism. Look at how far he is willing to go for power, whether in 2016, or in the Ukraine affair.
The argument always was: this man is so wildly unfit and so evil in disposition, that putting him in the most powerful position on earth *cannot help* but cause horrible ruin and danger for Americans and America.
Now look where we are: there are 205,000 dead Americans, and a thousand more every day. 7 million have been sickened, tens of million of work. His own task force staffer has come forward to say he does not care about those deaths and thinks his own supporters are "disgusting."
The president is directly threatening violence to stay in power and working every day to undermine both the legitimacy of the vote and the administration of free and fair elections. With either explicit or tacit collaboration from the entire institutional Republican party.
AND YET!!! You stil see this savvy, arm's length mode of analysis across the spectrum.
"Oh calm down libs, is it really so bad?"
MORE AMERICANS HAVE DIED IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS THAN DURING ANY SIX MONTH PERIOD IN A HUNDRED YEARS.
YES IT'S THAT BAD. WAKE THE HELL UP.
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It's now been 3 months since The Free Press published a first-person whistleblower account of systematic mistreatment in a MO gender clinic. They also published a reported story in which one (1) mother of a patient went on the record to object to her child's treatment.
Meanwhile, multiple other outlets have conducted dozens and dozens of interviews with parents, employees, and patients and found no corroboration for the very disconcerting and specific allegations in the first report.
Many people approvingly cited the first report and I'm kinda wondering at what point we can draw some conclusions about this entire episode. I guess it's possible that there's been a huge cover-up of flagrant and systemic deception and mistreatment at the clinic but...
Last night I talked about the East Palestine, OH train derailment and what it shows about the fundamental contradiction at the heart of modern conservatism.
Basically, the MAGA-dominated right these days is more and more dependent on a specific demographic: white working class voters outside major metro areas. Voters like those in East Palestine. And those voters have very real issues and struggle they are facing.
In the case of East Palestine, it's a wildly profitable railroad company responsible for a massive chemical explosion in their town. But the real question is: what do you want to do about it? And here modern MAGA-ism has very very little to say.
CARES + ARP was the single biggest infusion of cash into working and poor people's household balance sheets in...history basically. That money has now been spent down and this is the result.
But there's also a catch 22 to it all. Which is that people - understandably! - hate inflation and any continuation of fiscal support at that scale in these conditions would have been obviously inflationary.
That said I think there's often a lag between fundamentals and sentiment (and polarization is doing a TON of work as well). If we avoid recession, inflation comes down and wages remain strong, you would expect these numbers to improve.
Stipulating I'm not saying anything new, nor have any special expertise, there's a very weird dynamic with the Fed right now. It's clear they're not just looking at the price level, as is their mandate, but rather Wall St / and labor markets.
If you're just looking at the price level, things are very encouraging! Instead they're viewing the stock market and unemployment rates as proxies, and, particularly with regards to the former, have locked themselves into a weird battle of wills with investors.
So you get this weird thing where cool CPI prints --> buoyed markets --> Fed feeling the need to crack down and speak and act even more hawkishly. It's a weird game theory kind of dynamic. Extra-ironically markets seem to have priced this in a bit today so no big rally.
Remember that Tucker kicked off this whole Kanye publicity tour, fawning over him and telling his audience that Kanye was being falsely slandered as nuts.
While we all wait for returns, some thoughts about my expectations for today and the implications, at the broadest level, for American democracy.
First I think the Republican party poses a serious threat to American democracy and has turned away from democratic norms and towards authoritarian delusions and aspirations. That said...
I don't think a GOP victory this week signals the End of Democracy. There's no final, definitive moment. There will remain many means of democratic resistance to authoritarian aspirations that the broad pro-democratic majority will have to use:courts, protest, elections, etc