Atomsk's Sanakan Profile picture
Sep 25, 2020 15 tweets 8 min read Read on X
1/M

For months, COVID-19 contrarians spread misinformation about the immune system and COVID-19.
So I'll combine some rebuttal points I've made elsewhere, with a focus on T cells.





Image
2/M

An important concept here is 'herd immunity'.

In simplified terms:

The 'herd immunity threshold' is the number of people who need to be immune to infection, in order for 'infections per unit time' to stop increasing, at baseline.

medium.com/@silentn2040/t… Image
3/M

So for the graph below:
y-axis = # of new infections per day
x-axis = time

This is under 'baseline' conditions; i.e. people don't change their behavior in response to infection, + no further public health interventions (ex: lockdown).

At x = 10, the threshold was reached. Image
4/M

So why would herd immunity matter to you?

Well, once the herd immunity threshold (HIT) is reached, you and everyone else can go back to *living as you did before the viral pandemic, without worrying about infections per day increasing.*

medium.com/@silentn2040/t… Image
5/M

So herd immunity sounds nice.

Unfortunately, many politically-motivated non-experts misrepresented it, since they view it as a way to dodge policies they dislike, such as lockdowns.

Image
6/M

Many non-expert contrarians assume that if infections per day (or hospitilzations per day, or COVID-19 deaths per day, or...) decrease, then that automatically means HIT was reached.

The contrarians typically apply this to Sweden or New York City.

judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why… Image
7/M

This fails b/c HIT is about baseline conditions, without public health interventions or behavior changes (in technical terms: it's about R0).

In other words: factors other than herd immunity can decrease infections per day.



ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… Image
8/M

Another contrarian myth is that immune cells known as T cells greatly limit the number of infections, allowing us to reach herd immunity with less people infected.

Anyone who grasps basic immunology can debunk that, as other immunologists have:

Image
9/M

An analogy on this might help those unfamiliar with immunology:

A key entering a lock is somewhat analogous to a receptor binding to the receptor's target.

T cells have their T cell receptor (TCR), and immune cells known as B cells have a BCR.

immunology.org/public-informa… Image
10/M

B cells also make antibodies; these small proteins float freely and bind to viruses (like a key to a lock). That can prevent the virus from infecting your cells.

The BCR is basically an antibody the B cell keeps with it to bind stuff like viruses.

memorangapp.com/flashcards/110… Image
11/M

The BCR can recognize freely floating virus.

In contrast, the TCR *cannot* recognize freely-floating virus. Instead, it needs your cells to take up the virus, and then present parts of the virus on the cell's surface on a molecule known as MHC.

faculty.ccbcmd.edu/courses/bio141… Image
12/M

To go back to our analogy:

If the virus is a key, then the BCR is a lock that fits that key, with no additional help needed.

And the TCR is a lock that only fits the key if the key has an adaptor (or keychain) attached.
MHC is the keychain.
13/M

T cells known as CD8+ T cells kill virus-infected cells that show virus proteins on MHC.

So these T cells don't greatly limit infection: the TCR's function here *depends* on cells getting infected. That's immunology 101.

westburg.eu/immunotherapy-… Image
14/M

CD4+ T cells, in contrast, don't kill certain types of cells that present virus to them.

But these CD4+ T cells limit infection by encouraging B cells to make antibodies. That flies in the face of what contrarians (who don't grasp immunology) say: Image
15/M

So if someone makes the following claims to u, they're misleading u on immunology:

- 'T cells will help us get to herd immunity early, way beyond what we see with antibodies!'

- 'Sweden (New York City, or some other place not at baseline) achieved herd immunity!'

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More from @AtomsksSanakan

Sep 14
@curryja If it's anything like Steven Koonin's 2014 op-ed in WSJ, then it's filled with ideologically-motivated misinformation and denialism.

archive.is/FTvi1

realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
realclimate.org/index.php/arch…

web.archive.org/web/2014121322…
[archive.is/v03kY] Image
@curryja About 30% more warming occurred during the first quarter of the 21st century than during the last quarter of the 20th century.

Models did fine.

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
realclimate.org/index.php/clim…
x.com/hausfath/statu…

web.archive.org/web/2014121322… Image
Read 8 tweets
May 19
@grok @19joho @WSJopinion @mattwridley x.com/curryja/status…
x.com/curryja/status…

Ryan Maue:
"Use ERA5 or JRA-55"
archive.is/tAbpF#selectio…

archive.is/zsZIh#selectio…

"[...] according to ERA5 [...].
The increase for the last thirty years, from 1995 to 2024, is 0.26 ± 0.05°C per decade."
climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indica… Image
@grok @19joho @WSJopinion @mattwridley @grok Ridley predicted less than 0.5°C of warming.

"Matt Ridley's 2014 prediction that global warming from 1995 to 2025 would be about 0.5°C"
x.com/grok/status/19…

wsj.com/articles/matt-…
[archive.is/32FiP#selectio…] Image
@grok @19joho @WSJopinion @mattwridley Re: "The increase for the last thirty years, from 1995 to 2024, is 0.26 ± 0.05°C per decade"
climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indica…

Matches the ~0.3°C/decade projection Ridley attributed to climate models

"Whatever Happened to Global Warming?"
mattridley.co.uk/blog/whatever-…
[wsj.com/articles/matt-…] Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 26
1/J

Back in 2019 Javier Vinós (@JVinos_Climate) made some predictions, and I made some in response.

This thread will assess the accuracy of those predictions.

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

There are also ongoing predictions elsewhere

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
2/J

In 2019 Vinós said:
"All the warming since 2013 and more will be lost."
judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/cli…

My response:
judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/cli…

He also predicted:
"no net warming over the first quarter of the 21st century"
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…

My response:
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea… Image
3/J

Data through 2024 supports those predictions + falsifies Vinós claims.

(Data for prediction 3 has not be updated:
archive.is/TjamB)

On predictions 1, 2 , 5, and 6:

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

library.wmo.int/idurl/4/69455
[web.archive.org/web/2025031905…]
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor… Image
Image
Image
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Read 25 tweets
Dec 9, 2024
@luckytran Bhattacharya' NIH nomination for 2025 is reminiscent of Scott Pruitt's EPA nomination for 2017:

Position a contrarian ideologue whose views contradict published evidence + expert assessments.

x.com/_johnbye/statu…
x.com/pjavidan/statu…

cnbc.com/2017/03/09/sco… Image
@luckytran In which Bhattacharya does the intellectual equivalent of claiming vaccine denialists are being unfairly persecuted because Andrew Wakefield's blog told him so

🤢

x.com/AlastairMcA30/…

x.com/AliNeitzelMD/s…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan… Image
@luckytran x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

Bhattacharya, November 2020:

"What they're doing is focused protection, and you can see the result. The infection rates are going up in Sweden, but the death rates are not."
edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/vi…

ourworldindata.org/explorers/covi… Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 18, 2024
@luckytran No, 'focused protection' did not lead to herd immunity within 6 months in Florida.

"Florida, which adopted a focused-protection approach"
spiked-online.com/2021/08/02/the…

x.com/GidMK/status/1…

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

gbdeclaration.org/frequently-ask… Image
@luckytran When your main non-lockdown example... has a lockdown.

"announced a ban on public events of more than eight people"
web.archive.org/web/2020120111…

"upper secondary schools are again closing"
thelocal.se/20201203/swede…

x.com/DrKatrin_Rabie…

Bhattacharya:
gbdeclaration.org/frequently-ask… Image
Read 5 tweets

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