Since this is making the rounds again, just a reminder that the conspiracy theory that an unfunded grant application represents a blueprint for SARS-CoV-2 was defused by the writing of DEFUSE itself.
Why? Let's start with the sub-heading itself 👇.
S2' != S1-S2.
Short 🧵.
1️⃣ The section talks about "proteolytic cleavage" in the S2' region, not the S1/S2 region where SARS-CoV-2 has a unique insert. This, alone, kills the whole assertion of DEFUSE being a blueprint - details matter.
2️⃣ The section describes work to be done in pseudotyped viruses, not isolates. SARS-CoV-2 is very much not a pseudotypes virus.
3️⃣ The proposed work was to be done in the US, not China.
4️⃣ The polybasic cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 is not a canonical site and sub-optimal. The 'insertion' is out of frame. Clear marks of "just good enough" evolution, not precision molecular biology.
5️⃣ The grant was unfunded. This is not work you do on a whim.
6️⃣ We have no evidence _any_ of the work was ever done. Whenever, and wherever, we look, we come up empty-handed. People accused of having performed the work have denied it.
Clearly, it wasn't done. ODNI agrees.
7️⃣ Final point - the S1/S2 region is one of the most evolvable sites in CoVs, so observing an indel here is no surprise. SARS-CoV-2 picks up indels all the time - here's one example @alchemytoday, including "CGGCGG" coding for two Arginines.
@TheAtlantic For example, @BenMazer states that I "admitted" that we changed our conclusions and this was because we needed to “make some of the language punchier.”
This is a deep misrepresentation of what the peer-review process is and what I actually said.
Compare:
@TheAtlantic @BenMazer As is clear from the interview - and as I, and all my co-authors on all our "Origin" papers have explained numerous times - science drove our changing views on COVID-19 origins.
This is a perfect example of going from an early hypothesis to a later supported scientific theory.
Very interesting data from @yunlong_cao’s group, supporting a hypothesis we have been discussing internally for the last few weeks - that BA.2.86 may have a significant antigenic advantage, but intrinsically is less transmissible.
In such a scenario? The idea is that BA.2.86 has essentially found an antigenic (immunological) niche, where it faces little competition because it’s so distinct from previously dominant lineages.
However, likely having evolved in a single host for a long time, it could have lost the inherent infection/transmission fitness of previous variants (I.e., it has a lower R0).
@yunlong_cao’s data support both - high ‘escape’ potential, low infectivity potential.
From UFOs over sick lab workers starting pandemics, to quote mining private conversations among scientists. None of this is surprising - the surprising part is that 'journalists' and others keep falling for the same bullshit.
So a little context to Slack message 👇.
Short 🧵
First up, the message shows an *exact* example of what conspiracy theorists accuse us of not being willing to do - questioning our own research.
Second, context is extremely important here.
So what happened in mid-April, 2020?
There was a *ton* of talk about "Secret Cables" (thanks to, what later turned out to be, ignorant reporting from Josh Rogin @washingtonpost) that alleged to have evidence from the intelligence community showing the virus came from a lab.
1⃣ "potentially engineered"
2⃣ "inconsistent with expectations"
3⃣ "we have to look at this much more closely and there are still further analyses to be done, so those opinions could still change"
☎️ Feb 1 - Conference call.
Discussion among several leading experts based on the early hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 could have been engineered or otherwise lab-associated.
I have said it before and I'll say it again. Fauci played no role in drafting the Proximal Origin paper, nor did he "edit" it or "approve" it.
He suggested (i.e., "prompted") that we consider writing a paper, whatever we found. There was _no_ preference for one hypothesis.
Our initial hypothesis was that of a lab leak. Scientific inquiry requires that you try to falsify (i.e., "disprove") your hypothesis - which, as we state in the paper, we could not.
That said, it did not stand up to scrutiny, with natural origin being much more plausible.