2. There is a lot of wailing from Gazprom lobbyists about the prospect of huge liabilities for Germany if the project is cancelled. However, it almost inconceivable that the Western energy companies financing NS2 did not receive direct or indirect forms of indemnification
3. If they did not do so it was wholly irresponsible for them to no to do so given the controversy and scale of opposition to NS2 across the EU, from 8 EU heads of gov opposing it to resolutions for cancellation in the European Parliament supported by large majorities.
4. Nor is it easy to see how NS2 can sue the EU if sanctions are imposed. NS2 would have to challenge the imposition of sanctions when the EU has a legitimate objective to punish Russia for the Navalny poisoning and its support for Lukakshenko in suppressing a democratic election
5. NS2 is a legitimate target as it is 100% owned by Gazprom a Russian state-controlled company and NS2 itself is a geopolitical play of the Russian state to undermine Ukrainian independence (which the EU is pledged to support) and the independence & integrity of several EU MS
6. Nor is Germany likely to suffer from an investment drought by supporting sanctions on NS2, there are few investors who intend to invade European countries, poison the leader of the opposition and seek to suppress a democratic election in a neighbouring country.
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1. The EU is big enough and powerful enough to deal with Russian energy threats. My latest FT letter, page 1.
2..and page 2
3. As more and more EU Member States seek Moscow cutting gas supply exports there is a not unnatural tendency to panic. There is in fact no need to panic.
1. The principal cause of the super high energy prices the EU is now facing are the decisions of Gazprom from spring of 2021. See my latest @ACGlobalEnergy article here atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energyso…
2. On the instructions of the Russian state Gazprom abandoned a 60-year old supply strategy in order to soften up the EU before the launch of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Kremlin wanted the EU feeling nervous & dependent before it attacked Ukraine
3. To that end Gazprom accelerated what would have been an expensive winter and turned it into a super priced winter. Usually European natural gas prices ranged from a low $150 per thousand cubic metres to an expensive winter of around $500.
1. My paper on the end of Nord Stream 2: An obituary for Putin's geostrategic pipeline @HURI_Harvardhuri.harvard.edu/news/new-end-n… . With some I hope relevant observations even amidst the clash of arms..a thread..
2. The pipeline now looks dead. The German government has suspended the regulatory process which would permit NS2 to operate. The US government has imposed full sanctions on NS2AG and its corporate officers.
3. However, the pipeline remains in the Baltic Sea..able and ready to pump Russian gas into Europe. Could the dead pipeline be a zombie pipeline ready to come back to life post war?
1.The Russian state from President Putin downwards is taking a serious legal risk in undertaking this invasion of Ukraine. The territory of Ukraine is subject to the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC). This is not Afghanistan, and its not Syria.
2.The ICC did not exist at the time of invasion of Afghanistan. Syria never was a State Party to the ICC’s Rome Statute. And the UN Security Council could never make a referral in respect of the crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in Syria because of the Russian veto
3.Ukraine is different. On 8th September 2015 the Ukrainian accepted ICC jurisdiction. This gave the ICC jurisdiction from the 20th February 2014 onwards in relation to crimes of genocide; crimes against humanity and war crimes committed on Ukrainian territory.
1 (a) My view on the US/German deal on Nord Stream 2 is that the deal is not sustainable. It does not take account of the current deployment of Russian gas exports as an energy weapon and the conflict between the ‘weaponry’ issue and the rule of law, particularly EU energy law.
2. It is noticeable that the deal statement does address the issue of both the use of gas as an energy weapon and the role of EU energy law. The deal statement can be viewed here state.gov/joint-statemen…
1.This is third thread in respect of my @HjsOrg paper on Nord Stream 2: Myths, Illusions and Realities (the two earlier thread links can be found at the end of this thread)henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/upl…
2. This final thread focuses on the realties of NS2. There are three realities, German, European and British.
3. Starting with the German realities. Aside from the gas supply & security issue (there is actually no new German gas from NS2 and it reduces Germany’s route diversity from three to two pipeline routes-for more on this see threads 1 and 2) there is the reputational issue