If you are Donald Trump, and your image is based on the claim that you are a winner, what do you do when every recent national poll has you losing?
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How do you stop people from talking about your failed pandemic policies, tapes showing that you lied to the American people, an economy in trouble, and polls showing the Republicans are likely to lose their Senate majority?
You create a fiction: You tell the world that you are not losing, the other side is cheating, and you will not allow it.
When Trump says something like, “we can throw away the ballots and avoid having to transfer power,” he triggers outrage.
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He hijacks the national conversation.
Everyone must now discuss whether Trump can get rid of ballots (he can't) and whether the state governments and the courts will work in tandem to overturn an election and install Trump as a dictator (highly unlikely).
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People become convinced that Trump absolutely can pull it off.
Thus Trump creates a fantasy world in which he will retain power, and his critics inadvertently lend credence to the fantasy by acting as if it is true.
When I say, "It's possible but highly unlikely," people come along and say, "You're such an optimist."
I'm an optimist for not thinking an unlikely event is a foregone conclusion.
The other error goes like this . . .
Argument: Trump defies subpoenas. He ignores the law. Therefore he can steal the election.
This is like saying, "I got away with speeding so I can certainly rob 10 banks."
Stealing a US election is not comparable to: "You can't have my taxes and you can't make me talk."
A problem is headlines. Authors don't write the headlines for their articles. They don't see them ahead of time.
In my piece I wrote this: "He probably won’t succeed in preventing the peaceful transfer of power to Joe Biden if he loses."
I never said "can't."
Trump engages in wishful thinking, which everyone takes seriously, which then lends credence to the fantasy and helps Trump bring about the outcome he wants.
Undermining confidence in democratic institutions (i.e. persuading people the election is rigged) undermines democracy.
Precisely. We know Peale shaped his thinking.
This is how Trump governs.
Examples:
🔹The virus will magically disappear.
🔹If you stop testing, you won't have bad test results.
🔹I'm losing because of massive voter fraud.
Another thing people argue: They say "we have to uncover all of these far-fetched unlikely scenarios so that we can guard against them."
Ok. Let's talk about this.
Suppose there are elections, a normal election, and one with an unhinged candidate threatening crazy stuff . . .
In the normal election, you really want to win, so you try to mobilize your voters. You know there will probably be legal issues because there always are, so you put together a top notch legal team. You put security in place in polling areas.
These things happen all the time.
Now, add an unhinged candidate threatening to find ways to steal the election. What do you do? All the same things. (Maybe add a few extra teams of lawyers, and more polling place security, which is what is happening.)
Perhaps because I am a volunteer lawyer on Georgia's Voter Protection Team, and I am constantly recruiting people to work polls, I really don't understand what good comes from spending hours, days, weeks, and months focusing on unlikely events.
Focus on turning out the vote.
People insisting and we need more preparation should say what that would be. More lawyers? More poll workers?
"Preparing" by talking about this 24-7 so issues important to voters are never discussed (and Trump's actual failures are never discussed) helps Trump.
If "preparing" includes persuading voters that the election will be rigged so their votes won't count, well, I'm not seeing how this does anything except help Trump. Persuading people that their votes won't count is actually a form of voter suppression.
The "evidence" we have that Trump will rig the election is Trump's own comments, and the things Trump's campaign manager told the Atlantic⤵️
Trump wants to persuade us that he can rig this election.
I suppose the people who think Trump will be harmed by talking about this believe that Trump supporters will turn away from Trump if they know he's willing to rig an election.
The opposite is true, actually. They will get energized and respect the Mighty Strongman.
(Sorry I keep adding to this thread. It helps me find everything later for my blog)
A good question is whether the article serves any other purpose.
If Trump had an actual way to rig the election, would he send someone to tell a reporter?
For years I was perplexed by what I was seeing on left-leaning Twitter, political blogs, and partisan reporting.
I had the feeling that, in its way, what I was seeing was comparable to Fox: Lots of bad information and even unhinged conspiracy theories.
2terikanefield.com/invented-narra…
Of course, if I suggested that, I was blasted for "both-sidesing."
Then I discovered an area of scholarship: Communications and the overlap between communications and political science.
Another contradiction: when people demanded indictments RIGHT NOW (in 2021 and early 2022) the reason was, "Everyone knows he's guilty! Look at all the evidence!"
We saw the J6 committee findings.
Trump isn't saying "I didn't do it." He's saying, "I had the right to do it."
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We all know what he did. The question is, "Do people want a president who acts like Trump?"
A lot of people do.
People show me polls that a guilty finding would change minds.
I say rubbish. Use common sense. He lost in 2020 and he lost the popular vote in 2016. . .
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. . . because it is designed to keep people hooked. People need to stay glued to the screen for hour after hour.
But to hook people, you need to scare them. The Facebook whistleblower testified that content that produces strong emotions like anger gets more engagement.
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Fox does the same thing. There is a few minutes of news, but the facts get lost as commentators and TV personalities speculate and scare their audiences.
Before you yell at me for comparing MSNBC to FOX, read all of this:
If I write another blog post addressing the outrage cycle here on Twitter and in the MSNBC ecosystem, it will be to explore why so many people who believe they are liberal or progressive actually want a police state.
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Today alone, a handful of people who consider themselves liberal or progressive told me that the "traitors need to be arrested and prosecuted."
In 2019, back when I wore myself out tamping down misinformation, I explained the legal meaning of treason.
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Back then, I now realize, people asked politely: "Can Trump be prosecuted for treason (over the Russia election stuff).
I explained that wouldn't happen.
Now it's different. It's more like fascist chants.
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