fascinating webinar on extension of debt moratorium for developing countries hit by COVID19 pandemic.
Private investor rep:
* debt restructuring a la Ecuador (not Argentina)
* 'we mark to market on daily basis, if you want Private Sector Involvement, that means our investors will question our future strategy'
* private sector will engage - we are doing it with Zambia
*there is countries valuing market access, moratorium on debt payments confused issuers, who did not appreciate the trade-offs
Q: if the private sector is so benevolent, why was there no private response to DSSI (Debt Service Suspension Initiative)?
A: well, it wasnt voluntary.
let's have a discussion, but be aware (a) you need a formal process, with formal advisors; and (b) trade-offs are there
Germany is unhappy with DSSI without private sector involvement because German tax payer money going into debt service to private sector.
It doesnt know how to solve trade-off DSSI/market access, so today the G7 answer: we extend DSSI if country requests IMF loan
talk about the worst of both worlds: G7 solution is IMF austerity + private debt service.
Basically Argentina before Fernandez/Guzman.
to question of what would have private sector done if mandatory involvement in DSSI, asset manager:
'since we mark to market on daily basis, we'd take hit even w one missed coupon payment. We would have asked if it makes sense to adjust portfolio after talking to our investors'
Aberdeen Asset Management rep: we may not have been involved in DSSI, but we engage behind scenes w UNECA and African countries, and what we hear is we want more liquidity, and we work on that with derisking measures (hello #WallStreetConsensus)
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#WallStreetConsensus & its failure to mobilise trillions in @FT
4 things missing:
a) hegemonic dominance of 'mobilising private finance' in development/climate
b) asking why hegemony
c) mushrooming scaling up initiatives
d) do we want success?
a) Mobilising private finance remains global game - (Bridgetown, Biodiversity COP16, 4th Financing for Development conf) & national game (UK Labour gov, Brazil/Colombia/Chile decarbonisation).
*The world's most powerful political narrative that doesnt deliver
b) hegemonic not (just) because Big Finance is powerful, but postneoliberal, transformative state cant get rid of neoliberal macro - independent central bank dominating fiscal.
without macroinstitutional change- How do we pay for transformation- only one answer: private finance
when Big Finance occupies the state and takes over the social contract, nurses struggle, grandparents struggle, parents struggle, renters struggle, private equity flourishes.
no punches pulled on the Commission's Net Zero Industrial Act, the 2022 attempt to respond to Biden's Inflation Reduction Act with a lot of derisking talk but no money (ahem, European Sovereignty Fund)
Climate policy is industrial policy, and the other way around.
An important reminder that EU's climate policy was once ambitious, state-driven decarbonisation.
the Clean Energy Finance Authority would subsidize foreign demand for US cleantech - or derisk BlackRock renewable assets in say, Kenya with subsidies/guarantees.
nothing in this proposal from a top Kamala Harris advisor suggests US should enable technology transfers to countries wishing to pursue their own domestic cleantech capabilities.
in #WallStreetConsensus, Global South are consumers of American cleantech, with American dollars.
Two amazing Global South progressives and a Nobel prize winner walk into an Oxfam panel on post-neoliberalism
Stiglitz: w neoliberalism, the growth of financial markets changed the political game tremendously
Lula 's special advisor @AAbdenur - clear mismatch - Global North openly exposing industrial policy but pushing IMF/World Bank to continue with austerity and partnerships for hyper-financialisation
missing from this @FT account of the rapid rise of infrastructure as an asset class is the sustained effort that G20 governments have put into derisking infrastructure assets for institutional capital - this is the derisking state in action #WallStreetConsensus
@FT with @BJMbraun we've termed this a weak derisking macrofinancial regime - a set of policies (as in the G20 Infrastructure as an Asset Class agenda, or World Bank Maximising Finance for Development) that seeks to mobilise private capital into infrastructure osf.io/preprints/soca…
BlackRock 's recent acquisition of GIP is a bet that governments - under ideological or real constraints on fiscal space - will not pursue public infrastrucuture projects but instead continue to derisk private capital