Evergreen Intel Profile picture
Sep 25, 2020 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Footage from busy highway showing the extent of the Ukrainian An-26 crash.
Possible geolocation of Ukraine AF An-26 crash. Note billboard in center of 2x2 lane highway. This location is 1.25 km from the end of the airbase at Chuhuiv. ImageImage
That prognosis of 90% is not good. Awful thing to happen.

...and they've found 2 survivors so far.

Not good.

Unfortunate. 22 people now confirmed dead in the crash. Sources say there cadets among them, which can only mean many of these were young adults in the prime of their lives. Just awful.

I believe I have found the identification of the An-26 airframe that went down in Ukraine. Number 76. Note yellow lettering aft, placement of the Ukrainian Air Force symbol, red on aileron tip and placement of light/dark camo paint. Image
Here are two screencaps from video footage of the crash. Again, note the yellow 7, placement of the Ukraine Air Force symbol, red on aileron tip and placement of light/dark camo paint. ImageImage
Because Ukraine has lost so many aircraft as a result of the War in the Donbass/loss of Crimea, there are as few as 24 An-26s (now 23) in inventory. I have accounted for 16, including #76 pictured below.

But based on the other identifying marks I have confidence it is this one. Image
Friends at The Aviationist have a source indicating Yellow 76 belonged to the 203rd Training Aviation Brigade which is based at Chuhuiv.

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More from @vcdgf555

Oct 26
Thread. Israel Strikes Back.

"It seems that the Islam Shahr missile factory has been completely destroyed." Per source.

1/
"Israeli Army Radio, citing a military source: The attack against #إيران is in its early stages." Per Al-Jazeera.

2/

NBC News, quoting Israeli official: Oil and Nuclear facilities have NOT been hit.

3/
Read 31 tweets
Sep 23
Key points:
64.8% of the warehouses of Toropets Northeast are gone. By destroyed, most are mere craters now.

The 24.5% of warehouses damaged but still relatively intact will need to be rebuilt, many from the ground up and are likely unsafe to use.

1/
The remaining bunker/warehouses still operable are surrounded by twisted ruins with doubtful electricity, infrastructure and rail (likely crippled post-attack).

Will Russia rebuild? Likely. They've shown stubborness to. But we are talking years to return to prior condition.
2/
The arsenal was one of 13 state arsenals meant for rennovation to meet "the world's highest standards," per then Deputy Defense Minister General of the Army Dmitry Bulgakov. Toropets Northeast was supposed to be hardened against even a nuclear attack.


3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 27
🧵What I remember most about learning of the attack was how everything that'd been a slow grueling grind of expediting info & processing for several weeks came to an abrupt halt. Those trying to get out of the city had to go elsewhere.

It was a cruel end to a horrible month.
1/
I had felt that with so many people and US troops in one place that it was risky; something could happen. One last ISIS-K or Taliban punch. Anything.

At least 182 people - Afghans, Americans, Brits - died. God knows how were maimed.

2/
I'd been helping with a project that had a hard deadline; the attack moved it up. I went back to work, probably out of futility, in case there was an opening. I think many still stuck in Kabul ended up trying for the borders, by road. By foot. The DMs were frantic. Desperate.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Aug 25
Ben Gurion airport, no landings or departures.

2/
Sounds like Israeli Air Force is going to the mat.

3/
Read 31 tweets
Jul 25
The fire has reached and engulfed the Maligne Lodge on the SW side of town. Word that the Petro-Canada is a loss as well.
Image
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Pictured shared by @tiredinAB which appears to be geolocated to a boat dock at Fairmont Jasper Park Lodge showing incredibly high flames toward the south of town.

3/

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Read 17 tweets

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