Thread by @TheEconomist

We have launched our forecasting models for America’s Senate and House races in November. A thread 👇 (1/10) econ.trib.al/57uJi1I

Our House and Senate models are updated daily as more data become available, and will conduct 4.7m simulated elections every day until the vote. Here’s how it works (2/10) econ.trib.al/gUuPh3R

Right now, our model thinks the Democrats are likely to win a majority in the Senate (3/10)

There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs this year. Many are are uncompetitive, so control of the Senate depends on a handful of hard-fought contests (4/10)

The map below displays the party favoured to win each Senate seat and its estimated probability of victory (5/10)

Why are the Democrats our narrow favourites to win the Senate? Our piece here explains the importance of the upper chamber, and the implications of our predictions (6/10)
econ.trib.al/9RK5Cvf

Control of the Senate rests on a knife-edge. Some of the key contests will be those in North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, Maine and Georgia (7/10)
econ.trib.al/LAnoKMz

All 435 seats are up for grabs in the House of Representatives. But right now, our model thinks the Democrats are very likely to keep their majority in the lower chamber (8/10)

Click on our House model below and use the search bar to find out who is predicted to win in your district (9/10)
econ.trib.al/FVJAiHH

To keep tabs on all of The Economist’s campaign coverage, bookmark our US 2020 elections page 🇺🇸 (10/10)
econ.trib.al/RUDVwlT