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Jim Bianco Profile picture
@biancoresearch
Sep 25, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
ft.com/content/98ae29…

The survey by UK pollster Survation found that 60 percent of 91 investment professionals polled in September, most based in the US, believe Mr Biden will win the upcoming matchup slated for November 3.

(1/4)
We have argued investors view the election in the same way the betting market views it.

As highlighted above, 60% of investors think Biden will win. This is nearly identical to what the betting markets have discounted.

@PredictIt

(2/4) Image
These probabilities are not close to how the poll analyzers see it. @FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 77% chance of winning. The @ECONdailycharts models give Biden an 85% chance of winning.

projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-…

(3/4) ImageImage
While both polls and betting markets are pricing in a Biden victory, their odds of that outcome vary quite a bit. Investors skew closer to the betting markets.

In other words, we do not believe the markets have strongly priced in an election outcome one way or the other.

(4/4)

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jul 1
1/8
Yesterday, Jim appeared on Bloomberg TV, warning that if the Fed cuts rates and the market thinks this is wrong, 10-year yields could surge through 5%.

(Perspective ... 10-year yields were last above 5% in October 2023 and as high as 4.85% in January).

🧵
2/8
President Trump disagrees with this thinking and believes the federal funds rate should be 1% right now.

From a "truth" posted on June 30. Image
3/8
If (or should I say when) Trump gets a Fed Chair to make 1% happen, how will the 10-year react?

Reminder of what happened last year to long rates when the Fed cuts rates (peach arrow) and the market does not think it's a good idea (cyan arrow). Image
Read 8 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 26
1/4
I would argue that if the Fed cuts rates and you assume mortgage rates follow the federal funds rate lower (they may NOT be the case), home prices would rise, putting the monthly payment right back at $2,860.

Short 🧵
2/4
This is my favorite metric of home prices because it adjusts for the size of the house.

Redfin downloads every multiple listing service (MLS) across the country to calculate their median.

Prices are at a new all-time high. Image
3/4
Redfin's measure is not a fluke, as the national Case-Shiller Home Price Index is also at an all-time high.

Home prices are booming, benefiting homeowners/sellers. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 14
1/8
Why are we not seeing a "flight-to-quality" into the dollar? Why are bond yields rising?

The answer, I believe, is the markets are NOT viewing Israel/Iran as a safe haven event, but rather a crude oil supply shock story.

IOW, this is NOT viewed as the start of WW III.
🧵
2/8
What is typical when events like happen is we get tables like this.

They are incredibly misleading.

They only highlight known historical events. They don't highlight events that everyone thought was the start of "WW III" but was not.

3/8
Do you remember last year's start of WW III?

The events sound familiar ... Israel attacked Iran and Iran retaliated.

(I'll bet you also forgot WW III also started last year.)

Read 8 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 2
1/12

Polymarket recession odds peaked at 65% on May 1st, the April ISM release date, suggesting Liberation Day and the 20% stock market correction did not damage the economy, as the "soft data" warned.

Subsequent April data confirmed this.

Will May see more of the same?

🧵 Image
2/12

The prevailing narrative in the market for months has been that the labor market is going to fall apart, forcing the Fed to cut rates.

This has not happened, and so far, the "soft" (survey) data have been wildly off in predicting the economy.
3/12

ISM Employment upticked in May from April. The first monthly "May" data point suggests the labor market is still not weakening. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
May 30
1/9
Why The Fed Is Not Cutting Anytime Soon

The economy is rebounding strongly, and prices are rising.

It would be reckless to cut rates under these conditions.

The market knows this ... see this chart.

🧵 Image
2/9
Collapsing Imports are Positive For GDP

*US GOODS IMPORTS FALL 19.8% M/M, BIGGEST DROP ON RECORD

The amount of imported goods declined in April, as expected. April 2 was Liberation Day, and the rise in tariffs slowed imports. Image
3/9
Slowing imports halved the Trade Deficit in April, also as expected. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
May 26
1/5
Inflation Update:

May 1st estimated inflation at 1.35%. 25 days later, they are 0.72% higher at 2.07%.

Tariffs?
--
Truflaton measures more goods than services. Goods inflation is lower than services inflation.

So, the rate of change is more important than the level. Image
2/5
Before, Truflation was the Billion Prices Project, which is now called PriceStats and is owned by State Street Bank. The creator is @albertocavallo

On Thursday, the Financial Times featured some of their work. It says the same thing as truflation.

ft.com/content/b27e76…

See the red line on the right. With increased tariffs (red line to the left), the prices of goods originating from China are increasing rapidly.

Also note that the Chinese-originated price rise (red line to the right) began around May 1st, the same time truflation started its upward march.Image
3/5
From the FT:

The Yale Budget Lab says the average US family would pay $2,800 more for the same basket of products purchased last year, should tariffs remain at their current level, with lower-income homes more exposed.

Chinese products being sold in the US have already seen marked increases in retail prices, according to analysis of high-frequency data from PriceStats by Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School.
Read 5 tweets

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