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John Roberts Profile picture
@john_actuary
Sep 25, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The latest admission for England has topped 300 today, and again a question raised is are these "WITH" COVID or "FROM" COVID? Just like yesterday's analysis of deaths, let's dig into this question a bit... 1/7
First of all, note that any elective admissions, ie for planned surgery, is preceded by a COVID test. If it's positive, the admission doesn't happen. So the only cases that might by chance test positive are emergency admissions for what are believed to be non COVID reasons. 2/7
There are approx 15k such admissions a day. What proportion of them might test positive, yet be totally unrelated? The latest ONS figures give a clue, suggesting that 1 in 500 now has the virus. That would suggest 30, out of the 300 cases. 3/7
That assumes a constant age distribution. But we know that A&E admissions are heavily weighted towards much older ages, and conversely infectivity rates are still heavily skewed towards younger ages. That would suggest that taking 1/500 would be an overstatement. 4/7
We can take data on A&E admissions by age, and the relative infectivity by age groups to adjust for this effect. It reduces the overall number by 15%, so giving a figure of 8.5% 5/7
That assumes that for none of those admitted for apparently unrelated causes, and who subsequently test positive, COVID is a contributory factor. I suspect some will be, but let's assume not for now. 6/7
These figures are estimates, so let's put a range on it and say that between 5% and 10% of admissions reported each day were for other causes who just happened to have COVID. It doesn't materially affect the figure, and it certainly doesn't distort the upward trend. 7/7 ENDS

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
Mar 15, 2024
A great thread on the state pension and National Insurance.

For me, the trailed abolition of NI and thus its replacement by general taxation in terms of funding state pension benefits will have a major generational redistribution of tax.

1/
It’s been the case that (in aggregate) at any one time the working generation funds the SPs of the retired generation above it.

2/
If the abolition of NI results in an increase (albeit smaller - else why bother) in income tax, whilst those in work will in total be better off, pensioners will be worse off.

3/
Read 9 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Feb 7, 2024
The Pensions & Lifetime Savings Association has updated its guide to living costs in retirement. The full report is well worth a read, and goes into a lot of detail.

1/
retirementlivingstandards.org.uk/2023_research_…
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One key point is that it assumes that pensioners own their home outright - probably reasonable now, but the shift to renting means that in future years that may become increasingly questionable.

2/
It focuses on retirement income, but note that other sources may be used to fund retirement, whether it be income from savings/investments, or gradual withdrawal of capital. Much more likely to be relevant for those aspiring to a comfortable lifestyle of course.

3/
Read 7 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Dec 21, 2023
UKHSA estimates that prevalence of COVID in England and Scotland has nearly tripled in the month since the ONS restarted its COVID infection surveillance.

1/
gov.uk/government/sta…
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Fortunately prevalence is lowest at the oldest, more vulnerable age groups, but is estimated at just under 6% in the 18 to 44 age groups.

2/ Image
Prevalence is estimated to be highest in the London area, at just over 6% across the population. Note though that confidence intervals are wider due to lower sample sizes than in previous studies.

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Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Sep 12, 2023
So with the news this morning that the earnings growth announced today means the state pension (SP) will very likely increase by another 8.5% next year, it's time to set out once again why the SP triple lock (TL) is such a bad idea.

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It's all down to cherry-picking the best of the three rates each year. I did a thread nearly a year ago, that hopefully sets out clearly how the mechanism inevitably means that the SP will grow over time against both earnings (E) and prices (P).

2/
Visually, you can easily see how that cherry picking works in practice with this great chart from the FT.

The effect is greatest when one index lags the other by a large amount in one year, and then catches up in the next year.

3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
May 31, 2023
With BH's still distorting individual weeks' figures, the cumulative position gives a better view, with the latest CMI age-standardised analysis showing mortality 3.8% (of a full year's mortality) worse than its reference year of 2019.

1/
That 3.8% of a full year's mortality translates to an excess of 9.3% of YTD expected mortality, or over 21,000 excess deaths.

Bear in mind that pre-pandemic, you'd expect mortality 4 years later to be noticeably lower, due to the previous improving trend.

2/
The 9.3% excess is split 50/50 into "with COVID" deaths (where it was listed as a contributory factor on the death cert), and others.

Over 10,500 registrations in 2023 have had COVID listed as a cause - around two thirds of which it's put as the underlying factor.

3/
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
May 13, 2023
A great example of how @ABridgen will RT any old rubbish, despite how absurd the numbers look, if they fit the anti-vax narrative he is now pursuing.

Even the original poster has now admitted that the figures were completely wrong and deleted the post.

1/
Here's the mea culpa - it was only wrong by a factor of 13, but at least the post has been deleted rather than just corrected and left up, when experience shows that only a fraction of the original audience will see the correction.

So what are the true numbers?

2/ Image
In E&W the peak week in 2020 was just under 9,000, and the second wave peak was pretty close to that number.

In total ONS has recorded 199,728 COVID related deaths in E&W since the pandemic started.

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Read 8 tweets

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