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Sep 26, 2020 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
We all have certain biases when it comes to decision making. This holds true for personal finance as well. And it's important we understand them as at times they can endanger our hard-earned wealth. So here is a list of 5 biases that affect financial decision making
*A THREAD*
#1 Loss Aversion Bias
Loss aversion is the tendency to avoid loss over maximizing gains. Humans are wired in a way that a loss of say Rs. 100 gives us more pain than a profit of say Rs. 200. This behavior forces us to often invest in safer options even for our long-term goals.
How to overcome this bias? The easiest way to avoid this bias is to adopt an overall portfolio perspective and not look at investments individually. When focusing on an overall portfolio level, you generally do not see extreme losses or volatility.
#2 Herd Mentality Bias
It is a phenomenon where we follow what others are doing rather than charting our own path. This behavior is often driven by fear of missing out. For Ex: if the markets go up and everybody joins the race to make quick gains, we too feel the need to do so
How do we free ourselves from this bias? Two words - Asset Allocation. Asset classes move in cycles and no single asset class continues to outperform or underperform. So build a portfolio with an allocation to each asset class.
#3 Mental Accounting
This is one bias that doesn't get much attention. In simple words, it means that we treat money from one source as more important than another. And this behavior is also experienced while investing and can make you take illogical decisions.
So how can you keep this bias in check? The best way, which actually helps you use this bias to your advantage, is following a goal-based investment approach. Once you attach a goal to a particular investment, you mentally allocate that money to a particular purpose.
#4 Availability Bias
It is the human tendency to think of events that come readily to mind; thus making such events more representative than is actually the case. In investments, negative events that have led to severe market corrections are always at the top of investor’s minds
To deal with it, you need to look past all the noise and then act. Sure, market correction hurt. But after every fall comes rise and if you want to make the most when the markets bounce back, then look at the fall as an investment opportunity and not a reason to exit.
#5 Recency Bias
Recency Bias is our tendency to weigh recent events more heavily than earlier events. We often overemphasize on more recent events than those in the near or distant past and shift our focus towards the asset class in favor of today.
To overcome, the first thing you need to do is to understand that looking at the past track record of things to ascertain their future is not the right thing to do. An asset class performing well today might not do well tomorrow.
You can also watch our video to understand these biases in detail -

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More from @ETMONEY

Apr 23
3 BIG changes in health insurance from Apr 1, 2024:

1. No disputes in claims after 5 years of policy coverage

2. Shorter waiting period for pre-existing and specified illnesses

3. No age limit to buy health insurance

Details in the thread. 🧵
1. Dispute-free claims after 5 years

Insurance companies can deny claims alleging a policyholder hid some key health issues.

But this cannot happen once you have paid premiums for 8 continuous years.

Good news: This period has now been reduced to only 5 years.
Simply put, if you pay premiums for 5 continuous years, the insurer cannot deny any claim covered by the policy on any grounds except fraud.

This will undoubtedly help a lot of policyholders.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 17
PPFAS Flexi Cap manages over Rs 60,500 cr.

Its AUM has grown nearly 35 times in the last 5 years.

But, many investors now worry that performance might suffer due to its colossal size.

Does this really happen?

Is there a link between size and performance? A 🧵
We looked at 4 categories:

Flexi cap, Large Cap, Mid Cap & Small Cap.

We observed 2 trends:

1. The biggest fund in each category has been among the top performers

2. In most funds that grew quickly, AUM size didn’t necessarily impact their performance (Analysis from tweet 6)
So, how do those funds with massive AUMs keep up their game?

A fund with an AUM of Rs 60,000 cr might seem huge compared to its peers.

But even these giants are more like small fish in the ocean of Indian stock markets.

Check some numbers. 👇
Read 15 tweets
Apr 13
PSU stocks have witnessed a dream run recently.

Last 1-year returns:

Nifty 50: 30%
Nifty PSE: 94%
Nifty PSU Bank: 85%

But now, they seem overvalued. (Data in following tweets)

While some stocks are still attractively priced, there are many concerning signs. Details in🧵 Image
Let’s start with why PSU stocks seem a bit pricey now.

We looked at the Nifty PSE index's PE ratio, which can suggest if it's undervalued or overpriced.

A quick peek shows its current P/E (9.63) is higher than its median of 8.4 since April 2020, indicating overvaluation. Image
The Nifty PSU Bank index also follows a similar trend.

The current P/B ratio (a more accurate measure to check valuation for banks) is 1.54 compared to a median of 0.81.

This is again signaling overvaluation, with most stocks being overbought. Image
Read 13 tweets
Apr 9
If returns are the same, how do you choose a fund?

Example:

ICICI Pru Bluechip Fund: 42%
Taurus Large Cap: 45%

Both schemes have similar one-year returns. But which one is better?

Let’s compare them on 5 parameters to get the answer. A🧵
1. Standard Deviation

It shows the ups and downs an investor would experience by investing in a fund.

The higher this number, the wilder the ride.

ICICI Pru Bluechip’s standard deviation: 11.59%
Taurus Large Cap: 15.81%

So, the Taurus’ fund is riskier.
2. Beta

This one reveals how risky a fund is compared to its benchmark.

A higher beta implies more volatility than the benchmark. A lower beta means less volatility.

ICICI Pru Bluechip’s beta: 0.87
Taurus Large Cap: 1.12

Again, ICICI Pru Bluechip scores here.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 5
REITs & InvITs are on fire.

They gave up to 23% returns in the last year, according to an Economic Times report.

No wonder mutual funds’ holdings in them have doubled in 1 year.

So, let’s take a crack at them. A 🧵

Bonus: We’ll cover how to pick the best REITs & InvITS. Image
First, the basics.

‘REIT’ stands for real estate investment trust.

It is like a mutual fund that invests in real estate - not real-estate stocks but real property.

In most cases, this piece of real estate is commercial. Examples: Offices, malls, etc.
You can profit from REITs in 2 ways.

1. REIT managers pass on the rent they earn periodically. (Called ‘Distribution’)

2. Just like the price of a share, the price of a REIT’s units can rise or fall on exchanges. So, you can sell them at a higher price to make a profit. Image
Read 18 tweets
Apr 4
Are small-cap stocks nearing a crash?

There is a lot of noise around this.

So, we’ll lean on 3 crucial parameters to get an answer.

We will also answer how you can invest in small-caps now.

Let’s start.👇A thread 🧵
1. PE RATIO OF NIFTY SMALLCAP 250

This ratio tells you how much investors are willing to pay for earnings of Rs 1.

So, we looked at the current PE of the index & compared it to the long-term average.

What did we find?

The index appears overvalued.

Check some numbers. 👇
NIFTY Smallcap 250’s current PE = 26.78

The long-term average = 23.93

So, it is trading at a 12% premium.

Even compared to NIFTY 50, the small-cap index is trading at a 17% premium.

Historically, the small-cap index trades at a 6.3% premium to the large-cap index. Image
Read 16 tweets

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