Markets move in cycles, and winning sectors keep changing.

If you can spot which sectors will lead next, you can earn market-beating returns.

Here are 4 smart strategies to help you pick winning sectors. A 🧵 1. Tracking Economic Cycles

The economy moves in cycles: expansion, peak, contraction, and recovery.

Tracking economic and business indicators can help you figure out where we are in that cycle and which sectors are likely to perform well next.

HDFC Focused 30 Fund is topping the charts across 1, 3, and 5-year returns.

But it wasn’t always like this. It has turned around since 2020.

That’s why its 5-year returns are more impressive than its 10-year returns.

What are the factors working for the fund? A🧵 The fund was launched in September 2004.

Until 2020, its performance was a mixed bag.

Between 2005 and 2020 (16 calendar years), the fund managed to beat its benchmark (Nifty 500 TRI) only 8 times.

It saw some good years, but some forgettable ones as well.

If you understand the financials of a burger-selling stall, you can easily read the financial statements of a conglomerate like Reliance Industries.

Let’s simplify the Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement to the extent even your child can understand.

A🧵 1. Balance Sheet

Imagine you start a burger stall.

You invest ₹50,000 from your pocket. This is your equity.

Further, you borrow ₹20,000 from a friend @ 5% Interest. This becomes your liability.

Total money you raised = Rs 70,000

One in three active equity funds fail to justify the risks they are taking.

The amount of risk they take does not match the returns they deliver.

SEBI’s recent metric reveals this.

Once you know this, it may change how you choose mutual funds.

A 🧵 Why Risk-Adjusted Returns Matter

Say, two people invest ₹1L. After a year, both have ₹1.08L.

One chose FDs, the other equities.

Same return, different risk.

Was it worth it for the equity investor? NO.

That’s why risk-adjusted returns are important, not just returns.

Markets have started to recover.

During this phase, Value/Contra funds shine.

So, we examined the 3 most popular schemes in this space:

SBI Contra
ICICI Pru Value Discovery
Invesco India Contra

All of them have given impressive returns. Which one is better for you? 🧵 Let’s start with their trailing returns.

The Contra Fund from @SBIMF shines in the short to medium term, while Invesco India Contra leads in the long term.

However, all 3 funds have comfortably outperformed their category average and benchmark in the 3, 5, and 10-year periods.

Ather’s IPO issue opens tomorrow (Apr 28, 2025).

Backed by Hero MotoCorp, it has slick tech and big expansion dreams.

Its listed rival Ola’s EV ride has been anything but smooth so far.

Can Ather be a better bet for the EV two-wheeler race?

A🧵 We will cover 4 key aspects in this analysis:

- Ather’s business model
- Financials
- Compare its numbers with competitors
- Key IPO details
Finally, we will wrap up with the positives and key concerns.

Gold has been the ultimate safe haven for years, and rightly so.

After all, it held firm during tough times – be it the 2008 crash or the chaos of COVID.

But does it never crash? How volatile can it get?

We crunched 20 years of data to find out. A🧵 First, some key numbers for perspective.

Gold’s impressive show isn’t limited to crisis years alone.

We checked nearly two decades of data (2006-2024).

And gold delivered negative returns in just 4 calendar years. (See table)

Does this mean it is immune to sharp falls?

Building your first ₹1 crore takes more time than the next ₹9 crore combined.

Sounds wild — but it’s true.

The journey from ₹1 crore to ₹10 crore doesn’t get harder. It gets faster.

Here’s the math and mindset shift that explains why 🧵 Let's start with some surprising numbers.

Getting to ₹1 Cr might feel like 10% of the ₹10 Cr journey, but it takes 45% of the total time.

Because all your effort comes BEFORE compounding picks up steam.

Trump has made tariffs a hot topic.

However, countries use many other innovative ways to restrict imports.

There is a whole playbook of tricks for blocking foreign goods, without charging a rupee.

Here are 5 smart trade barriers countries use to protect their economies.🧵 1. Import Quota

It caps the amount of a product that can be imported.

If a country says, “We will import only 10,000 tons of sugar this year,” that’s a quota.

It shields local producers from foreign competition.

Debt funds used to be tax-friendly.

Then came the rule change in 2023 — now they’re taxed at your slab rate.

But fund houses have quietly found a way out.

They’re tweaking the debt-oriented Fund of Funds (FoFs) to slash your tax to just 12.5%.

Let’s see how it works. A🧵 First, let’s simplify Fund of Fund (FoF).

It's a mutual fund that doesn’t invest in stocks or bonds directly.

Instead, it invests in other mutual funds.

So, a debt-oriented FoF primarily (at least 65% of its corpus) invests in multiple debt schemes.

What if you invest in companies that give the worst returns?

Can you beat the markets with a Loser Portfolio?

Valuation guru Aswath Damodaran says it works in the US.

Is it possible with Indian stocks? Let’s find out. A 🧵 We did a simple exercise to put this theory to the test.

Every year, we picked the worst-hit stocks (by price decline) and invested an equal amount in each.

The idea was simple: We wanted to check if big losers bounce back.

Nifty 500 crashed 3.42% today.

But this isn’t new.

Markets have tanked as much as 13% in a day.

And they’ve always bounced back — sometimes in less than a month.

But here’s the interesting part: SIPs recover even faster. A🧵 We analysed past market crashes using the Nifty 500 index.

For each crash, we looked at:

1. How long the market took to recover
2. How long an SIP took to recover

We assumed a monthly SIP of ₹5,000 starting 3 years before the crash.

The idea was to check how quickly the SIP recouped its losses.

233 stocks from BSE 500 have fallen over 20% since Sept 2024.

How do you pick the best quality stocks trading at reasonable valuations after correction?

Here’s a 9-step framework to separate gems from traps. A 🧵

Using this, we got a list of 15 stocks (covered in tweet 14). What is this framework?

We tested companies on 9 metrics related to profitability, leverage, liquidity, and efficiency. (See image)

Now, this isn’t just any checklist.

Known as Piotroski F-Score, it is a proven framework by Prof. Joseph Piotroski.

Your HR will soon ask: Old Regime or New Regime?

After Budget 2025, the New Regime looks like the obvious choice.

However, for some taxpayers, the Old Regime can still make sense.

How will you decide? Let’s break it down. 🧵 Let’s start with how both these tax regimes work.

Old Regime

It allows you to lower your taxable income through various deductions (PPF, ELSS, NPS, etc.) and exemptions (HRA, LTA, etc).

Let’s understand this with an example.

The Nifty Smallcap 250 Index fell 12.64% in February.

But your SIP returns (XIRR) might show a shocking -80%.

Does that mean your ₹10,000 SIP investment is now worth just ₹2,000?

No!

Then why does XIRR show such a big drop? Let’s break it down. 🧵 In SIPs, each instalment is invested on a different date.

So, some investments get more time to grow, and some get relatively less time.

Since the time of investment varies, simple return calculations don’t give an accurate picture.

That’s where XIRR comes in.

Last 1-year returns:

Nifty Smallcap 250: 6.5%
Tata Small Cap: 15%

This outperformance isn’t a one-off.

The fund has consistently beaten the index as well as its category average.

Its biggest strength? It protects your returns when markets fall.

A 🧵 on its investment strategy. 1. Focus on minimising losses

Corrections in small caps can be brutal. But this fund has handled them effectively.

Since its inception, Nifty Smallcap 250 has had 29 negative months. Tata Small Cap outperformed in 26.

In 10 months, when the index fell more than 5%, it did better in 9.

A simple hack before Mar 31 can help you save tax on the gains you made from stocks and equity funds.

Here’s what you can do:

- Sell your investments
- Book profits & losses
- Repurchase immediately

This is called ‘Tax Harvesting’. Let’s see how it works.

A 🧵 A few basics before we jump to tax harvesting strategy

Your profits from equities are divided into two buckets:

1. Short term: If you sell within one year (of purchase)
2. Long-term: If you sell after one year

How can you make the best returns, taking the least possible risk?

Nobel Prize winner Harry Markowitz spent his life researching this 👆.

His study led to Modern Portfolio Theory, which revolutionised investing.

Here’s a simplified version that every investor must know.

A 🧵 First, let’s understand Markowitz’s principles.

He showed you can earn better returns by taking lower risks if you diversify.

But is that possible?

Equity can grow at 12%-14%. Debt offers just 6%-8% returns.

Can a low-return asset make your portfolio more efficient?

IT’S POSSIBLE! 👇

Funds that usually fall less during corrections tend to do well over the long term.

Parag Parikh Flexi Cap is a good example of this.

But how do you pick funds like PPFAS Flexi Cap in other categories?

Here’s the framework and a list of 8 similar funds across categories.

A🧵 Before we share the names (it’s in tweet 10), let's quickly examine how we selected them.

We looked at 5 popular fund categories.

(1) Multi Cap, (2) Large & Mid Cap, (3) Flexi Cap, (4) Mid Cap and (5) Small Cap.

We filtered them in 3 simple steps.

Have you started an SIP recently and feel underwhelmed by the returns?

There’s something called the 8-4-3 SIP rule.

It explains how returns truly work over time.

Let’s understand this in detail. 👇 🧵 8-4-3 is a compounding rule.

First 8 years – Returns are usually modest. This period can test your patience.

Next 4 years – Your corpus nearly doubles.

Next 3 years – Compounding accelerates.

Let’s understand this with an example.

Are markets still overvalued?

Sensex is down 13.6% since it hit an all-time high in Sep 2024.

The pain is worse in mid and small caps:
BSE Midcap: -21.4%
BSE Smallcap: -24.2%

Despite such a steep correction, markets are still not fairly valued, as per long-term data.

A🧵 To answer that, we'll analyse 4 key valuation metrics:

1. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio
2. Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE) Ratio
3. Market Cap to GDP Ratio
4. Bond Equity Earnings Yield (BEER) Ratio

Let’s start.