Here are all the actual satellites in orbit in this range of heights and inclinations (green = working, red = dead). See how they are almost all right on the magenta SSO line. They are also almost all below 1000 km. The rest of the diagram is really empty of satellites!
Now let's add in orbital debris. Generic orbital debris in black; debris from the 2007 Chinese antisatellite test in blue. You couldn't have picked a much worse region of orbital parameter space to make a big debris cloud.
Finally, here is a zoom in on the busiest part of SSO, omitting the debris
And here's the same zoom in region showing debris that is NOT from the Chinese ASAT, so they are not the only culprits. I think this debris is mostly from US rocket stages that disintegrated accidentally, but I'll have to dig deeper to check that.
And for completeness, the debris that is from the Chinese ASAT, in the same zoomed-in part of orbital parameter space
There are 2679 debris pieces in the plot from the ASAT. There are a comparable number, 2609 pieces, from other launches, all accidental breakups. Half of those pieces are from just 6 breakups:
455 pieces from the US NOAA 16 battery explosion in 2015
273 from the breakup of US rocket stage Agena 6231 in 1970
221 from the US DMSP F-13 battery explosiion in 2015
188 from the Chinese CZ-4B Y1 rocket stage in 2000
183 from Delta 111, 1991
149 from Delta 139, 1981
The Delta, Agena and CZ-4B stages are thought to have broken up due to residual propellant igniting many years after the stages were abandoned in orbit.
NOAA 16 and DMSP F-13 were respectively civil and military versions of the same weather satellite design which had a generic problem with exploding batteries (they are not the only cases, just the worst in SSO).
As a comparison I thought I'd show a different (but comparable size) region of parameter space, away from SSO. This is much emptier of active satellites except for the 51.6 deg inclination slot used by the ISS and related objects
And more equatorial regions of LEO are almost deserted of objects
(Of course on every orbit the polar orbit satellites pass through the space occupied by the more equatorial ones - don't be misled into thinking that the orbit parameter space is the same as physical space)
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WOOHOO! THANK YOU EVERYONE - I HAVE REACHED THE $100K GOAL. Thanks especially to the generous folks at @COMSPOC and to the other large donor who prefers to be anonymous, but also to every single one of you. This will help a LOT.
HOWEVER - I just got back from a week of property-hunting in the UK. Alas, I will not be able to acquire the particular place I had in mind - I got outbid and there would have been planning reg issues anyway. I've found a few other possibilities and am continuing to look.
It will work out, but I am going to continue accepting donations in the hope of making another tier of properties affordable.
Back from an intense week at the American Astronomical Society meeting. Much to report and much still to catch up on, but I'll start tonight with an update on the Starship flight
Starship Flight 7 was launched at 2237 UTC Jan 16 from Starbase, Texas, but failed to reach orbit. I will assign designation 2025-F01 to the launch. Super Heavy Booster 14 reached an apogee of 91 km, performed a boostback burn, and was caught by the launch tower.
Ship 33 separated from Booster 14 at 2m40s. There are three 'center' and three 'outboard' Raptor engines on Ship. At T+7:40 one center engine went out, followed at T+8:02 by a second center one and T+8:04 by the adjacent outboard one.
The planned trajectory of the North Korean satellite launch, as estimated by me based on debris warning areas, passes 500 km above the Okinawa region - higher than the International Space Station. The only landmass it goes directly over is the uninhabited island of Irisuna-jima.
It is possible that the second stage could shut down early, or that the yaw manuever prior to stage 2 ignition could go off course, so it is not completely *impossible* for debris from the launch to hit the Okinawa region. But it is very, very unlikely.
Thus, I consider Japanese goverment hyperventilation about the launch to be rather excessive.
Thanks to a tip from @martyn_williams I took a look at the warning areas for the upcoming (NET May 31) North Korean recon sat launch.
The map below shows the launch site, polygonal warning areas and (orange lines) my fit to the trajectories. (1/n)...
@martyn_williams I think the first and second warning areas correspond to first stage and nose fairing impact zones, and correspond to a -5650 x 150 km x 93.9 deg (sub)orbit (apogee not well constrained).
@martyn_williams Then the second stage makes a 'dog leg' yaw change to head southeast, firing at 1st stage apogee to a -5240 x 500 km x 75.7 deg orbit with impact east of the Phillipines. This trajectory has an apogee over 127.1E 26.1N.
On Tuesday at 2pm I'll be in room 205 for the "Space as an Environment" splinter session which will include an update on the issue of satellite constellations affecting ground based astronomy
That topic will be continued on Wed at 10am, room 201/202, for the "Space as an Environment" open house, where I'll be tabling and available for informal discussion about the satcon and other space env issues #AAS241
On Wed at 12.45 at the AAS reg desk I invite alumni of the SAO Astronomy Summer REU to join me for our traditional networking lunch expedition, actual eating venue still TBD #AAS241
The Japanese space agency JAXA is preparing to deploy 3 cubesats from the ISS.
The cubesats are stored in the J-SSOD #24 deployer, which was brought to ISS on Dragon CRS-26 and transferred internally to the Kibo module.
The Japanese JRMS robot arm has extracted J-SSOD #24 from the Kibo airlock and is now holding the deployer out against the direction of ISS motion so that the ejected sats will not recontact ISS.
The first sat to be ejected will be the 1U test satellite SS-1 (SuryaSat) from Surya University in Jakarta.