Nathan Ruser Profile picture
Sep 26, 2020 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The last few days have seen a few people try to discredit our report of 380+ detention facilities in Xinjiang by finding one they don't agree with, this THREAD will collect my threads debunking each and every one of these 'debunks'. If you find more thow them my way.
This site was referred to by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs to call our claims completely false. Of course, they're wrong.
Here's a thread claiming that a camp is actually a school with video footage to prove it, but the video footage isn't shot within 5km of the camp.
Here's another debunk of a claim that is apparently going around privately to people interested in China to discredit our whole dataset.
I'm only going to address these sorts of debunkings once, because they're simply to do with the fact that if you look at satellite imagery from 2013, you won't see things built in 2017. When you look at newer satellite imagery suddenly they appear.
Another one, it actually was a middle school in Nilqa, an activist group visited it and confirmed it, plus satellite imagery from the time shows pervasive internal fencing and channels to move detainees.
bitterwinter.org/school-convert…
@MyUKnumber4
Another one, the coordinates are wrong again. Maybe to do with the fact that coordinates dont easily translate into Google's China data (it's illegal to have accurate map data for China so they need to offset it).
@zhangxin9261
An Australian academic tried to find holes in our camps dataset. It boiled down to the fact that buildings used for other things were turned into camps in 2017/18.
(we also have evidence of retirement homes, schools, disease centers, hospitals and more)
Seeing a point on Baidu Maps and going hoitytoity these warmongers must be wrong, without doing literally any research (which seems to be a common thread) is the exact same energy as going wewwww the three gorges dam looks weird on google earth it must be about to collapse.
To illustrate some of the differences between schools and camps, see these three photos of a school in Peyziwat, from before (2016), after (2017) and annotated. This is basically the lowest security that detention facilities come, yet the ubiquitous security is clear.

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More from @Nrg8000

Dec 11
🧵Look towards the light.
As Rebel forces in Syria advanced across Syria & never stopped a key question was why the Regime evaporated. Syria by night provides some clues on how the Regime's social contract collapsed.
Read my analysis here
& read onaspistrategist.org.au/just-look-at-t…Image
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There are three pillars to why the Regime collapsed so suddenly and drastically:
1. Complete lack of foreign firepower and air support
2. Increased professionalism and good governance in Opposition territory
3. Economic stagnation and the collapse of Assad's social contract. Image
I'm sure lots will be written on that first pillar, @azelin recently wrote a detailed and helpful article on the 2nd (warontherocks.com/2024/12/the-pa…), and @E_of_Justice's thread here is helpful too x.com/E_of_Justice/s…
Read 26 tweets
Nov 6
I think the rest of the world just has to realise the US we thought we all knew probably just doesn't exist and hasn't for a while. We need to shift our assumptions and look at the US in the same way we look at India.
Harris didn't lose this race, and post mortems are useless. America made an informed and considered choice and picked the man they did. There's probably not much a reasonable democratic campaign could've done to change that. America saw Trump. And they liked him.
This also isn't a slight on India, it's a remarkable (and deeply flawed) country that we work with productively and well, it's just an entirely different ballgame (and sense of exceptionalism), and honestly the lens we will need to look at the States through imo.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 13
🧵On May 17, fire swept through Rohingya neighbourhoods in Buthidaung.
Satellites show what burnt and when, and my new investigation reveals an arson campaign against 50-60 villages & demonstates who carried it out.

Read it in full ⬆️ and follow along ⬇️ aspistrategist.org.au/they-left-a-tr…

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Through April and May, arson attacks burnt around 900 acres and over 10,000 homes across Buthidaung township in the most concerning and dangerous bout of sectarian and communal violence since the 2017 pogrom that expelled Rohingyas from much of northern Arakan state.
As flames rose above Buthidaung town on the night of May 17th, the activist community and eyewitnesses pointed the finger at the Arakan Army, an ultra-nationalist Ethnic Resistance Organisation rapidly capturing that part of Burma. Something the AA viciously denied. Image
Read 19 tweets
May 11
🧵A very brief OSINT methods thread to share how I found the location of a Burmese junta camp that was captured by the resistance today, it's a method I've used a lot for more obscure unnamed places that would be nearly impossible to find otherwise.
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Today news came out from a reputable local media source of a junta camp that was captured in Southern Myanmar, normally news in Burma is reported with the name of a nearby village or at least the township. But not here, only that it was in the KNLA's 4th Brigade 11th Battalion. Image
The KNLA's 4th Brigade operates in Tanintharyi Region, and google searching for info about the 11th battalion shows it is mainly active in Bokpyin township

But of course, finding one tower with a loose lead of maybe a township is going to be tricky.bnionline.net/en/news/killin…
Read 14 tweets
Feb 25
I've started reading Our Enemies Will Vanish, a masterful book on the Ukraine War by @yarotrof. Highly recommend it. It contains heaps of tidbits and insights that even someone who followed the invasion closely (i'll count myself) had no idea of.
I'll share some threaded here. Image
@yarotrof (get your hands on the book if you possible can, the tidbits here are just the tip of the iceberg, truly recommend reading the whole thing).
Firstly, this account of a meeting between Bill Burns and Putin months before the invasion where Putin cited US' impotence post Afghanistan Image
@yarotrof And that Ukraine's military preparations on the heel of US intel warnings were so secret that even Washington had no idea about them (to prevent info going from GUR > DC > Kyiv > Russian Fifth Column) Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 23, 2023
I was wanting to check if this IDF graphic was an approximation or a measured/to-scale diagram, so by tracing the various video walkthroughs, I was able to make my own NOT TO SCALE map, suggesting it was a pretty accurate representation but missing some 'branches' explored since.
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The most notable difference is a partially-blocked tunnel leading beyond where the walkthroughts turn left to go towards the spiral staircase. A seperate IDF video showed a 3rd entrance around 125m beyond that intersection, so I've assumed that's where it leads. Image
I've done my best geolocating that entrance by looking for a wide-ish street (with no road markings), that curves slightly to the right & goes downhill, and that has two visible small but distinct orange-roofed areas, along with some vegetation in a front yard. Decent match.
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Read 6 tweets

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