Picking quarrels and provoking trouble (寻衅滋事)
🎵I'm working late, cause I'm a mapper 🎵
Analyst at @ASPI_CTS
54 subscribers
There are three pillars to why the Regime collapsed so suddenly and drastically: 
Through April and May, arson attacks burnt around 900 acres and over 10,000 homes across Buthidaung township in the most concerning and dangerous bout of sectarian and communal violence since the 2017 pogrom that expelled Rohingyas from much of northern Arakan state.
Today news came out from a reputable local media source of a junta camp that was captured in Southern Myanmar, normally news in Burma is reported with the name of a nearby village or at least the township. But not here, only that it was in the KNLA's 4th Brigade 11th Battalion. 
@yarotrof (get your hands on the book if you possible can, the tidbits here are just the tip of the iceberg, truly recommend reading the whole thing).
The most notable difference is a partially-blocked tunnel leading beyond where the walkthroughts turn left to go towards the spiral staircase. A seperate IDF video showed a 3rd entrance around 125m beyond that intersection, so I've assumed that's where it leads. 
The attack on Loikaw comes simultaneously as an attack on Moebye, another major town nearby where ~6 Junta posts have been captured. The KNDF has been spending the last week systematically eradicating junta presence from between Moebye and Loikaw, to stage for these attacks. 
This is why it can be known as the 'Iron-Dome shield', each missile battery can defend against ~150km2 and targets the rockets towards the end of their trajectory, after the fuel has burnt off and the trajectory is more predictable. 
First, I should mention that this thread isn't a forensic or expert investigation, I'm just sharing what I see and what I've seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another. Nor does this negate the countless civilians killed in Israel's campaign.
On Monday (2023-09-18), PDF/CDF fighters overran a Pyu Saw Htee checkpoint near Kant Thet at the entrance to Ka-Pa-Sa (Defence Manufacturing Plant) 23. This attack highlights junta's dwindling manpower, relying on civilian militias to protect a missile-manufacturing facility. 
Obviously, the purpose of this data is to provide insight to people far more knowledgable in the military tactics and strategy than me, so I won't focus too much on my armchair general takes, but I do want to share a few quick things that mapping this mas made me realise.
The satellite imagery shows land over the past two months (since April 15th). Overall, around 1,000 fortification lines have been mapped in the area. These certainly present a challenge to Ukrainian forces trying to move through the landscape and attack in depth.
@PlanetImagery It is also evident in Sentinel-2 imagery, though less clearly. 
To make this, I used RFERL extracts of @planet imagery (huge thanks to @Mike_Eckel and @kromark)
If you're trans and read the first hand accounts of young women who have been forcibly detained and detransitioned at private 'camps' and think 'reporting on this is the issue' then you are a broken broken person.