I've started reading Our Enemies Will Vanish, a masterful book on the Ukraine War by @yarotrof. Highly recommend it. It contains heaps of tidbits and insights that even someone who followed the invasion closely (i'll count myself) had no idea of.
I'll share some threaded here. @yarotrof (get your hands on the book if you possible can, the tidbits here are just the tip of the iceberg, truly recommend reading the whole thing).
Firstly, this account of a meeting between Bill Burns and Putin months before the invasion where Putin cited US' impotence post Afghanistan

I was wanting to check if this IDF graphic was an approximation or a measured/to-scale diagram, so by tracing the various video walkthroughs, I was able to make my own NOT TO SCALE map, suggesting it was a pretty accurate representation but missing some 'branches' explored since.

The most notable difference is a partially-blocked tunnel leading beyond where the walkthroughts turn left to go towards the spiral staircase. A seperate IDF video showed a 3rd entrance around 125m beyond that intersection, so I've assumed that's where it leads.

In Loikaw, a State capital in Myanmar, the district court has been overrun and destroyed by the KNDF and its armed resistance. After capturing the university on Wednesday, they are now barely 1km from the state capital building.

The attack on Loikaw comes simultaneously as an attack on Moebye, another major town nearby where ~6 Junta posts have been captured. The KNDF has been spending the last week systematically eradicating junta presence from between Moebye and Loikaw, to stage for these attacks.

😮‍💨
Looking at the 'splash' analysis is only relevant if the projectile had completed a nice parabolic trajectory & fired correctly.

It has next to no relevance in a hypothesis where there's a misfire and a mostly 'falling' projectile. Therefore, this isn't really helpful.

https://twitter.com/ForensicArchi/status/1715422493274427414

I have the utmost respect for Forensic Architecture, but when the analysis conducted is only valid in the scenario of one hypothesis and is invalid had the circumstances of another hypothesis happened, then it's not really useful in determining between them.

This 'investigation' is flawed. It concludes that the al-Ahli hospital explosion was from an Iron-Dome intercepted rocket that fell/exploded.

This is demonstrably untrue as the Iron-Dome is a terminal-phase interceptor. It does not intercept in the launch phase.

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1714984258358391057

This is why it can be known as the 'Iron-Dome shield', each missile battery can defend against ~150km2 and targets the rockets towards the end of their trajectory, after the fuel has burnt off and the trajectory is more predictable.

This thread is going around attempting to show 'proof' that Israel was responsible for the explosion at the Gazan hospital.

It does not, the video is from a totally different incident, hour after the hospital blast and shows a strike 1.5-4km away. I'll explain why.

https://twitter.com/AyazK100/status/1714558676378488832

First, I want to preface this analysis by pointing out that this account has been spreading disinformation and denialism about Ukraine for over a year. They have never acted in good faith, but for the people sharing his crap without knowing this I'll refute it at face value.

🧵Now that day has broken, and we're getting better evidence, I'm willing to share some PRELIMINARY thoughts on the al-Ahli hospital explosion. The photos of the scene are, to me, not consistent with an airstrike and are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed.

First, I should mention that this thread isn't a forensic or expert investigation, I'm just sharing what I see and what I've seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another. Nor does this negate the countless civilians killed in Israel's campaign.

A 🧵of military defeats of the Burmese junta, who have faced 2 two years of concerted, nationwide revolt against the Sit-Tat and their coup.
Starting with the Daru H'ka bridge outpost. The first major outpost S of Sumprabum, fell to the KIA on Wednesday (2023-09-20) morning.



On Monday (2023-09-18), PDF/CDF fighters overran a Pyu Saw Htee checkpoint near Kant Thet at the entrance to Ka-Pa-Sa (Defence Manufacturing Plant) 23. This attack highlights junta's dwindling manpower, relying on civilian militias to protect a missile-manufacturing facility.

🧵I've updated this fortifications data to include all Southern occupied Ukraine (Donetsk city - Crimea - Kinburn) with 2,389 fortifications traced from new satellite imagery. A download link is included.
nrg800.users.earthengine.app/view/russianfo…
So what does this mean for the Ukrainian offensive?

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1667119808494829568

Obviously, the purpose of this data is to provide insight to people far more knowledgable in the military tactics and strategy than me, so I won't focus too much on my armchair general takes, but I do want to share a few quick things that mapping this mas made me realise.

While Ukraine's offensive in Zaporizhia is starting to ramp up, Russia has spent the last 2 months fortifying defensive lines across the entire oblast.
Ive made an interactive map that shows the most recent satellite imagery and these lines.
nrg800.users.earthengine.app/view/russianfo…
Download below The satellite imagery shows land over the past two months (since April 15th). Overall, around 1,000 fortification lines have been mapped in the area. These certainly present a challenge to Ukrainian forces trying to move through the landscape and attack in depth.

This is incredible, since the collapse of Kakhovka Dam, you can actually see (in @PlanetImagery) the baymetry reflected in the surface currents and flow along with the old path of the river before it was dammed in 1956!
If anyone knows why this is happening, super fascinated. @PlanetImagery It is also evident in Sentinel-2 imagery, though less clearly.
I'm sure it must be some form of how old stagnant water is mixing with the surface flow? but very interested in getting a better idea.

Using satellite imagery to gauge the flood-level along the Dnipro River on June 7th, this map shows an estimate of the flood depth on the 7th.
The satellite imagery used to estimate the flood was centred on Kherson, and uncertainty grows as you get further away from there. To make this, I used RFERL extracts of @planet imagery (huge thanks to @Mike_Eckel and @kromark)

https://twitter.com/IrynaVoichuk/status/1666528705378766859

, georeferenced the images, plotted points at the edge of the floodwaters to create a flood-elevation surface and compared that to FABDEM elevation models.

OK, ISW is becoming a major problem in the media ecosystem. This assessment is just a hunch from their mapping team (one that I disagree with), and yet their role in providing maps will see this (bad) opinion laundered as fact by many journalists who print what they say verbatim.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1653906530087890947

You can have reasonable theories that this was a false flag, I disagree for the simple fact that it makes the Kremlin look inept and weak as hell. But the point is, it's irresponsible to throw these largely baseless theories out there knowing how they'll be consumed.

If you need a reminder that by 2023 we're living in the future, here's a video of Burmese resistance fighters dropping bombs from drones on fascist coupist military cronies to high-vibe electro music (specifically @1N1KO).

Don't worry Iniko, these are the good guys. @1N1KO Fighting against a genocidal and murderous occupying coup force in the Myanmar Ricefields, but still keeping up with your spotify New Releases playlist (this song came out less than a month ago). Very based.

This study's getting a bit of attention, but reading through it, it is deeply deeply problematic, & I would consider the findings invalid. It is built on a dataset that inflates the reliability of recent sightings (2 in 2005 were scored 5/5 reliabile). Bad data in, bad data out.

https://twitter.com/JackDAshby/status/1639210717050961922

The study runs its probability models on verified sightings and comes out with a mean extinction date of 1937 (95% ci: 1934-1938), but once they add the ludicrous unconfirmed sightings in the database (where the headline figure comes from) it becomes 2011 lmao.

Lots of critical (in both senses of the word) conversations about the recent Crikey article on Transphobia in China. The original piece is worth a read, but these threads are also crucial in understanding the story. Firstly,

https://twitter.com/qianjinghua/status/1635613322614538242

by @qianjinghua.

... @qianjinghua So is this thread by @stevievzh

https://twitter.com/stevievzh/status/1635644559945506819

Nuance is crucial in this story and overall in general press coverage about human rights abuses in China. Especially those not deemed with national security importance in Beijing.

People with trans flags in their Twitter names defending reports of China using forced detransition and electro-shock therapy against trans youth in China is a perfect encapsulation of how wholly broken and deranged tankie brains have become. If you're trans and read the first hand accounts of young women who have been forcibly detained and detransitioned at private 'camps' and think 'reporting on this is the issue' then you are a broken broken person.

This reads like an ACLED infomercial, which makes sense when you look at the author affiliations.
ACLED's the best global conflict dataset. But it cant compare to detailed, research-led local datasets which are crucial for understanding conflict.
Excluding those is a disservice.

https://twitter.com/cliona_raleigh/status/1630127802992279552

I have no problem with ACLED. For a global dataset, it's great. Far and away the best event data at a global scale and I often use it. But it certainly has its issues. Bad data in (eg SOHR), bad data out. This trade-off might be necessary for more complete coverage, but it exists

🧵As a Sydneysider, it's an honour to have @SydWorldPride on Gadigal land (despite how dirty they did Taiwan).
In Australia, we have so many wonderful queer music acts. So to celebrate world pride I'll step out of my lane a bit & share some of my favourite artists in this thread! @SydWorldPride Starting with @St_South. Since their Inure EP came out it's been my absolute go-to album to listen to when I need to calm down. I know they're from Freemantle, but it gives me spot on summer afternoon on the South-Coast vibes. In a wonderful way.

Offering no comment on @SenatorThorpe or her protest. But the claims that she was blocking the AFP float are incorrect.

This was the QLife / @twenty10 inc. GLCS NSW float which immediately followed the AFP float in the parade.

https://twitter.com/SBSNews/status/1629610886636912641

@SenatorThorpe CC @AmyRemeikis @Leo_Puglisi6 @Rashidajourno @joshuabadge. Lidia can be seen in the video linked above confronting members of the AFP marching in the parade, but the truck she lays down in front of belongs to the float of an LGBTI support/advocacy group following the AFP float.

I thought Id see how ChatGPT would answer as the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson to real questions asked at the press briefings... Well this is how it went.
As a "foreign ministry spokesperson" ChatGPT refuses to be as undiplomatic and antagonistic as the real spokesperson. Note that I've code-edited the last screenshot to remove the transcript because it was too long to fit on a page, this is what was actually sent to ChatGPT