For those who follow my daily data update, I have a major adjustment I need to make in several states. 24 out of the 50 states are being reported exactly like Florida in terms of test numbers and positive %--which is DEAD WRONG (and inflates % positive).
I had no idea it was this big a deal, but it's a very big deal. Here's a thread on why it's a big deal:
Bottom line: @COVID19Tracking, and everyone who builds graphs off of it, use data for "new tests" that does not include anyone who has ever been tested before!
CO, ND, SD, and a ton of others--their percent testing positive are simply nowhere near as high as I've been reporting.
I don't have time right now, but I will add more to this later. I'm astonished that it's so many states. I thought just Florida was the odd man out. Nope. Not even a bit.
This will change a LOT of the data (and should change media reports on % positive dramatically).
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A few days ago, I stumbled upon an exchange between @michaelsfuhrer, @greg_travis, @karencutter4, @PienaarJm.
The crux is Greg’s claim of a sharp increase from 2022 to 2023 in 18-44yo deaths from disease in the US (his graphic below).
Greg is wrong.
Join me on a 12-pack 🧵
2/ It quickly became apparent that the main point of contention was whether including R99-coded deaths (“Other ill-defined and unspecified causes of mortality”) in Greg's definition of deaths from disease, as they are later re-coded to non-disease deaths.
3/ Oh, but not to worry. Greg states that "R99 itself is a tiny portion of overall deaths and generally resolves to <2,000 deaths a month overall (out of 300K deaths a month)."
Weekly #Covid19 update in my Substack newsletter, The Issue. Just click the link below.
I'll excerpt a few portions below, but the upshot is: steady rise in cases/% positive, lower rise in Hosps, even lower for ICUs, and continued decline in deaths. thelawyercraig.substack.com/p/covid-19-wee…
"Despite the rise in other metrics, deaths late last week dropped below 300 (7-day-average) for the first time since June/July 2021. ICU census is still well below pre-Omicron pandemic lows."
"Perhaps the best news right now is global Covid deaths. According to Our World in Data, global daily confirmed Covid-19 deaths (7DA) have dropped to 1,772. For comparison, . . . our lowest ever number globally was 4,436 before Omicron entered the picture."
I cannot overstate the absolute idiocy of touting this study purporting to show Omicron is just as likely to send someone to the hospital or the morgue as Delta.
There are 2 enormous issues with this study (among others, I'm sure).
2/ ISSUE #1: The authors use PCR positives as the case denominator and just assume that the "case-to-infection" ratio was similar between all 4 periods. Unbelievable.
The fact that a study can look at the data and just say this boggles my mind. Just read that green highlighting!
3/ Here were Massachusetts' peak positive testing percentages for the 4 different periods in the study (data = @CDCgov)
8.69% - Winter 20-21
2.62% - Spring 21 (sub-1% for 38 days!)
4.47% - "Delta" (per the study)
23.36% - "Omicron"
#Covid19 in South Africa...5th wave? Well, that depends on what metric you use to define wave.
Thread 🧵🧵🧵
2/ If you look at 7DA cases, it's a clear increase. It's a long way off from the OG Omicron peak (and not quite as vertical), but they're still up ~4x in barely over 2 weeks.
3/ But everywhere is testing a bit less these days, so what about % positive? Yep, even more vertical, and more closely resembles the prior waves.
Of course, these are all just tests/infections. Let's look at outcomes...
Down 91.5% from peak. Seeing a rise nationally from recent low of 2.13%. During the entire pandemic, was only lower in June 2021 than our recent numbers.