This professor is also pointing fault at our recent Xinjiang Data Project, but seems to be completely unable to comprehend that when you detain hundreds of thousands of people over a few months you run out of places to put them. Both these facilities were transformed into camps.
The Veteran's affair bureau used to look like the first picture. Nothing untowards here at all, and we would never claim that this picture showed a camp. In March 2018 authorities erected a tall concrete wall around the entire perimeter, put guard watchtowers on two corners...
... aded a highly securitised, two tiered entranceway (at the only gap in the 5m tall perimeter wall), with an extension of the guard post, and established heavily fenced areas to limit detainee's movements in the camp. You can see very clear fencing here, highlighted.
Photos leaked by activists - who were later disappeared - show similar fencing at a different facility in Xinjiang. Which do not look exactly normal for a veterans affairs office, especially considering all the new securitisation.
In early 2019, in line with a lot of similar low-security camps, many of these fences were removed as were the watchtowers, however the camp was not desecuritised as a number of similar fences remain, just slightly less pervasive.
It is also directly next door to a much less ambiguous detention facility, that @ChengxinPan also must have seen but made no mention of. That's not proof in and of itself, but we do know often detention camps are built in complexes of 2 or 3 (in this case 3) facilities.
Likewise, the bureau of business and industry shows an identical pattern of development, although it looked to be slightly earlier. First photo shows it before, second in Jan 2018, with watchtowers, heavy metal entrance gate, full external perimeter wall and internal fencing.
The fencing is a bit harder to see here because of the trees (and the fence's shadow is the main way that you can see it), but by looking at a number of other satellite pictures from 2018, this is my best bet at how the fencing was set up.
This facility also seems to have been more comprehensively desecuritised, with watchtowers removed, and all internal fencing and walls removed, along with the highly securitised gate. It may well be entirely decomissioned now, would need confirmation from the ground to know.
It still has a number of cars parked out front, which is generally suggestive of it still being in use, but because this was a camp jerryrigged out of a former government building, it may have reverted back to being the bureau of business and industry information.
As @ChengxinPan is a academic in Australia (albeit a Xinjiang denialist one) I would ask that he address these findings in his post trying to debunk our findings, or delete in entirely.
If you have any further questions, I'm happy to respond.
BONUS: He also says that these camps on the outskirts of Kashgar are just schools, nothing to see here. Luckily Chinese state media confirmed these two as camps!
By the way, @ChengxinPan is also mischaracterising our research, claiming we're calling a school that we have never said is a camp, a camp. The N school he highlights here & shows video from is a school. We have never claimed it wasn't. You even see kids playing on the oval.
A can put it down as a misunderstanding of our findings and not actually looking into the coordinates we provide, but I expect him to either amend his twitter thread or delete those claims, considering theyre not just wrong but mischaracterising our research.
He has also shared in that thread misinformation about another detention facility in our database. I have disproved that misinformation in this thread.
There's been some confusion here (maybe blame the XJ government for putting re-education camps so close to schools).
We say that there are two facilities in the orange block.
The seven tweets here are 'disproving' the school on the blue block as a camp
This camp in Kashgar should be our least contentious one. Dozens of journalists and diplomats have visited it, Chinese state media has acknowledged it as a camp. @KeirSimmons has literally stood in this camp (and been stopped from seeing the Southern facility).
I'm being told that because when you try to expand the picture attached to the point it shows part of the school (at no point suggest that it's a camp) we're basically saying it's a camp...
The expanded version of this photo has a pond. Do we need to prove the pond's not a camp?
Someone asked me what I meant by 'tiered entranceway', so Ill explain it here, looking again at that example from Turpan in the OP.
Originally the entranceway looked like this. simple roadblock gate, probably similar to what you see outside any school/govt building (Linxia, here)
Later they added extra layers of security to the entrance here you can see a new guard-post at the start of the driveway, a new car-roadblock to stop vehicle ramming, a much more substantial and tall main gate and a secondary gate behind it.
There are also new roadblocks on the road around the driveway, forcing cars to slow down and go around them, making it impossible for any car to drive up fast to the gate, and forcing them to follow the S pattern 'in red' before reaching the bollards and the gate.
You can actually see the darker road where cars have driven in that s pattern.
But basically I mean that instead of a single simple gate to get in, there are now layers and layers of security you need to get past before you get in, a level of securitisation you rarely see.
Certainly not in a government deparment for veteran's affairs.
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🧵Look towards the light.
As Rebel forces in Syria advanced across Syria & never stopped a key question was why the Regime evaporated. Syria by night provides some clues on how the Regime's social contract collapsed.
Read my analysis here
& read onaspistrategist.org.au/just-look-at-t…
There are three pillars to why the Regime collapsed so suddenly and drastically: 1. Complete lack of foreign firepower and air support 2. Increased professionalism and good governance in Opposition territory 3. Economic stagnation and the collapse of Assad's social contract.
I'm sure lots will be written on that first pillar, @azelin recently wrote a detailed and helpful article on the 2nd (warontherocks.com/2024/12/the-pa…), and @E_of_Justice's thread here is helpful too x.com/E_of_Justice/s…
I think the rest of the world just has to realise the US we thought we all knew probably just doesn't exist and hasn't for a while. We need to shift our assumptions and look at the US in the same way we look at India.
Harris didn't lose this race, and post mortems are useless. America made an informed and considered choice and picked the man they did. There's probably not much a reasonable democratic campaign could've done to change that. America saw Trump. And they liked him.
This also isn't a slight on India, it's a remarkable (and deeply flawed) country that we work with productively and well, it's just an entirely different ballgame (and sense of exceptionalism), and honestly the lens we will need to look at the States through imo.
🧵On May 17, fire swept through Rohingya neighbourhoods in Buthidaung.
Satellites show what burnt and when, and my new investigation reveals an arson campaign against 50-60 villages & demonstates who carried it out.
Through April and May, arson attacks burnt around 900 acres and over 10,000 homes across Buthidaung township in the most concerning and dangerous bout of sectarian and communal violence since the 2017 pogrom that expelled Rohingyas from much of northern Arakan state.
As flames rose above Buthidaung town on the night of May 17th, the activist community and eyewitnesses pointed the finger at the Arakan Army, an ultra-nationalist Ethnic Resistance Organisation rapidly capturing that part of Burma. Something the AA viciously denied.
🧵A very brief OSINT methods thread to share how I found the location of a Burmese junta camp that was captured by the resistance today, it's a method I've used a lot for more obscure unnamed places that would be nearly impossible to find otherwise.
Today news came out from a reputable local media source of a junta camp that was captured in Southern Myanmar, normally news in Burma is reported with the name of a nearby village or at least the township. But not here, only that it was in the KNLA's 4th Brigade 11th Battalion.
The KNLA's 4th Brigade operates in Tanintharyi Region, and google searching for info about the 11th battalion shows it is mainly active in Bokpyin township
But of course, finding one tower with a loose lead of maybe a township is going to be tricky.bnionline.net/en/news/killin…
I've started reading Our Enemies Will Vanish, a masterful book on the Ukraine War by @yarotrof. Highly recommend it. It contains heaps of tidbits and insights that even someone who followed the invasion closely (i'll count myself) had no idea of.
I'll share some threaded here.
@yarotrof (get your hands on the book if you possible can, the tidbits here are just the tip of the iceberg, truly recommend reading the whole thing).
Firstly, this account of a meeting between Bill Burns and Putin months before the invasion where Putin cited US' impotence post Afghanistan
@yarotrof And that Ukraine's military preparations on the heel of US intel warnings were so secret that even Washington had no idea about them (to prevent info going from GUR > DC > Kyiv > Russian Fifth Column)
I was wanting to check if this IDF graphic was an approximation or a measured/to-scale diagram, so by tracing the various video walkthroughs, I was able to make my own NOT TO SCALE map, suggesting it was a pretty accurate representation but missing some 'branches' explored since.
The most notable difference is a partially-blocked tunnel leading beyond where the walkthroughts turn left to go towards the spiral staircase. A seperate IDF video showed a 3rd entrance around 125m beyond that intersection, so I've assumed that's where it leads.
I've done my best geolocating that entrance by looking for a wide-ish street (with no road markings), that curves slightly to the right & goes downhill, and that has two visible small but distinct orange-roofed areas, along with some vegetation in a front yard. Decent match.