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Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
@Mij_Europe
Sep 27, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Good read by @pmdfoster & @FT. It's more UK Govt, less Bxl, that's questioning with whom @BorisJohnson will have his Varadkar moment. But @EmmanuelMacron clearly the favourite. Macron DOES think BJ is a man he can do business with; a deal maker. But 1/

ft.com/content/16e84a…
Many in French system worry that the Fr Pres is misreading the PM & overestimating, even exaggerating, his need for a deal. As others say & I agree, France will also be one of the tougher MS as we approach final round. It's unwilling to concede significantly on LPF or fish 2/
Partly bc it thinks UK is negotiating from position of weakness. Partly bc Govt believes it has less at stake from a no deal than some other more vulnerable member states, eg Belgium, Ireland, Germany & Netherlands 3/
Still, for Macron, Merkel or @vonderleyen to engage (Michel not seen as ally or credible in London) more progress is needed at technical level with @MichelBarnier & @DavidGHFrost. That's why next week is imp, esp Cab XS deliberations on Mon which cd sign off on concessions ENDS

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More from @Mij_Europe

Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Apr 25
.@EmmanuelMacron warned today that the European Union and the European model of civilisation could “die” unless steps were taken in the next 5 years to create a European “power” which protected itself from Russian military aggression & Chinese & American protectionism. Thread 1/
In a sweeping 2h speech at Sorbonne University in Paris, Macron called inter alia for a doubled EU budget and the scrapping of Brussels' rules on competition and trade to allow Europe to defend itself from foreign domination and seize the initiative on green industries and AI 2/
He called for EU countries to build a new common European defence strategy (within Nato and not a |“European army”) and repeated his suggestion that France’s nuclear deterrent could become part of the defence of Europe 3/
Read 19 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Apr 15
France finds itself in an uncomfortable bind in the confrontation between Israel and Iran – de facto involved on the Israeli side but having no influence on the actions of the Isaeli government 1/
France was one of three countries - with US & UK – which fired anti-missile missiles at Iranian missiles and drones as they flew towards Israel at the weekend 2/
Officially, these actions – revealed by the foreign minister @steph_sejourne on Sunday – were to protect French miliary bases in Jordan and Iraq. But France, in effect, took part in the conflict between the two states 3/
Read 11 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Mar 21
On Ukraine, @EmmanuelMacron has made a spectacular two-year journey from apparent dove to leading hawk. Why? French officials say the facts have changed and Macron has changed with them. Is that a full explanation? A VERY LONG historical thread... 1/
Since Feb 2022 the French President has evolved from would-be Putin intermediary to implacable Putin foe. From “Don’t humiliate Russia” (May/June 2022), he has shifted to “Russia must be defeated” (June 2023) & now “Don’t exclude sending western ground forces” (February 2024). 2/
The Elysée Palace insists that Macron has been consistent - in context. Here is an attempt to retrace his journey with my thoughts on how Macron’s thinking at each stage has changed and why. 3/
Read 36 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Mar 13
The French National Assembly last night overwhelmingly approved President Emmanuel Macron’s 10 year security pact with Ukraine – but lambasted his suggestion that French and other Nato troops might serve on Ukrainian soil. 1/
The lower house of the French parliament voted 372-99 to endorse a bilateral security pact with Kyiv signed last month. But Macron’s controversial boots-on-the-ground initiative (not part of the pact) was disowned by all opposition groups from far-right to far left. 2/
The debate was (intentionally) awkward for @MLP_officiel, who has a long record of pol/financial collaboration with Putin. How would she vote? In the end, the 88 Lepennist deputies abstained, saying they supported Kyiv but not parts of pact referring to Ukr joining EU/Nato. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Mar 11
A visit by @EmmanuelMacron to Ukraine, provisionally due this week, appears to have been delayed a second time following the Russian missile attack on Odessa  half a kilometre from the visiting Greek Prime Minister last Wednesday. 1/
The Macron visit was originally expected in mid-Feb but delayed until mid-March. After a telephone call last night between the French President and the Ukrainain President @ZelenskyyUa, the Elysée Palace said that Macron would go to Ukraine “in the next few weeks”. 2/
Earlier, French govt sources told La Tribune Dimanche that the Russian missile attack so close to the Greek PM had been seen by Macron’s people as “a message”. The newspaper said Paris now wanted to expand Macron’s visit to include other Nato leaders, inc possibly Rishi Sunak. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Mar 7
Macron today produced maps of a poss Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv or Odessa which could oblige the west to act to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. In talks w French opposition leaders, Macron said there should be no more “red lines” on Fr involvement in the conflict 1/
.@EmmanuelMacron summoned leaders of all French parliamentary parties to talks at the Elysée Palace to explain his controversial remarks last week in which he said the deployment of western troops in Ukraine should no longer be excluded 2/
Participants in the meeting said Macron had explained his theory of “strategic ambivalence” – keeping Moscow guessing. Since Vladimir Putin clearly knew no limits, he said, the West had been handing him an advantage by fixing or “interiorising” limits of its own /3
Read 10 tweets

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