Good read by @pmdfoster & @FT. It's more UK Govt, less Bxl, that's questioning with whom @BorisJohnson will have his Varadkar moment. But @EmmanuelMacron clearly the favourite. Macron DOES think BJ is a man he can do business with; a deal maker. But 1/
Many in French system worry that the Fr Pres is misreading the PM & overestimating, even exaggerating, his need for a deal. As others say & I agree, France will also be one of the tougher MS as we approach final round. It's unwilling to concede significantly on LPF or fish 2/
Partly bc it thinks UK is negotiating from position of weakness. Partly bc Govt believes it has less at stake from a no deal than some other more vulnerable member states, eg Belgium, Ireland, Germany & Netherlands 3/
Still, for Macron, Merkel or @vonderleyen to engage (Michel not seen as ally or credible in London) more progress is needed at technical level with @MichelBarnier & @DavidGHFrost. That's why next week is imp, esp Cab XS deliberations on Mon which cd sign off on concessions ENDS
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A few thoughts on the next @EU_Commission from here in Bxl. This is a realpolitik Commission: power under the next mandate will firmly rest with the EU's five largest member states - Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland - that will now do most of the running with VdL 1/
Poland's @Piotr_Serafin takes control of EU's powerful DG Budget - key as Bxl tries to reform EU finances away from redistribution to investment in bloc's geostrategic priorities. Tusk enjoys an open door in Bxl after his election result vs PiS. He's been rewarded accordingly 2/
Lots has been made over Breton's resignation & what that tells us about @EmmanuelMacron influence in EU. It's true that pol realities in Paris mean Fr hasn't been as vocal or able to push its priorities as aggressively as it owise would (eg muted response to Draghi report) 3/
Michel Barnier, the man the pro-Brexit press loved to hate could emerge today as the new French PM. According to Fr media, Barnier (73) will be “tested” by Macron today as an elder statesman who might be broadly acceptable to a majority in the much-splintered National Assembly 1/
The fate of the former EU Commissioner and Brexit negotiator will depend partly on Marine Le Pen. Two other strong candidates for PM, Bernard Cazeneuve (centre-left) and Xavier Bertrand (centre-right) fell by the wayside yesterday when Le Pen said her party would censure them 2/
‼️🇫🇷 France has today rejected government by the Far Right, but looks likely to face months of political chaos with a blocked parliament
Surprisingly, early projections suggest that the *Left alliance* might even pip the Far Right as the largest bloc in the new National Assembly
Here are @Ipsos projections by @mathieugallard
@Ipsos @mathieugallard In 2nd round of snap elections, early projections based on actual votes suggest Le Pen’s National Rally party won between 120 & 150 seats, far short of a majority (289) in Assembly. The four-party Left alliance was projected to win 180-215 seats & Macron's alliance 150-180 seats
Final polls before tomorrow’s 2nd round of potentially cataclysmic French elections suggest the Far Right will fall far short of an overall majority in the National Assembly. Can we trust the polls? They are either all right or all wrong 1/
Final surveys by four organisations before polls were banned at midnightgive the Far Right and allies a range between 170 and 215 seats – more than 80 short of an overall majority (289 seats) 2/
If the polls are right, the “Republican Front” – the withdrawal of over 200 third-placed Macron and Left-wing candidates to make Round 2 a straight fight with the Far Right – has been a huge success 3/
Quick thread for my non-UK followers on a few things to watch in today's 🇬🇧 election. Exit poll 10pm should tell us whether MRP polls suggesting Tory wipeout, or conventional polls suggesting a mere landslide, are right. Or whether both are wrong and it's a much closer thing 1/
What to look for in Exit poll? Reform share of vote - pollsters say anything over 12% will confirm they've damaged Tories in countless seats & massive Labour majority may happen. Lib Dem share of vote: mid-teens will confirm they have hit the Tories hard in south & south-west 2/
Timing of PM's concession. If Sunak phones Starmer in the early hours, we know the game is completely up. Moreover, will Sunak resign straight off tomorrow morning or will he say he's staying on until the Tories pick a new leader? 3/
‼️🇫🇷
Almost 26% of the French electorate had voted by midday in the first round of the potentially apocalyptic French elections today - suggesting very high turnout in the late 60's % by the time all the polls close tonight. 1/
Turnout is key to the outcome of this election – and not because there may be a late surge for one camp or another. All boats have risen with the tide so far. High turnout does mean, however, that any more third place candidates will survive into Round 2 next Sun. 2/
By the latest forecasts there could be as many as 250 three way “theoretical” three-way contests (a record) out of 577 next weekend. To qualify for R2 , you have to come first or second OR take 12.5% of the registered vote. The higher the turnout, the more candidates qualify. 3/