James Stephenson Profile picture
Sep 27, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I'd wager Steve's more or less right about "Project Roadrunner" (Tesla's ground-up rethink of how to make batteries better):

@elonmusk 's favorite airplane, the A-12 Archangel, carried zero defensive countermeasures because it flew so high, so fast, nothing could shoot it down.
That aircraft later developed into the SR-71 Blackbird, but the original designer, Clarence "Kelly" Johnson at Lockheed's Skunkworks, called it the A-12... so that's what Elon calls it.

He also says, "the best process is no process; the best part is no part."
The SR-71 Blackbird‘s strategy for evading danger was the same as mine is in my Tesla: punch it and watch the threat disappear in the rearview mirror. Image
As Elon put it on Automotive News Daily Drive in July:
(interviewer Jason Stein’s questions in *bold*)

“... I don’t really look at competitors. I’m just looking at: what are we doing to make our products better?” Image

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More from @ICannot_Enough

Jan 14
Hello, friends. I have updated my Tesla charts and quarterly earnings forecast through 2025 and will make some videos tomorrow and post them publicly over the next 10 days (subscribe if you want early access).

Let's see some pretty charts for the first 30 slides.

1/69 $TSLA Image
Tesla will break all previous production & delivery records in 2024, by a wide margin, as they've done for many years now.

... and then they'll do it again in 2025, and 2026, and 2027... 🚀

The growth story is really just getting started...

2/69 Image
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y.

Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).

3/69 Image
Read 71 tweets
Sep 11, 2023
Hello, friends. I have updated my Tesla charts and quarterly forecast through 2025 and will make a bunch of videos about what's changed (subscribe for early access).

Q3 may not break many records, because factory upgrades limited production, but Q4 probably will. 📈

1/69 $TSLA Image
Tesla will break all previous production & delivery records in 2023, by a wide margin, as they've done for many years now.

... and then they'll do it again next year, and the year after that, and the year after that... 🚀

The growth story is really just getting started...

2/69 Image
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y.

Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).

3/69 Image
Read 69 tweets
Jul 27, 2023
Now that Ford, GM, and Tesla have all reported their first half of 2023 earnings results, I have updated my charts comparing the trailing 12 months' actuals against each other and the prior 7 years.

Despite selling less than half as many vehicles:
🧵 $F $GM $TSLA Image
... and collecting barely more than half as much revenue: Image
... Tesla is earning more profit: 🤓
(GAAP Net Income) Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 17, 2023
I have updated my earnings forecast model and charts with the record production & deliveries already reported for Q2.

Here's a chart showing the deliveries by model and production location in my forecast model:

Tesla doesn't report actual deliveries by model and production… https://t.co/knGxjzdKjMtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…



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If you're used to seeing my forecast threads, this one's going to flow a bit differently.
I decided to lead off with the same 4 familiar delivery charts, but next I'm skipping straight to my EPS estimate and income statement forecast table, for those only interested in the… https://t.co/RyM8apPQu4twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

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Here's a chart of the Adjusted EBITDA I'm forecasting for Tesla alongside the history of this profit metric going back to 2018.

I don't have any robotaxi fare or autonomous robot revenue in my forecast, but I do assume that FSD Beta performance will gradually but steadily… https://t.co/0LqPuzeuODtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…



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Read 10 tweets
May 7, 2023
Here is my latest 69-tweet $TSLA forecast 🧵.

I will record a series of videos tomorrow discussing these charts and my detailed forecast model, making 1 video Public per day at youtube.com/jrs97t (my subscribers will have early access).

The growth story continues. 📈

1/69 Image
Earlier today, a notorious short seller claimed Tesla will never sell more than 400,000 vehicles in a quarter again... 🤣

Meanwhile, Tesla continues expanding global production of its S3XY lineup, and record deliveries will follow in 2023 and into the future.

2/69 Image
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y. Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).

3/69 Image
Read 69 tweets
Feb 20, 2023
I have updated my detailed Tesla earnings forecast model and charts, which I will share in this 69-tweet 🧵 and publish a series of videos on my YouTube channel, youtube.com/jrs97t with additional commentary.

Q1 will be tough, but plenty of growth will follow.

1/69 $TSLA Image
Tesla continues expanding global production of its S3XY lineup, and record deliveries will follow in 2023 and into the future.

2/69 Image
Tesla makes the 2 best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y.

Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which has ramped production past 3,000 vehicles per week at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).

3/69 Image
Read 69 tweets

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