Hello, friends. I have updated my Tesla charts and quarterly earnings forecast through 2025 and will make some videos tomorrow and post them publicly over the next 10 days (subscribe if you want early access).

Let's see some pretty charts for the first 30 slides.

1/69 $TSLA Tesla will break all previous production & delivery records in 2024, by a wide margin, as they've done for many years now.

... and then they'll do it again in 2025, and 2026, and 2027... 🚀

The growth story is really just getting started...

2/69

Hello, friends. I have updated my Tesla charts and quarterly forecast through 2025 and will make a bunch of videos about what's changed (subscribe for early access).

Q3 may not break many records, because factory upgrades limited production, but Q4 probably will. 📈

1/69 $TSLA Tesla will break all previous production & delivery records in 2023, by a wide margin, as they've done for many years now.

... and then they'll do it again next year, and the year after that, and the year after that... 🚀

The growth story is really just getting started...

2/69

Now that Ford, GM, and Tesla have all reported their first half of 2023 earnings results, I have updated my charts comparing the trailing 12 months' actuals against each other and the prior 7 years.

Despite selling less than half as many vehicles:
🧵 $F $GM $TSLA ... and collecting barely more than half as much revenue:

I have updated my earnings forecast model and charts with the record production & deliveries already reported for Q2.

Here's a chart showing the deliveries by model and production location in my forecast model:

Tesla doesn't report actual deliveries by model and production… https://t.co/knGxjzdKjMtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…






If you're used to seeing my forecast threads, this one's going to flow a bit differently.
I decided to lead off with the same 4 familiar delivery charts, but next I'm skipping straight to my EPS estimate and income statement forecast table, for those only interested in the… https://t.co/RyM8apPQu4twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Here is my latest 69-tweet $TSLA forecast 🧵.

I will record a series of videos tomorrow discussing these charts and my detailed forecast model, making 1 video Public per day at youtube.com/jrs97t (my subscribers will have early access).

The growth story continues. 📈

1/69 Earlier today, a notorious short seller claimed Tesla will never sell more than 400,000 vehicles in a quarter again... 🤣

Meanwhile, Tesla continues expanding global production of its S3XY lineup, and record deliveries will follow in 2023 and into the future.

2/69

I have updated my detailed Tesla earnings forecast model and charts, which I will share in this 69-tweet 🧵 and publish a series of videos on my YouTube channel, youtube.com/jrs97t with additional commentary.

Q1 will be tough, but plenty of growth will follow.

1/69 $TSLA Tesla continues expanding global production of its S3XY lineup, and record deliveries will follow in 2023 and into the future.

2/69

Who's ready for my first Tesla forecast of 2023? 🤓

Haters might guess that Tesla's recent deep price cuts would wreck any prospects for 2023 earnings growth...

I hate to disappoint them 🤣, but record quarterly deliveries *and earnings* are still coming in 2023. 📈

1/36 $TSLA Q3 & Q4 deliveries both missed analyst expectations due to Tesla winding down "the wave" of deliveries.

But the recent price cuts ensure that Tesla's S3XY deliveries will continue setting new quarterly records.

2/36

You know, in case you thought it was only them. 😏

$tsla The receipts:

Who's ready for some Tesla charts? 🤓

You may have heard there's a "demand cliff", "the growth story is over", and "competition is coming"... but $TSLAQ has believed all that for many years now. 🤣

I hate to disappoint them 🤣, but record deliveries are coming. 📈

1/36 $TSLA Q3 deliveries missed analyst expectations due to Tesla winding down "the wave" of deliveries.

I made a video explaining what that means here:

I expect that to continue in Q4, as Tesla has guided...

... but with record S3XY deliveries anyway.

2/36

Here is my latest Tesla earnings forecast. Anybody knocking their forecast way down as a result of numerous recent apparent headwinds may be in for a big earnings surprise.

After including those, my current Non-GAAP EPS forecast is $1.27. In August, it was $1.36. 👀

1/30 $TSLA Q3 deliveries missed many analyst expectations due to higher-than-typical ending inventory levels.

Tesla explained that this resulted from "ending the wave". I made videos explaining that here:

... and here:


2/30

I have updated my $TSLA forecast to include the 3:1 stock split that won't occur until Thursday. 🤓

Somebody had to go first getting you used to the new share prices/EPS, and it was me. 🤣

With a star-crossed Q2 behind us, expect record revenues and earnings ahead. 🧵

1/30 Shanghai lockdowns drove global S3XY deliveries lower in Q2, but I expect Tesla to report record-breaking quarterly delivery numbers every quarter into the foreseeable future.

2/30

Happy $TSLA Earnings Day, everyone.

I cleaned up that fresh chart I tweeted yesterday and added something I think will help people understand GAAP vs. Non-GAAP vs. Adjusted earnings.

No matter what numbers Tesla reports this afternoon, people (incl. reporters) will be confused. There's a longstanding battle over whether stock-based compensation expense should count against earnings or not.

Accountants say it should, and they determine the GAAP rules, so that's how companies have to report earnings.

Wall St. says it's non-cash, so they throw it out.

In response to this morning’s nearly hourlong Twitter outage, I have taken action, releasing additional liquidity from my own personal Strategic Reserve of $TSLA Twitter content on YouTube, swelling total publicly available backup content to >3 hours:

youtube.com/playlist?list=… For those unaware there even was a Twitter outage:

(I left the ads showing because I found some of them hilariously apropos)

I have updated my $TSLA forecast to include the actual production and delivery numbers for Q2.

The story is largely the same as I've been tweeting since April 12:

📉 Shanghai lockdowns reduce profitability sequentially in Q2

📈 Return to record growth in Q3

🧵/1 Giga Shanghai is Tesla's most profitable factory, and the divot clearly visible in total Q2 deliveries is caused by the local government lockdown impacts limiting their Model 3 & Y production in late April through June.

This mix impact is unfavorable to Q2 profit metrics.

/2

Q3 has just begun and $TSLA stock remains on sale (see red arrow indicator on 52-week range bar chart).

Some Tesla stockholders blame “Elon Musk’s antics” for the low stock price.

Rather than try convincing them they’re wrong, I’ll explain why they’re not going far enough! 😏🧵 Take a look at Amazon‘s chart:

It must be trading near 52 week lows because Elon is constantly battling with fellow rocket billionaire Jeff Bezos!

For anyone interested, a live Nio event is starting now:
(With English subtitles) nio.com Nio has announced a new 5-passenger luxury performance SUV: the ES7.

With a 75 kWh battery pack, a full suite of sensor hardware for future autonomy, recessed door handles, and a 0-60 time of 3.9 seconds, it looks like a Tesla Model Y Performance competitor.

Far fewer investors are shorting $TSLA now (compared to years past).

Per @ihors3 ‘s tweet yesterday, only about 3% of Tesla shares are still being shorted.

https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1536446026214694915

What are the remaining $TSLAQ short sellers thinking?? 😏

They think $TSLA is a better short now than when it was at $1,200 🤔 and should be trading at a *single-digit PE ratio* to this year’s earnings (despite growing EPS at more than 100% year-over-year). 🤣

Here’s a sample:

For those asking for my opinion on Brianna Wu’s thread, she blocked me so that I can’t comment or retweet directly, but for others she has blocked, Ben was kind enough to provide screenshots below:

Brianna seems blinded by rage and clearly doesn’t know what she’s talking about.

https://twitter.com/tryweirder/status/1528748976140193795

Brianna’s first claim is that the growth of Tesla’s stock price has never been based on car sales.

Here’s a chart of Tesla’s quarterly revenue (which is mostly car sales):

public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

Looks like it’s been growing to me. 🤷‍♂️ Those are actuals, not my forecast.

Top 10 Twitter Impersonator Attempts (all suspended):
(a short 🧵)

#1 @LCannot_Enough
(imagine it with a lower case L) 🤌

#2 @iCannot__Enough
(how many people count underscores? Well played.) 💯

#3 @icanot_enough
(speling is dificult) 🤓 #4 @icennot_enough
(that’s an A impersonation) 😇

#5 @iannot_enough
(I c what you did there) 🤠

#6 @icannot_enouh
(gee, what’s missing?) 😏

#7 @Cannot_Enough
(where am I?) 😉

One year ago today:

(and congratulations to those who repossessed $TSLA shares today from paper-handed nincompoops below $650)

https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1395487498797735939

It would be easy to look at a chart in a stock app (like the one below) and fret, “wow, $TSLA only up 11% over the last year.”

A cursory examination of the tweet above shows that it was nearly 20% *if you go back one additional day*. 👀

If anyone’s looking for an investment with a high likelihood of doubling in under 12 months, $TSLA is significantly oversold right now, amidst a macro market meltdown over inflation and interest rates.

A double from the pre-market price would still be less than $1.5T market cap. Quick: think of 3 automakers you would research before buying an EV. Do that now.

Was Tesla one of them? Did you have a hard time thinking of 2 more?

You’re not alone. Most people will think how you thought, explaining the (in some cases) years-long backlog of Tesla orders.