Richard Haber part 1: Notes
Weekend learning with @RichardMoglen
Click & stick
Bill was the ultimate teacher
Stay +ve & follow the rules
Don't keep being right or wrong
Keep ego out of the process
Books: 1. Trading in the zone:Mark Douglas
Link:
2/
Your last trade has 0 correction with ur next trade.
Cutting ur loses early. 2. Reminiscences of stock operator 3. The Alchemist 4. Darvas 5. Stan Weinstein
Lessons learnt: 1. Watch the leaders:
Health & breadth of leadership
How healthy leadership look loke
3/
At what stages of the market
Rotation going in: super defensive, flight to safety
Something that is related to bull market
How many stocks could fall apart
Nothing to buy: something is wrong
2. Going back and looking wht u have done right or wrong.
4/
If CANLSIM doesn't work, u r doing it wrong.
Lowest risk-highest reward possible: optimal entry.
Keep track of leaders of leading group.
Alerts for pivot point & early points.
Sneak in early: 1. 2 hrs gone & vols r >148% 2. Stock approaching pivot
5/
3. Not whole lot of resistance 4. Great vols 5. Group is good 6. Market smooth
Catch it !
Take Bill's system and make it your own.
****The end****
Name correction: Its Ross Haber ! @RichardMoglen interviewed him.
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A lot of distribution days piled up in a short time recently. Pattern: Inverted Flag. A close below 17613 with above avg vols wud confirm a downtrend and the start of panic selling. Rather one can say it's at a major support zone.
NSESMLCAP: At a major junction. 2 weeks to decide
Important key: Major winners of the Covid rally are either in STAGE 3 or entered STAGE 4. Major tops are seen in many past winners, more tops coming soon. The next 2 weeks are very crucial. AUTO & INFRA to stand out in strength.
NIFTYAUTO: Some scope here. Many auto stocks are setup strong with major earnings this week.
Not listening to the market is a flaw
Listening to people, watching TV: Bad habits
Stage Analysis: Break the market into 4 stages. 1. STAGE 1 2. STAGE 2 3. STAGE 3 4. STAGE 4
2/n
Sometimes the simplest system is the best system.
Ideal buy point is when stock comes out of stage 1 & enters stage 2
Stage analysis works completely against the normal market participants
Psychology=Inverse(What needs to b done in the market)
Stages are determined wrto KMA
3/n
B.O. sud b accompanied wit vols
Establish position from stage 1 B.O and retest.
Look for stocks with no upward resistances
Bigger the stage 1 base the better
The sector is important: can dramatically improve returns
Check for 2 years of resistance.
TSLA, 2019(6 yrs base).
FAZE3: Real Round Cup & Base formation at the peak.
Outlook: AR2021
By Rule of 72:
At 18%, The Income wud double in 4 years.
The Income growth seems conservative.
Fundoos:
~Highest ever Quarterly revenues since inception.
~Topline & Bottomline Acceleration
~Seems to be a breakout in Earnings in the last 3 years.
~Being a small player seems to take the Margins hit.
Two things I have seen yesterday but not quantified yet.
1. Most of the NIFTY50 or biggies r below 50dma and looking to kiss 200dma.
But, the Index is hanging above 50dma for some strange reasons.
2.
Internally the stocks falling below 50dma in the whole universe has widened
There wud b tons of breakouts reversals to be seen.
Some choosy sectors/names would run.
Most good to great results r discounted specially in IT & PHARMA.Textiles stocks r giving fab results & the moves r discounting the earnings breakout above multi-year average.
Lastly, I am seeing vintage stocks or stocks with long bases which I have been tracking for long Breaking out now.
Case: TEJASNET
It has been in key list for way too long. Last 4-5 days r continuous circuits and cleared the trigger point convincingly.