Market Insights: 04.11.21

4 WDDC: 6
5 WDDC: 6

A lot of distribution days piled up in a short time recently. Pattern: Inverted Flag. A close below 17613 with above avg vols wud confirm a downtrend and the start of panic selling. Rather one can say it's at a major support zone. NSESMLCAP: At a major junction. 2 weeks to decide

Important key: Major winners of the Covid rally are either in STAGE 3 or entered STAGE 4. Major tops are seen in many past winners, more tops coming soon. The next 2 weeks are very crucial. AUTO & INFRA to stand out in strength.

Weekend Learnings: Stage Analysis & Stan Theory.

Not listening to the market is a flaw
Listening to people, watching TV: Bad habits

Stage Analysis: Break the market into 4 stages.
1. STAGE 1
2. STAGE 2
3. STAGE 3
4. STAGE 4 2/n

Sometimes the simplest system is the best system.
Ideal buy point is when stock comes out of stage 1 & enters stage 2
Stage analysis works completely against the normal market participants
Psychology=Inverse(What needs to b done in the market)
Stages are determined wrto KMA

Fun Facts: This Thread would contain some interesting details around sunrise sectors and a few research around potential/vibrant sectors.

1/n WATER 2/n

WATER

FAZE3: Real Round Cup & Base formation at the peak. Outlook: AR2021

By Rule of 72:
At 18%, The Income wud double in 4 years.
The Income growth seems conservative.

Some Interesting Charts:

1. WABAG: Flat Base, VCP 3T 2. SOLARINDS: Flat Base.

Two things I have seen yesterday but not quantified yet.

1.
Most of the NIFTY50 or biggies r below 50dma and looking to kiss 200dma.

But, the Index is hanging above 50dma for some strange reasons.

2.
Internally the stocks falling below 50dma in the whole universe has widened There wud b tons of breakouts reversals to be seen.

Some choosy sectors/names would run.

Most good to great results r discounted specially in IT & PHARMA.Textiles stocks r giving fab results & the moves r discounting the earnings breakout above multi-year average.

Weekend Learnings: Quit day trading! Focus on price, volume, and daily charts.

WON changed thousands of lives
Foundation should be EDUCATION
2 WEEKS before crash of 1987: Hit multiple stocks and saved out of the crash
When stocks are not working, don't buy full-on: Golden Nugget Sometimes failure is not an option
Take Care of Yourself!
Approach the stock market seriously, make it fun but it's a business.
Don't let it kill you
Limit Risk
I believe in what I see & not in what I believe: Dave Landry
Focus on what's happening and not what u think sud happen

Weekend Learnings: CANSLIM in depth. Read: How To Make Money in Stocks(HTMMIS) By William O Neil

Weekend Learnings: VCP winning Characteristics

Relatively recent IPO
Early bases: gives long runway ahead
Beware of price running to the pivot point: prone to failure
Vols start to dry up: Reducing Supply
High RS: Best in the market
Triple digits earnings growth: high growth. QOQ fund ownership increase: Beeline
High quality funds: Strong Research
Very strong Industry group <40
Big estimates: Future earnings
Acceleration in SALES-EARNINGS-ATM
Round nos pose psychological resistance. E.g. 100, 200, 500, 1000 etc.

Weekend Learnings: Mental Toughness

Trading is an 80% Mindset for people who r looking to put superior returns
Excellence=Consistency
Consistently +ve across years
Best in the business: 2x of market returns For Superior returns:
1. Concentration: Lot of people have trouble in this step
FOMO: people buy wht they see are running
2.Stock Picking: 90% of traders fails
They pick shity stocks.
3. Mental Toughness: Ride those winners-Pick new winners
Have mental fortitude to hold to winner

Weekend Tweetstorm: Rules.

life of a trader:
2-step formula:
1. Create rules/achieve consistency
2. Compound gains

1-5-7 yrs, for some people, it cud be short
It cannot b just that u perform straight away
Create Rules: Ur agreement with the mkt
allows u to take proper decisions Tame ur emotions
Build consistently good habits
performance is a byproduct of ur habits
U can't skip the consistency phase
In consistency phase:
->routine
->habits
->lifestyle
performance is not the goal
develop emotions to see mkts rationally.

Tweetstorm: Weekend Learning

Having a growth mindset.

Covid-19: people went broke-people also saved much
spending would be unleashed
supercycle coming
Innovation cycle of digital revolution
U r the architect of ur own life
TML: True Market Leader
How many TML's are extended? Concern: short term excesses
long term: super-cycle
Economic boom-secular supercycle-FED-people wanna spend.
Short term super volatile pullback~f(rapid ascend)
Currently, there is institutional adaption is high in Bitcoin

Tweetstorm: Weekend learning

Make trading strategies ur own.

We r in the interpretation business rather than a prediction business.
Rule: not to sell based on fear of losing profits.
Look for psychological indicators, put-call ratio etc.
Its just competition vs ourselves. Your eyes wud b walking through the patterns after ur big practice for time.
Know the character of the stock.
No matter how great the fundamentals if the stock if its not forming setups it just doesn't matter. If u wanna look for character, look at the left.

Tweetstorm: Weekend learning

How to protect profits by being a risk first trader ?

Look at the watchlist candidates and analyse how many are above 50dma.

Progressive exposure: u scale up when markets and stocks r doing right.
When things get wedged up, u get few flushes. U have to learn everything to be able to do by urself.
Importance of mistakes and learning from them.
People have bad habits. They want to be how great traders are but, don't do they don wht they do. Remove bad habits.

Tweetstorm: weekend learning

The art of managing winning stocks

Have plan to reduce on weakness
Best companies wan to up.
Best stocks can't avoid indexes
Market always fool u
Focus on wht u own and wht u wish to own.
Don't try to read too much into markets. As vaccine goes out, more traditional companies getting into limelight.

Great trades don't require predictions.
U just have to see it and take action.

-->>Have a consistent routine:
-> weekend study
-> all fishing on weekends
-> u have full weekly bar
-> Sunday afternoon

Repeating the same mistake is self sabotage.

By monitoring ur mistakes & continuing to work on urself u can minimise their impacts.

Key to generate above avg profits. Your reality is shaped by your beliefs.

Market Snapshot: 18.11.2020

4WDDC: 0
5WDDC: 0 Chart:

So, the setting is as follows currently: I got an interesting stock chart in just 18 secs.

NDP: Near Darvas pivot FSL: VCP 3T

IPO Base: Oriental Aromatics (OAL) Matrix: F&F

MIDCAP 50: All set. End of the downtrend nearing. Just 1-2 weeks away. Key level marked. Monthly:

I created a tool and launched this weekend amongst the investor/trader community, particularly in a small group. This is intended to bring my terminal nearer to a layman who doesn't understand much of trading zingers. Sharing some of the snapshots from the sector analysis part. 01.10.2020