Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Atomsk's Sanakan Profile picture
@AtomsksSanakan
Sep 27, 2020 • 8 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
1/C

The infection fatality rate (IFR) states what proportion of people infected with the virus SARS-CoV-2 die of the disease COVID-19.

Many COVID-19 contrarians abuse IFR estimates from the USA's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

So let's discuss those estimates. Image
2/C

For context:

Seasonal flu's IFR is <0.1%:


If 100 million people (less than 1/3 of the USA's pop.) get infected at an average IFR of 1%, that means 1 million COVID-19 deaths.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…


medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
3/C

Round 1:

The CDC initially gave an IFR of 0.26%.

They gave no evidence for this, and their estimate was below that of published research.

So experts were annoyed:




usatoday.com/story/news/fac…

npr.org/sections/healt… Image
4/C

Round 2:

The CDC updates their IFR from 0.26% to 0.65%.

That makes a bit more sense, but is still an under-estimate, as noted by the source the CDC relied on.
The actual value was closer to 1%:




archive.is/w2xC7#selectio… Image
5/C

Round 3:

The CDC now gives IFRs for specific age-ranges.

This implies a higher IFR of ~0.72%:


But the CDC again under-estimates IFR, since they leave out those aged 80 and above:


archive.is/UWGms#selectio… Image
6/C

Some take-home lessons so far, on the CDC and IFR:

1) They persistently under-estimate IFR.
2) Their IFR estimate increased, undermining COVID-19 contrarians who cited the CDC.
3) COVID-19 is dangerous, even on the CDC's under-estimated IFR.

sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
7/C

And for those who want IFRs for regions of the USA to compare to the CDC's (under-estimated) implied value of ~0.72%:






USA values circled in red:
medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
8/C

The CDC's age-specific IFR from part 5/C is similar to the age-specific IFR used in March by Neil Ferguson's Imperial College team.

So in citing the CDC, COVID-19 contrarians implicitly affirm Ferguson was right. 🙂



spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/1004… Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Atomsk's Sanakan

Atomsk's Sanakan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AtomsksSanakan

Atomsk's Sanakan Profile picture
Feb 23
71/J

I recently got a copy of Dr. Judith Curry's book without buying it myself.

Looking over it confirmed to me that it's largely misinformation.

I'll illustrate that by assessing its claims on COVID-19.



"11.3.1 COVID-19"

amazon.com/Climate-Uncert…
Image
72/J

To reiterate: Curry draws parallels between COVID-19 + climate change.

But some of the sources she cites suggest an ideologically convenient narrative misinformed her.

That becomes clearer when assessing her claims.




Image
73/J

No mention of the misinformation she + other contrarians promoted, and which conflicted with knowledge advances by experts.

(8/J - 12/J, 32J - 36/J, 44/J, 45/J, 63/J, etc.)








Image
Read 31 tweets
Atomsk's Sanakan Profile picture
Feb 17
1/J

Dr. Judith Curry recommends people read at least the 45-page preview of her new book.

I did.

It's bad enough I wouldn't recommend buying the book.
It's largely contrarian conspiracist misinformation.




amazon.com/Climate-Uncert…
Image
2/J

Many reviews laud the book without addressing whether her claims are accurate, likely because she ways what they want to hear.











netzerowatch.com/all-news/book-…
washingtontimes.com/news/2023/aug/…
Image
3/J

So I'll address the substance of her claims, with direct quotes of what she said.

That approach exposes her implausible position












realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/…
Image
Read 72 tweets
Atomsk's Sanakan Profile picture
Aug 30, 2023
PapersOfTheDay

"Executive Summary to the Royal Society report “COVID-19: examining the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions”"


"Effectiveness of face masks for reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2: [...]"
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rs…
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rs…



Image
Jefferson + Heneghan don't like the papers.

Makes sense they wouldn't given their track record, especially Jefferson on the Cochrane mask review he led.







brownstone.org/articles/royal…



cochrane.org/news/statement…
Image
Read 5 tweets
Atomsk's Sanakan Profile picture
Mar 13, 2023
69/E

A reminder, since there's a resurgence in Musk + right-wing politicians trying to score political points by saying they want Fauci prosecuted:

Musk's dislike of Fauci drove him to post an easily debunked lie (57/E, 56/, 41/)


Image
70/E

Still no apology from Musk for falsely smearing Grady based on untrue things he was told, or that he made up.

"Elon Musk calls British diver in Thai cave rescue 'pedo' in baseless attack"
theguardian.com/technology/201…



thedailybeast.com/elon-musk-mock… Image
71/E

Another good example of the willful ignorance + baseless paranoia underlying Musk's lab leak conspiracism and his criticisms of Fauci.




archive.is/GZ6er#selectio…
archive.is/ughZK#selectio…
archive.is/WWKtc#selectio… ImageImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Atomsk's Sanakan Profile picture
Dec 12, 2022
1/E

Some illustrations of the pseudoskepticism that overtakes many crypto / tech bros, using the example of Elon Musk's COVID-19 claims.

"My pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci"


onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11… Image
2/E

No, neither chloroquine nor hydroxychloroquine worked for SARS-CoV-2.

Fortunately, Fauci recommended neither in March 2020.

9:12 - 14:41 :



Image
3/E

About Sweden...

18 October 2020:
"Sweden at zero deaths Oct 15"


30 October 2020:
"And … Sweden is still right with zero deaths Oct 29"




ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…

worldometers.info/coronavirus/co… Image
Read 29 tweets
Atomsk's Sanakan Profile picture
Jun 8, 2022
1/B

Thread on a myth Jay Bhattacharya (@DrJBhattacharya) continues to peddle to undermine confidence in public health agencies and to suit his policy agenda.

The myth may undermine responses to future public health emergencies.




stanfordreview.org/the-review-int…
Image
2/B

Some background:

The infection fatality rate (IFR) states the proportion of *SARS-CoV-2-infected* people who die of the disease COVID-19.

The case fatality rate (CFR) states the proportion of *reported cases* who die of COVID-19.

institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an…
Image
3/B

Reporting systems are not perfect, so they sometimes miss infected people. That makes reported cases less than total infections, and thus CFR is higher than IFR.

The WHO was open about this since the early stages of the pandemic:

March 17, 2020:
web.archive.org/web/2020102205…
Image
Read 26 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(