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Ron Butler Profile picture
@ronmortgageguy
Sep 27, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Some Things Are Simple

I have been Blocking folks lately over a general opposition to simple Covid measures

Anti Maskers, sorry, its the most minor inconvenience, you all put clothes on when you leave the house but the law in Ontario is that only shorts mandatory so?

2/
Really just Social Niceties and the mask is so easy, please just give anti masking a rest

If fun is made of the insanity of Trump holding huge rallies with unmasked participants who needs 25 replies about outside is fine and look at the BLM marches

Sweet Jaysus,

3/
Can't we just agree a political rally is not the same as desperately trying to put an end to senseless murder?

Or Strip Bars must stay open?

Or booze must be served till 2:00 AM or rights are being violated?

Hosting 30 people in a home is required?

4/
There will be a vaccine sometime in 2021

Can't we just set aside arguing about foolishness for another 12 or 14 months

Let's just focus on safe ways of keeping businesses open, keeping people working on some basis and keeping kids learning safely and not the petty stuff

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Ron Butler Profile picture
Jul 7
Is It Getting To Be A Good Time To Buy A House? Because We Are Starting To Hear That Alot

RBC published a study suggesting the best Housing "affordability" in 3 years

Real Estate analysts point out Homes in expensive markets are down in price

And it's true, prices are down

2/
But in some regions prices are down from a peak price moment that was the highest in the history of Canada

Some house prices went up 30% in 2021

Are prices down from Peak Crazy: Yes

The bizarre nexus of 1.69% Mortgage Rates & Batshit Crazy FOMO

Yeah, down from there

3/
And mortgage rates which soared from 1.69% to 6.79% - 7.09% in 2022 - 2023 are down to the low 4% range

House prices & mortgage rates down from totally insane levels

That's technically more affordable than apex house prices at 7% mortgage rates

Will home sales take off?

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Jul 3
Microsoft Terminates Another 10K Employees Will AI Decimate White Collar Jobs?

Yeah, it will

Why does a MortgageGuy keep posting about this?

Because Unemployment is the by far the biggest influence on Mortgage Default

And Canada has EXTRA trouble on this issue

2/
Because unlike the USA who is on a mission to restore Blue Collar Manufacturing Jobs through Trump's Tariff program Canada is watching Manufacturing Jobs dissappear

If the USA is determined to destroy Canada's Manufacturing capacity & AI is set to gut White Collar Jobs

3/
Where the hell does that leave Canada?

Hey, I know what the Government line is: We are here to protect Canadian Workers

And Blah, Blah, Blah

Government's idea of protection is beefing up Unemployment Financial Support

Which is fine but Short Term

Let's think about it

4/
Read 7 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Jul 2
Bank Blanket Appraisal On New Construction Condo Says It's Worth The 2020 Purchase Price: Every Other Appraisal Says Its Worth 25% To 30% LESS

WTF is going on here?

Let me explain how this stuff works

Hi-Rise Condos take 4 to 6 years to build

Today that's a problem

2/
Because in 2020 some people bought Dog Crate Condos at insane prices, also in 2021 & part of 2022

550 sqft Condos for around $1M, it was a crazy price even back then but now thousands of those sized units are being offered for at $675K - $700K

But it's a firm contract

3/
The 2020 Buyers who gave 20% deposits may want to back out & run but they know they will be sued by the Developers

When they look for a mortgage the have to have an appraisal done & 99% of the time the Independent Appraiser says the $1M purchase price is only worth $700K

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Jun 19
AI Will Destroy Jobs: It's Coming Faster Than I Thought

As an old guy I am wrong person to comment on AI but I just encountered it in Mortgage Brokerage role that knocked me over

In the mortgage business we talk to people

Pure Digital Mortgages are just 4% of originations

2/
Only Licensed Mortgage Brokers can discuss rates, terms & mortgage products with the public but others can schedule calls, request documents, & deal with service calls

For the last year our company has been shown AI models to address these functions

They were OK but clumsy

3/
But this week BOOM: an AI Voice Assistant that's BETTER than people

- Perfect speaking voice
- Answers any question
- No lag on responding
- Gets a joke
- Funny when it should be
- Sounds confident & upbeat

I was blown away, its such a massive leap forward over the past

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Jun 16
Single Family Real Estate: Heartbreak & Losses Or Will It Snap Back Quickly?

In Ontario & BC we understand the Condo Crash but what's happening with Detached, Semi's & Towns?

In some regions very bad news but what's the final outcome?

Let's be clear: other places are fine

2/
Quebec Real Estate good: sales up prices up, Alberta steady, some slight cracks on pricing emerging but nothing serious

Atlantic fine, Saskatchewan busy, Manitoba fine

But Ontario & BC: Ultra-Slow Sales volume & prices starting to sag

Old sins are coming to the surface

3/
The regions where home prices took a 25%, 30% or 40% price surge in 2021 & 2022 are clearly feeling the pressure today

The Fraser Valley in BC, the distant 905 at far reaches of the GTA, small cities in Ontario, Cottage Country

All of these increases were just nuts

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Jun 10
First Time Home Buyers Getting Older & Guess What: Need Parents Help!

CMHC Reports confirm something we knew: in BC & Ontario, even older, higher income FTHBs often need Parental Help

The Feudal System is COMING BACK

The Medieval System of land rich families is reborn

2/
People talk about Boomer wealth transfer, it's happening before our eyes, even Gen X parents helping their kids with Down Payment Gifts

Or in a more dangerous move: Co-signers on Mortgages

Does Canada want to return to this Feudal System?

Doesn't matter, it's happening

3/
Some might say: No Big Deal Ron, parents should be able to help there kids buy a house

Okay, but consider this:

- 30 years ago gifts were a rare occurrence with no big money involved

- 30 years ago saving 5% down payment & qualifying for a mortgage was very achievable

4/
Read 6 tweets

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