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Judd Legum Profile picture
@JuddLegum
Sep 27, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
1. There is so much emphasis by Biden and outside groups on courting disaffected Republicans

There was an entire day of the Democratic National Convention devoted to it

But there is really no evidence that the appeal is working

REPUBLICANS REALLY LIKE TRUMP

Let's review
2. The national NYT poll out today shows that Biden is currently attracting 6 PERCENT of Republican voters.

That's similar to the 4% of Democrats who support Trump.

And less than the 8% of Republicans who supported Clinton in 2015, according to exit polls
3. There are a few high-profile Republicans on Twitter who don't like Trump, but they are not at all representative of Republicans as a whole.

The same NYT poll finds that 93% of Republicans approve of Trump

That's after tens of millions of people lost their jobs and 200K died
4. The idea that "Republicans of principles" will abandon Trump is a fantasy.

If what's happened over the last 3+ years wasn't enough to persuade a significant portion of Republicans to support Biden what is going to happen in the next 45 days?
5. To everyone responding that there are much fewer Republicans today, that is not backed up by the data.

Gallup found 27% of voters identified as Republican in November 2016.

Today? 29%

news.gallup.com/poll/15370/par…

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More from @JuddLegum

Judd Legum Profile picture
Sep 25
Topics Florida sex ed teachers can no longer cover:

1. Contraception
2. Consent
3. Abuse
4. "Different kinds of sex"
5. Domestic violence
6. Fluids
7. Gender identity

This is all due to a new law pushed by DeSantis to "emphasize abstinence"

🧵
2. A Florida Department of Education spokesperson defended the new restrictions: “A state government should not be emphasizing or encouraging sexual activity among children or minors and is therefore right to emphasize abstinence.”

popular.info/p/florida-bans…
3. In May 2023, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) signed a law, HB 1069, that requires schools to “teach abstinence from sexual activity outside of marriage as the expected standard for all school-age students.” The law requires that “all materials used to teach reproductive health” be approved by the Florida Department of Education, or for schools to use textbooks that are pre-approved by the state.
Read 8 tweets
Judd Legum Profile picture
Sep 24
EXCLUSIVE: The Trump campaign is still being hacked

Email communications from individuals associated with the Trump campaign have been hacked by malign actors within the last ten days, Popular Information has confirmed.

Follow this thread for details.

🧵
2. On September 18, I was sent a message from "Robert," which contained the cover page of a dossier on JD Vance

Robert refused to identify himself except to suggest he was the same person who sent stolen Trump campaign materials to other outlets

popular.info/p/trump-campai…
3. Robert eventually sent me the full 271-page dossiers on Vance, a 382-page dossier on Gov. Doug Burgum, and a 550-page dossier on Sen. Marco Rubio.

Robert boasted that he had "a lot" of other Trump campaign materials.
Read 20 tweets
Judd Legum Profile picture
Sep 23
1. Major corporations — including @doordash, @google, @walmart, @cvs, and @microsoft — have bankrolled an ongoing multi-million dollar effort to elect @markrobinsonNC the next governor of North Carolina

Follow this thread for details

🧵
2. Even before securing the Republican nomination for Governor of North Carolina in March, @MarkRobinsonNC had a long and well-documented record of promoting conspiracy theories, maligning LGBTQ people, using anti-Semitic tropes, and demeaning women. Image
3. None of this prevented the Republican Governors Association (@GOPGovs) from throwing its support behind Robinson.

In a post on X on March 5, the day Robinson won the Republican nomination, RGA chairman Governor Bill Lee (R-TN) congratulated Robinson and said the organization "look[s] forward to supporting him in the general election."Image
Read 15 tweets
Judd Legum Profile picture
Sep 19
1. A new IPSOS poll asked voters if they “support the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.”

The results may tell us more about the failure of the media and others to educate citizens on what Trump’s plan for mass deportation would entail.

Let's talk FACTS

🧵 Image
2. The scale required to orchestrate Trump’s proposed policy, deporting 11 million+ people, is way beyond the capacity of ICE.

Trump’s solution is to use local law enforcement.

That means local police would be doing little else, making communities less safe and causing migrants, fearing deportation, to be less willing "to report crimes or cooperate with police.”
3. ICE deported 142,580 non-citizens from the U.S. in 2023. Its budget for removals and transportation last year was over $420 million, meaning that it cost nearly $3,000 to remove each person from the country.

If Trump deported the 11 million non-citizens currently in the U.S., it would cost $33 billion just to transport people out of the U.S. — more than triple ICE’s total budget in 2023.

But the cost of actually moving a person off U.S. soil is only one part of the equation. It also costs ICE money to track people down and keep them in custody before their deportation. NBC reported that ICE currently has about 40,000 beds in detention centers which each cost $57,378 a year to maintain. If Trump enacted his mass deportation plan of 11 million people, ICE would need to expand its detention capacity drastically.
Read 10 tweets
Judd Legum Profile picture
Sep 19
1. A little-noticed report by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office released this month reveals why, for many Americans, the economy is broken.

Follow this thread for details.

🧵
2. The report focuses on the American economy from 2019 to 2021.

That period included a massive economic disruption due to the pandemic and a recovery as the economy reopened.

The report reveals that the economic impact of the pandemic was concentrated among the bottom 20% of earners.

That group saw a significant decrease in labor income in 2020, which did not rebound as the economy reopened in 2021.
3. The middle 60% of earners largely treaded water between 2019 and 2021 with little change to labor income or realized capital gains (which is the income generated from the sale of stock or other investments).

Over the same three years, however, the top 20% of earners saw increased labor income and a dramatic increase in realized capital gains.Image
Read 13 tweets
Judd Legum Profile picture
Sep 17
1. @megynkelly owes @taylorswift13 an apology

This isn't a matter of politics

Kelly has repeatedly trashed Swift based on FACTUAL CLAIMS that are OBJECTIVELY FALSE

Follow this thread for the truth

🧵 Image
2. On September 10, Taylor Swift endorsed the Harris/Walz ticket in an Instagram post. Swift said she "was so heartened and impressed by her selection of running mate @timwalz, who has been standing up for LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body for decades."

Kelly was ENRAGEDImage
@timwalz 3. @megynkelly has repeatedly claimed that a law signed by Walz in 2023 "take custody of the children from parents who don't want them to chop off their body parts and put them in Minnesota Court's custody so the body parts can be chopped off"

THIS IS OBJECTIVELY FALSE
Read 10 tweets

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