Donating to @AlyseGalvin and @WilliamsForMT might be the most important political donations you give this year. And if you can’t donate, phone and text bank. I’ll explain the insanity of contingent elections below.
Before we get started I want to stress that our constitution is deeply stupid and antiquated and some of these ideas never should’ve passed the smell test to begin with. Yet here we are.
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the electoral college, the top 3 electoral college vote getters then go to a “contingent election” where the House decides the election. Weird, but simple, right? Lol no
Instead of each House member getting 1 vote, each state DELEGATION gets one vote. Vermont has 1 congressman. That’s worth just as much as the entire 53 congressmen from California voting. Each delegation votes, and then the winner of that vote gets the vote from the state.
While Democrats control the House, they don’t control the House delegations. They are tied in 2 (PA and MI, I have no idea what will happen in MN at the moment) and have 22 others. Republicans have 26, some like WI purely due to gerrymanders.
So let’s say, for argument’s sake, litigation clears up the MN-02 situation, we hold MN-07, and win PA-10 or PA-01 and MI-03 or MI-06. That would put us at 24 delegations. But AL and MT are close races, and flipping both of those seats gives us the entire state delegation
A win by @Michelle4Kansas would also split the KS delegation into a tie and take away GOP control. The only other states with a chance for us to win the majority of the delegation are far far reaches. Flipping these three seats could literally decide the election in a tie.
This is obviously a stupid, ill-conceived way to deal with an election. In 1824, the “popular vote” winner (Jackson, and evening if you call it winning the popular vote) ended up losing the contingent election to John Quincy Adams. So.
Anyways let’s not let it get to a tie but all of this underscores how antiquated our constitution is and how we desperately need real electoral reform to create representative government.
Not at all likely. But also not at all impossible. Keep going. 37 days.
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In AZ AG, Mayes is up by 771 votes.
Remaining:
Apache: 4,534
Cochise: 936
Coconino: 489
Gila: 55
Maricopa: 12,277
Mohave: 700
Navajo: 310
Pima: 5,416
Pina: 1,408
Yavapai: 750
Yuma: 670
EV Needed to Process: 9,695
Provisionals: 5,315
Ballots ready to Process: 12,985
Total: 27,545
If every single one of those provisionals counts (unlike), Hamadeh would need 51.40% of the remaining vote to win.
Yes, if the Apache votes are from the Navajo Nation, the math becomes harder for Hamadeh. Hopefully we know today. Hamadeh, thus far, is the last election denier left standing in a swing state that was up for election this year.
Lake continues to fall behind. She's running out of red county vote (only about 25k votes left there) and are still more votes left in the traditional D counties. Big question is what's to come from these last few Maricopa dumps. (fixed transposing error)
I think it's possible that Lake could get a 10% margin out of one or more of the remaining Maricopa batches. Where I'm skeptical is that she could somehow average that for the rest of what's left. Trump couldn't do that with a more R late ballot batch.
Coconino hasn't posted to the AZ SoS site yet, but it was the same story -- Lake now needs every county's remaining ballots to be more than 15% to the right of what the county is currently reporting to win. That's tough, if not very unlikely.
In the last small Coconino update that hasn't posted to the SoS page, Lake actually hit that 20% shift to the right that she needed -- but it was a small drop of only 2000ish votes (I think) and she needs that to be replicated everywhere. It's an extremely high hill to climb.
Today should give us a better guess, but the remaining vote by LD in Maricopa seems red but not overwhelmingly so, not to mention that Hobbs will continue to get votes out of Pima. And there are only 29509 votes left in the very red counties that Lake is winning.