1. Donald Trump's tax returns show that he is clearly a fraud - a fake businessman who used the impression that he was rich to get people to give him money, which he then effectively set on fire with business failures, which he then used to avoid paying federal income taxes.
2. There are two big angles to the returns: a) the fraud, both in terms of how he lied about his business acumen and how his tax returns raise questions of actual illegal tax fraud; and b) the disqualifying financial conflicts of interest that make him even more unfit for office.
3. The fraud: Trump ran on being a successful businessman who spun straw into gold. In reality, most of the gold he got came from his Dad or from reality TV, which he then invested into his businesses, that lost tens of millions of dollars. Politically, that's devastating.
4. There are also legit questions over whether he committed tax fraud, a felony. The way he paid Ivanka, for example, looks extremely suspect. This also raises questions about politicization of the IRS. Was he using his power to avoid / delay tax investigations? We need to know.
5. Then there's the tiny tax bill. Trump's federal income tax bill of $750 is obscene. It should spark much greater investment in tax enforcement and investigation funding at the IRS and also spur tax reform that limits such shady accounting for the (seemingly) rich.
6. But what I'm more worried about are the financial conflicts of interest. He's beholden to authoritarian governments. And he is about to have massive bills come due that he almost certainly can't pay. The incentives that creates for a president are terrifying & disqualifying.
7. So: Trump is a fraud who used the illusion of wealth as a grift to get money which he then squandered because he was so incompetent, all so that he could avoid paying his fair share of tax. He's deep in debt, is beholden to foreign despots, and may have committed tax fraud.
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1. Why is Biden stepping aside extremely good news for the Democrats? There are many reasons, but let me walk through some of the main ones.
—Reduced catastrophic risk
—Ability to prosecute the case against Trump
—Democratic disarray less likely because of anti-Trump motivation
2. Biden is an excellent president, but the risk of a repeat of the debate debacle closer to November was a catastrophic and uncontrollable risk. There’s nothing anyone could do about it and it *was* a serious possibility. If it happened again, Trump wins, guaranteed.
3. Even though the asymmetry of media coverage around Biden’s age was unfair, it’s reality. Now the focus will shift to Trump’s cognition, which is deranged and unhinged. We need to overcome the “banality of crazy”: forkingpaths.co/p/the-case-for…
1. *Nobody* knows what would happen if Biden steps down. It’s impossible! There is no relevant precedent. It’s not 1968! There’s never been an old felon authoritarian former president against an 82 year old incumbent. It’s radical uncertainty. I don’t know. Nor does anyone else.
2. Many of the voices suggesting Biden bow out are people who would crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. They believe—in good faith—the risks of Biden staying in are higher than the risks of bowing out. Maybe they’re wrong! But it’s silly to imagine there’s no issue.
3. It’s also silly to conflate the issue of whether Biden is better than Trump (yes, obviously, by a billion miles); whether Biden can be an excellent president (yes, obviously) with whether Biden is the best placed to win (perhaps, but perhaps not—we don’t and can’t know).
It’s called FLUKE: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters.
It’s the most interesting thing I’ve ever written—it drastically changed how I see the world—and I hope you’ll pre-order it. Read what it’s about here: simonandschuster.com/books/Fluke/Br…
Here’s the summary: “In the perspective-altering tradition of Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point and Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan comes a provocative challenge to how we think our world works—and why small, chance events can divert our lives and change everything.”
I’ve been lucky enough to receive incredible advance praise for “Fluke” from some ridiculously smart people, including @holland_tom @seanmcarroll @skdh and @jonathangottsch
`1. Researchers have identified a new personality trait that poses a particularly dangerous risk to democracy. It's called the "Need for Chaos."
Let me explain, starting with my favorite hate e-mail I've received. "Dear Brain," it began, a lovely compliment right off the bat...
2. At least he was polite. Anyone who writes about US politics gets these sort of e-mails. They get particularly vitriolic if you’re critical of Trump. They’re much worse if you’re a woman. (I’ve heard horror stories). But here's the thing about them... brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-need-for…
3. Consider the sociology behind them. What do they hope to achieve by calling me a Nazi clown? “Maybe I really am a Nazi clown?” I would wonder, as I cried myself to sleep, clutching the Panzer tank I had made in balloon form? Or maybe, just maybe, they have a Need for Chaos.
1. Fresh genomic evidence has emerged, suggesting that Covid came from a raccoon dog. At the same time, US government agencies have concluded that it came from a “lab leak” accident. We may never know the origin story with certainty. But there’s a bigger story we’re all missing.
2. The story so far is a strange one. New genomic data was discovered recently, by accident. When researchers analysed it, they found clear marches with raccoon dogs. So, they said so. But when they went back to look at the data, it had been removed. brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-missing-…
3. Now, people who are unqualified to understand the data are shouting at each other. The truth is: nobody has perfect certainty. But while we fixate on the origins of Covid, we aren’t thinking about how to prevent the next avoidable pandemic in the future brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-missing-…