I know it's not what we're all focused on today, but the Fed is out with the Survey of Consumer Finances -- its once-every-three-years snapshot of Americans' finances. This data is for *2019*, so it's a look back in time to life before the pandemic. nytimes.com/2020/09/28/bus…
The incomparable @jeannasmialek has our story, which has the key numbers and analysis. So start there! I'm still looking through the report, and will offer a few other tidbits in the thread below as I go.
Full data is here: federalreserve.gov/econres/scfind…
The biggest takeaway for me: Strong labor markets are good! The decade-long expansion brought the unemployment rate to its lowest level in half a century, and the result was rising incomes and rising net worth for low- and middle-income households.
The gloomier take: It took a record-long expansion to deliver broad-based economic gains, which were wiped out overnight by Covid. This is why economists are so worried about repeating the mistakes of the last recession: We don't want it to take another decade to get back here.
Key stat given the recent divergence between the stock market and the rest of the economy: 53% of families owned *any* stock in 2019, including holdings in retirement accounts, etc. Among families in the bottom half of the income distribution, only 31% owned any stock.
Even that stat probably overstates how much the stock market matters to most everyday Americans. The median stock holdings (including retirement accounts) among families in the bottom 50% of earners is < $10,000. (Note: That's excluding the 2/3 of families with no stocks at all.)
Among those in the 50th to 90th percentile of earners, median stock ownership in 2019 was $40,000.
Among the top 10% of earners, it was ***$438,500.***
This stat is always striking: Median net worth for Black families with a college degree ($72k) is roughly the same as for white families *without a high school diploma.*
Here it is another way: The typical white family in the middle of the income distribution (~$60k in income) has a net worth of about $150,000. The average Black family *in the same earnings category* has a net work of less than $50,000.
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This story is generating lots of reaction. Which is good! I think it's an important story. But also a nuanced one. And so a few points I think it's worth making, in a Saturday evening 🧵:
1. I'm getting lots of comments about how this is obviously political manipulation of the economic numbers. I don't think this is as cut-and-dry a case as it might look to some people.
For one thing, there are very real issues with the CPI's legal services index. See this screenshot -- the index hasn't been published regularly since early 2023. So looking for an alternative data source is hardly crazy on its face.
OK, so I imagine everyone has moved on from this by now, but since I finally have a few minutes, I thought I'd do a quick thread explaining this, since it is FAR from intuitive.
The question @TheStalwart is asking here is very reasonable. If year-over-year inflation is calculated by measuring the price level in November 2025 and comparing it to the price level in November 2024, then nothing that happens in the middle should matter.
But with shelter (and to some degree with other things, but I'm going to stick with shelter here), we *don't* actually calculate inflation that way. At least not really.
It's #jobsday! Except it isn't, because of the government shutdown. Which means that we're left sifting through alternative data sources to try to figure out what's going on in the labor market.
So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:
Start with job growth: Measures from ADP, Revelio, LinkedIn, etc., all tell subtly different stories, but they mostly agree on the big picture. After slowing dramatically over the summer, private-sector job growth has remained weak, but it hasn't necessarily slowed much further.
A few quick #JOLTS 📈:
Starting with: Job openings are way down from their peak, but they've fallen slowly if at all in recent months. No obvious sign that labor demand is falling off a cliff.
But it IS getting harder to find a job. There is now less than one job opening per unemployed worker. Not a low rate by historical standards, but definitely weaker than just before the pandemic (and way weaker than at the peak of the reopening boom).
The hiring rate (gross hiring, not the net job change we measure in the Friday jobs reports) has been below its long-run average for more than a year. It had seemed like it was leveling off, but might be falling again now, though hard to say definitively just yet.
President Trump didn't like the jobs numbers, so he fired the person responsible for producing them.
It's a move that has been tried before, by leaders of countries from Argentina to Greece to the Soviet Union. It rarely ends well.
(Link at end of thread)
Janet Yellen, not a person prone to hyperbole, put it this way: “This is the kind of thing you would only expect to see in a banana republic."
Key point from Andreas Georgiou, who was criminally prosecuted for insisting on reporting accurate deficit figures when he was head of Greece's statistical agency: Reliable data is essential for democracy.
CBO is out with its final cost estimate of the tax-and-spending bill passed by the House.
- Revenue ⬇️ by $3.7 trillion over 10 years
- Spending ⬇️ by $1.3 trillion
- Debt ⬆️ by $2.4 trillion over 10 years
- Uninsured pop. ⬆️ by 10.9 million in 2034
Full analysis: cbo.gov/publication/61…
The spending cuts mostly come from Medicaid ($344 billion over 10 years), food stamps and related programs ($295 billion) and the Affordable Care Act ($132 billion).
Note that these estimates don't take into account the macroeconomic impacts of the policy changes (it is not "dynamic" in wonk parlance). So to the extent tax/spending cuts affect economic growth, that will also affect revenues. CBO is working on an analysis that estimates these effects.