I know it's not what we're all focused on today, but the Fed is out with the Survey of Consumer Finances -- its once-every-three-years snapshot of Americans' finances. This data is for *2019*, so it's a look back in time to life before the pandemic. nytimes.com/2020/09/28/bus…
The incomparable @jeannasmialek has our story, which has the key numbers and analysis. So start there! I'm still looking through the report, and will offer a few other tidbits in the thread below as I go.
Full data is here: federalreserve.gov/econres/scfind…
The biggest takeaway for me: Strong labor markets are good! The decade-long expansion brought the unemployment rate to its lowest level in half a century, and the result was rising incomes and rising net worth for low- and middle-income households.
The gloomier take: It took a record-long expansion to deliver broad-based economic gains, which were wiped out overnight by Covid. This is why economists are so worried about repeating the mistakes of the last recession: We don't want it to take another decade to get back here.
Key stat given the recent divergence between the stock market and the rest of the economy: 53% of families owned *any* stock in 2019, including holdings in retirement accounts, etc. Among families in the bottom half of the income distribution, only 31% owned any stock.
Even that stat probably overstates how much the stock market matters to most everyday Americans. The median stock holdings (including retirement accounts) among families in the bottom 50% of earners is < $10,000. (Note: That's excluding the 2/3 of families with no stocks at all.)
Among those in the 50th to 90th percentile of earners, median stock ownership in 2019 was $40,000.
Among the top 10% of earners, it was ***$438,500.***
This stat is always striking: Median net worth for Black families with a college degree ($72k) is roughly the same as for white families *without a high school diploma.*
Here it is another way: The typical white family in the middle of the income distribution (~$60k in income) has a net worth of about $150,000. The average Black family *in the same earnings category* has a net work of less than $50,000.
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CBO is out with its final cost estimate of the tax-and-spending bill passed by the House.
- Revenue ⬇️ by $3.7 trillion over 10 years
- Spending ⬇️ by $1.3 trillion
- Debt ⬆️ by $2.4 trillion over 10 years
- Uninsured pop. ⬆️ by 10.9 million in 2034
Full analysis: cbo.gov/publication/61…
The spending cuts mostly come from Medicaid ($344 billion over 10 years), food stamps and related programs ($295 billion) and the Affordable Care Act ($132 billion).
Note that these estimates don't take into account the macroeconomic impacts of the policy changes (it is not "dynamic" in wonk parlance). So to the extent tax/spending cuts affect economic growth, that will also affect revenues. CBO is working on an analysis that estimates these effects.
So this was an interesting finding from @NateSilver538, but one I found odd because @BLS_gov publishes CPI for regions (and for some metro areas) but not for states. So I dug into it a bit, and there's less here than meets the eye.
Nate's data is coming from this tracker from the @JECRepublicans. They don't have a state-level inflation estimate either, though. They just use BLS's estimate of regional inflation and apply it to an estimate of household spending when Biden took office. jec.senate.gov/public/index.c…
You can see this if you hover over their map (or download their data). States in the same region all have the same cumulative rates of inflation. But they differ in the amount of inflation experienced in dollar terms because some states have higher avg household incomes.
I hate that @ellawinthrop is leaving us, but I'm so glad I got to work with her on her last piece for @nytimesbusiness. She's the best, most collaborative, most creative visual journalist I've ever worked with. A thread with a few of my favorite Ben-and-Ella collabs:
Good news on inflation! U.S. consumer prices FELL 0.1 percent in June, and were up just 3 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, stripping out volatile food and fuel, were up 0.1 percent from May and 3.3 percent from last June. Data: …Live coverage: bls.gov/news.release/c… nytimes.com/live/2024/07/1…
This is the second straight month where there has been effectively no inflation on a month-to-month basis. Prices were flat in May, and down in June.
If you take a longer view here: At 3% year-over-year, inflation is no longer outside historical norms (though it is still higher than immediately prepandemic). And over the past three months, rents have risen at an annual rate of ***just 1.1%.***
Job openings ticked up in May (but only because April was revised down). Layoffs edged up. Quits basically flat. All consistent with a gradually slowing, but not collapsing, job market. #JOLTS
Full data: bls.gov/news.release/j…
There were 8.1 million job openings on the last day of May. That's up from 7.9 million in April, revised down from the 8.1m originally reported.
Larger story here is that openings are clearly falling quickly, even if they're still high in absolute terms. #JOLTS
There were 1.2 job openings for every unemployed worker in May. That's more or less where things stood immediately before the pandemic (when the labor market was widely viewed as strong but not overheated).
The U.S. economy slowed in the final three months of the year, but only because the Q3 number was so strong -- the 3.3% growth rate in Q4 was well above expectations and certainly offered no hints of a brewing recession. (Belated charts thread)
This is not a case where the volatile components of G.D.P. made a weak quarter look strong, as sometimes happens. Measures of underlying demand were also very strong.
For all the predictions of a recession, G.D.P. growth actually *accelerated* in 2023, and topped the prepandemic average growth rate as well.