The U.S. economy slowed in the final three months of the year, but only because the Q3 number was so strong -- the 3.3% growth rate in Q4 was well above expectations and certainly offered no hints of a brewing recession. (Belated charts thread)

https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1750512251415461975

This is not a case where the volatile components of G.D.P. made a weak quarter look strong, as sometimes happens. Measures of underlying demand were also very strong.

Job openings, quits and layoffs all edged down slightly in November. Consistent with a gradually cooling labor market, but definitely no sign things are falling off a cliff. #JOLTS
Data: bls.gov/news.release/j… There were 8.8 million job openings on the last day of November. That's down a touch from October, but only because October was revised up. Big picture: Openings are trending down (and quite quickly, at that), but are still high by historical standards. #JOLTS

The U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%.
Data:
Full coverage: bls.gov/news.release/e…
nytimes.com/live/2023/09/0… June/July revised down by combined 110,000 jobs.

The U.S. economy added 209k jobs in June and the unemployment rate edged back down to 3.6%.
#jobsday
Data:
Full coverage: https://t.co/JfXzKGVrCqbls.gov/news.release/e…
nytimes.com/live/2023/07/0… Modest downward revisions to both April and May, by a combined 110k jobs.

U.S. employers added 253k jobs in April, defying (yet again) predictions of a slowdown. The unemployment rate ticked back down to 3.4%.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/05/0… Notably February and March both revised down, by a combined 149k jobs.

As expected, the Fed raised interest rates by another quarter point, its tenth increase in a bit more than a year. Rates are now the highest they've been since 2007, before the global financial crisis.
Statement: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/05/0… March statement: "The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate..."
May statement: "In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time..."

Was tied up this morning, but #JOLTS looks interesting enough that it's worth a belated/abridged charts thread. I'm sure lots of others have already hit many of these points (looking at you, @nick_bunker, @DanielBZhao) but I can't resist. Labor demand is clearly cooling. Job openings fell for the third straight month. Still high by historical standards, but now clearly falling (and quite rapidly).

For weeks now, I've been thinking about what to make of the U.S. economy right now. The job market is good -- historically good. Inflation is cooling. So why does it feel like another shoe is about to drop?
In the @nytimes today, I try to make sense of it
nytimes.com/2023/04/14/bus… Let's start here: The recovery from the pandemic recession has been nothing short of remarkable. Three years ago this month, the unemployment rate was nearly 15 percent. We'd lost 22 million jobs in a matter of weeks.

Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in March, and were up 5.0 percent from a year earlier.
Core price (ex food/energy) up 0.4 percent from Feb., 5.6 percent from a year ago.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/c…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/04/1… The 5% increase in overall consumer prices is the slowest pace of year-over-year inflation since April 2021. Core inflation, though, has declined more slowly, which is part of why the Fed remains concerned.

U.S. employers added 311k jobs last month. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Live coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/03/1… Lots of talk (including by me!) that we might see a big downward revision to the January figure, but no: January revised down by a modest 13k, to +504k. December revised down by 21k to +239k.

There were 10.8 million job openings at the end of January, down slightly from an upwardly-revised 11.2 million in December.
Layoffs up slightly. Quits down slightly. All consistent with a gradually cooling (but still hot) labor market. #JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j… The exception, of course, is hiring -- way up in January, to 6.1 million from 4.6 million in December. (Remember, these are gross figures, not net like in the monthly jobs report.) Consistent with the big gain we we saw in the jobs report last month.

WOW: U.S. employers added a whopping 517,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/02/0… November/December both revised up, by combined 71k. That's separate from the benchmark revisions throughout 2022.

Tomorrow is #JobsDay, my favorite day of the month! Except that tomorrow's report is going to be so, so, SO annoying. Quick, nerdy thread on why: First, population adjustments! For the January jobs data every year, @BLS_gov incorporates updated population estimates into the Current Population Survey (the source of data on the labor force, unemployment, etc).

Overall employment costs rose 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 1.2% in Q3. Up 5.1% from a year earlier.
Pretty much same story for private-sector wages and salaries: up 1.0% q/q, 5.1% year-over-year.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e… Some signs of a slowdown in one of the most closely watched series:
Private-sector wages & salaries, excluding incentive pay, grew 0.9% in Q4, a slowdown from 1.2% in Q3. Year-over-year rate down to 5.2% from 5.6%.

December income/spending data from @BEA_News:
Consumer spending: -0.2%
After-tax income: +0.3%
Consumer prices: +0.1% m/m, +5.0% y/y
Core prices: +0.3% m/m, +4.4% y/y
Full data: bea.gov/news/2023/pers… Consumer spending has been the engine keeping the economy moving forward over the past year. So it's a big deal that it fell in December. November also revised down from a small increase to a small decline.

U.S. consumer prices *fell* 0.1% in December. Year-over-year inflation slowed to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
Excluding food and energy, prices were up 0.3% from November and 5.7% from a year earlier.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/c…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/01/1… Energy prices down 4.5% last month (gasoline down 9.4%). Used cards down 2.5%. Airfares down 3.1%. But rents up 0.8%.

U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%.
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2022/12/0…
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e… September revised down, October revised up. Nets out to a modest (-23k) downward revision.

For the Morning newsletter today, I looked at how higher interest rates are playing out very differently for homeowners on either side of the Atlantic.
nytimes.com/2022/12/01/bri… In the U.S., most homeowners have 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. That partly insulates them from the impact of both rising rates and high inflation: Their housing costs are fixed.

October income/spending data:
After-tax income: +0.7% (+0.4% inflation-adjusted)
Consumer spending: +0.8% (+0.5%)
Consumer prices: +0.3% (6% y/y)
Prices, ex-food/energy: +0.2% (5% y/y)
Data: bea.gov/news/2022/pers… The continued strength of real consumer spending is pretty remarkable. Accelerating over the past few months as inflation has eased.

Job openings and quits both continued to edge down in October. Layoffs remain extremely low. #JOLTS
DATA: bls.gov/news.release/j… There were 10.3 million job openings at the end of October, down from 10.7 million in September and a peak of close to 12 million early this year. Still very high by historical standards, but now clearly coming down.

Third-quarter G.D.P. growth was revised up modestly, to +2.9% (annualized) from +2.6% in the initial estimate. The details look a bit stronger too: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (a measure of underling demand) now +0.5% annualized, vs. +0.1% in the initial estimate. On the other hand, Gross Domestic Income (an alternate measure of economic output) rose just 0.3% annualized in Q3. (This is the first estimate for Q3 G.D.I.)