Trinh Profile picture
Sep 29, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Reading about pension systems in Asia & it makes me wonder if people in general understand that life isn't linear but clearly terminal. As in it looks something like the below chart & whether we go into the sunset gracefully depends on how we spend our youth (or not spend).
Or like this. In my mid thirties so I should be in my peak saving mode & even more so in the next decades.

Wonder if high school students are taught this. We all will get old & can't work forever (or work in a different way that is less taxing on the body) so have to prepare.
Of course what I'm talking about is an individual level. Pension systems are a systemic way to deal w/ aging. Anyway, interesting stuff. US social security is something that we don't have in most of Asia (systemic saving & spending to help elderly Americans irrespective of income
Some people say, well, u know, we wait for our kids to be our pension (kids get jobs & give parents housing + livelihood as parents did the same).

Why? In East Asia, only a few economies have basic pension system. Do u know what that is? U get a pension regardless of income.
Just b/c u have social security (free medicare + monthly income) doesn't mean that's enough to age gracefully but definitely one less thing to worry about. Anyway, interest rates & investment return & growth all relevant to pension system & the biggest destruction of it is NIRP!

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More from @Trinhnomics

May 13
This article in the FT doesn't make any sense. The author argues that Modi fails to create job for low-skilled people, esp labor-intensive manufacturing. It also faults Modi for its high-end growth (services, high-tech, infra, etc)

But then it ends with saying, well, don't bother to even develop manufacturing and just work on service exports.

Wait a minute. How is India going to generate jobs? ft.com/content/c4631d…
Btw, all the critiques of India makes sense. The issue I have with Rajan and also Congress is their solutions.

They don't have one. Literally. Rajan tells India to forget about trying to do manufacturing & focuses on services.

India exports a lot of services. Manufacturing is the weak spot, not services!!! And if u want a lot of jobs, u need labor-intensive manufacturing.
A country with such a large population needs to growth via all sectors - services, manufacturing, agriculture etc. You can't leapfrog development & go to services.

India & the Philippines have tried that. Not working & hence need to include manufacturing & infrastructure building.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 19
Who likes higher fuel prices in Asia??? Well, no one except Indonesia and Malaysia and by that I mean exporters.

The biggest deficit as a share of GDP goes to Thailand but mostly in LNG. Second is South Korea.

Obvs this is as a share of GDP. Higher fuel costs = higher import costs = someone has to pay for it & eg higher inflation or higher fiscal costs.Image
Who likes higher food prices? Well, a few - Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and India. Obvs this is EXPORTERS only who gain. EM has high food as a share of consumption basket. But net food exporters have levers to pull. They can BAN exporting of food.

Who is most vulnerable? The Philippines. South Korea imports a lot too.Image
Putting food and fuel together as a share of GDP: Who is most exposed?

Well, South Korea and the Philippines. KRW doesn't like this news.

PHP doesn't like it. One caveat is that SK is much richer so can afford it more than say PH where this will hurt more.

Winners? Malaysia. Yes, Malaysia.Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 12
Good morning,

Did you know that South Korea exports more to the US now than it does to China?

Actually, it isn't alone. A lot of Asian countries, due to supply chain reshuffling and also geopolitics and industrial policies, are exporting now more to US than China.

Why is South Korea doing more trade with a country far away than a country next door?Image
First, growth of exports to the US is faster than exports to China. In fact, China hasn't been importing much more and it is Korea that has been importing more from China for goods such as intermediate goods etc.

This has raised a big concern in Korea that China is a competitor & it's hard for SK to compete with its industrial policy and subsidies.Image
And so South Korea has 1 lever it can pull that is better than China - GEOPOLITICS. South Korea is an ally to the US. And as a country w/ a US FTA, it is being favored.

Whether it's the Chips Act or the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the whole point is to exclude China.

So what?
Read 8 tweets
Feb 8
Another Five Years of Jokonomics? More Infrastructure, Metals and Mining FDI, and Even Greater Dependency on China

A thread 🧵
Image
Indonesia elects a new president in a week. The leading candidate is riding high on Jokonomics, or the continuation of his policy & popularity, as Jokowi's eldest son is VP.

Prabowo promises 8% average GDP growth or Jokonomics. How realistic & what is Jokonomics anyway? Image
While people believe that Prabowo is the best bet of doing more of what popular Jokowi has done for Indonesia in the past decade & he promises the highest growth, Jokowi 10-year only produced 4.2% GDP growth on average. Stripping out 2020 (Covid), it's 4.9%. No where near 8% 👈 Image
Read 26 tweets
Feb 6
Indonesia elects a new president next week to replace Jokowi. The leading candidate - Prabowo - is riding the president's coat tail as many hope that he is the best hope for continuation. But what is Jokonomics exactly? From 2014 to 2023, Indonesia grew on average 4.2% per yr👈.
If we strip out 2020, which economy contracted, then under Jokowi, the economy grew 4.9% on average (4.2% if we don't strip it out).

So that's sub 5%. In fact, GDP barely deviates from 5% level. So why do people think that Prabowo is the key to escape the middle income trap?
Pres Jokowi's biggest accomplishments come from the fiscal side. Indonesia got investment grade in 2017. By weaning Indonesia slowly off expensive energy subsides, the expenditure side was contained. And with the commodity boom, Indonesia fiscal positions were leaner than most.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 2
Today is 2 Feb and we're basically two years since the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022.

So what you say? Well, since then, Asian FX has lost grounds to the USD, except SGD & HKD.

JPY lost -21.5%
CNH -12.1%
MYR -11.4%
TWD -10.2%
KRW -9.4%
INR -9.2%
AUD -9.1%
IDR -8.7%
What we know is that the Fed took rates from 0.25% to 5.5% or +5.25% increase, which is the sharpest since the 1980s of tightening cycle.

On top of this, it also has to wean down its massive balance sheet (BS) by letting 60bn UST & 35bn MBS roll off.

So what? Well, USD rallied.
People thought that in 2022, the Fed would only hike ever so meagerly but it kept going.

People thought that in 2023, the Fed would CUT because, well, the economy would crack but it kept going until July 2023 at 5.5%.

People thought that the Fed would CUT in March 2024 but...
Read 8 tweets

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